Real Betis return to the Bernabéu after a 2-5 loss to Levante, their last five games showing a win-winning streak interrupted by a defeat. Real Madrid, on a five-game winning run that included a 4-0 demolition of Málaga, are the clear favorites with a 51% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability and a 24% chance for Betis. The model projects an average of 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total is 2, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.3% chance.
Betis, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.33 conceded. Madrid, away against a weaker side, average 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.5% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.7% with a 7% edge), Under 5.5 (95.7% with an 11% edge) and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5% with a 16% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Betis win
23.6%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.77
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.30
Pinnacle
7.08
Betfair
7.00
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied 18.2% · @ 5.22
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.60
1xBet
5.43
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.35
Real Madrid win
51.5%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.40
Edge
-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Betis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.69
1.19
1.14
1.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.33
1.75
1.00
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.10
2.75
0.94
1.57
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.78
2.25
1.25
1.60
2.20
vs Weaker (21)
2.33
0.81
2.92
0.83
1.56
0.78
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Betis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.09-3.9%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 6.47+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.5%
@ 1.37-10.3%
Under 2.5
41.5%
@ 3.01+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.04
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.1%
@ 1.95-12.9%
Under 3.5
63.9%
@ 1.87+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.01
SBO
1.99
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.53-1.1%
No
40.3%
@ 2.38+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
No
Betfair
2.50
William Hil
2.40
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 10.08+7.0%
1-2
9.7%@ 8.05+3.9%
0-2
8.2%@ 8.99+2.9%
0-1
7.8%@ 10.65+3.4%
2-1
6.3%@ 17.97+3.7%
1-3
6.0%@ 9.52+1.0%
0-0
5.9%@ 20.64+3.6%
2-2
5.8%@ 13.76+2.4%
Real Betis goals ↓
Real Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.8%
8.2%
5.0%
2.3%
1
4.7%
12%
9.7%
6.0%
2.7%
2
3.4%
6.3%
5.8%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.3%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Betis goals (down), columns = Real Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Betis is 0.68 points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 2.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Betis is 0.47 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Betis is 0.34 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Betis is 9.2 percentage points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average possession (50% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Betis
For 4.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 14.7 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Betis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.2
9.8
4.4
4.5
4.2
23.4
23.6
23.1
vs Stronger (8)
10.1
9.6
11.0
3.4
4.0
2.3
21.0
23.2
17.3
vs Similar (32)
8.6
7.4
9.6
5.2
5.3
5.1
24.2
24.8
23.6
vs Weaker (10)
9.9
10.0
9.8
2.5
1.3
3.0
22.4
18.3
24.8
% over line
44%
17%
68%
64%
65%
63%
69%
74%
64%
% under line
56%
83%
32%
36%
35%
37%
31%
26%
36%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.0
10.4
4.8
4.8
4.9
23.6
23.5
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
11.5
12.6
10.4
6.0
5.1
6.9
23.7
24.4
23.0
vs Weaker (36)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.4
4.6
4.2
23.6
23.1
24.1
% over line
62%
62%
62%
60%
50%
69%
64%
62%
65%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
40%
50%
31%
36%
38%
35%
This opponent (Real Betis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.68-7.8%
Under 9.5
52.2%
@ 2.10+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
@ 1.53+11.7%
Under 3.5
27.1%
@ 2.42-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.68
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.5%
@ 1.64+15.6%
Under 21.5
28.5%
@ 2.08-15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.64
Under
1xBet
2.08
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Betis or Draw
56.2%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.92
Edge
+23.8%
24%
25%
51%
covers Real Betis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Real Betis or Real Madrid
71.2%
Avg Implied 82.2% · @ 1.15
Edge
-11.0%
24%
25%
51%
covers Real Betis + Real Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Draw or Real Madrid
72.7%
Avg Implied 85.5% · @ 1.11
Edge
-12.8%
24%
25%
51%
covers Draw + Real Madrid
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Betis over/under 0.5
Over
66.3%
@ 1.43+1.2%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.67-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.76
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.67
Real Betis over/under 1.5
Over
29.7%
@ 3.08-0.6%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.34+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.26
Unibet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.12
1xBet
3.12
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Real Betis over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
@ 7.80-2.2%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Real Betis over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
@ 20.33-2.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Real Madrid over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
@ 1.05-12.9%
Under
23.7%
@ 8.66+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Under
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Real Madrid over/under 1.5
Over
42.1%
@ 1.31-29.0%
Under
57.9%
@ 3.24+29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Real Madrid over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
@ 2.01-29.0%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.75+29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Real Madrid over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
@ 3.59-20.2%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.26+20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.86
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Betis, so a minus line means Real Betis give that many goals of a start and Real Madrid receive them. At -1, Real Betis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Betis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Betis)
Real Betis -2
3.3%
@ 41.33+1.0%
Draw -2
7.7%
@ 19.00+2.7%
Real Madrid +2
89.0%
@ 1.02-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
51.00
Superbet
39.00
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Superbet
19.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Handicap -1 (Real Betis)
Real Betis -1
11.0%
@ 12.65+4.0%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 7.69+4.7%
Real Madrid +1
72.7%
@ 1.10-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Handicap +1 (Real Betis)
Real Betis +1
56.2%
@ 2.95+25.5%
Draw +1
21.9%
@ 3.92-1.2%
Real Madrid -1
21.9%
@ 1.96-24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Handicap +2 (Real Betis)
Real Betis +2
78.1%
@ 1.76+26.7%
Draw +2
