This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.60
1.07
1.27
0.80
1.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.80
0.50
1.17
0.75
2.75
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.50
1.44
1.33
0.82
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.53-1.6%
Under 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.51+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.1%
3-0 ✓
11.9%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.6%
1-1
7.2%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.0%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Alaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
10%
7.2%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
2
14%
8.3%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
7.1%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
7.6%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Alaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.26
Barcelona
1.92
Atletico Madrid
1.87
Sevilla
1.84
Real Betis
1.71
Real Sociedad
1.63
Villarreal
1.55
Athletic Club
1.45
Valencia
1.26
Osasuna
1.24
Celta Vigo
1.21
Rayo Vallecano
1.11
Espanyol
1.11
Elche
1.11
Getafe
1.03
Cadiz
1.03
Mallorca
1.03
Granada CF
1.00
Levante
0.92
Alaves
0.82
Real Madrid is 1.45 