13.5%
@ 4.29-7.6%
Real Madrid -2
8.4%
@ 3.28-19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Betis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.88
0.62
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.62
0.83
0.50
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
1.25
0.44
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.38
1.33
0.33
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Betis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.20-7.5%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 4.25+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.80
Superbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 1.99-12.3%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.78+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Under
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 4.10-10.2%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.21+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
William Hil
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Betis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.3%
@ 2.47+2.6%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.49-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
1xBet
2.47
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Under
Marathonbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Real Betis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.2%
@ 8.35-0.8%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.04+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Betano
7.70
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Real Betis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
@ 24.50-2.5%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.7%
@ 1.40-16.0%
Under
49.3%
@ 2.80+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
Superbet
2.87
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.67
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.2%
@ 2.87-14.0%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.37+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.02
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Under
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
@ 6.90-8.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.07+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Betis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.81
0.56
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.71
0.92
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.43
1.58
0.50
1.11
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Betis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.11-5.3%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 6.08+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Betano
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.7%
@ 1.57-13.9%
Under 1.5
54.3%
@ 2.32+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Under
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
@ 2.76-14.6%
Under 2.5
80.7%
@ 1.42+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.90
William Hil
2.90
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Betis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.1%
@ 2.01+1.8%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.73-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.69
Real Betis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.0%
@ 6.03-1.4%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
1xBet
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Real Betis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 16.25-2.8%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.3%
@ 1.26-14.8%
Under
40.7%
@ 3.60+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.0%
@ 2.18-19.5%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.61+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.7%
@ 4.70-12.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.16+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+5.2%
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
+8.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+12.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
+8.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
+12.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+2.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+0.8%
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-3.8%
Under 4.5
88.8%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+19.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+10.2%
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
1.25
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.22
-
-
-
+12.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+15.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.8%
1.37
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
+14.0%
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-3.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.42
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
+14.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-5.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.61
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
+19.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
76.3%
1.05
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
-12.9%
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
1.43
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.38
+10.6%
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
1.53
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.44
-
+11.7%
Draw or Away
72.7%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-12.8%
Away +1 handicap
72.7%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-8.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
71.5%
1.64
1xBet
1.64
-
-
-
-
+15.6%
Home or Away
71.2%
1.15
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
-11.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.20
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-7.5%
Home under 1.5 goals
70.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
+0.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Betis
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rodrigo Riquelme67%
Pablo García33%
Fran García0%
Isco0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Pablo Fornals0%
Antony0%
Álvaro Valles0%
Cucho Hernández0%
Nelson Deossa0%
Facundo Bernal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran García33%
Héctor Bellerín33%
Pablo García33%
Isco0%
Pablo Fornals0%
Antony0%
Álvaro Valles0%
Cucho Hernández0%
Rodrigo Riquelme0%
Nelson Deossa0%
Facundo Bernal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fran García33%
Cucho Hernández33%
Isco0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Pablo Fornals0%
Antony0%
Álvaro Valles0%
Rodrigo Riquelme0%
Nelson Deossa0%
Facundo Bernal0%
Pablo García0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antony67%
Rodrigo Riquelme33%
Nelson Deossa33%
Fran García0%
Isco0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Pablo Fornals0%
Álvaro Valles0%
Cucho Hernández0%
Facundo Bernal0%
Pablo García0%
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Betis's squad is €1222m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€235m vs €1456m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Betis's attack is €711m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€131m vs €842m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Betis's midfield is €204m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€33m vs €238m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Betis's defence is €307m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€70m vs €377m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga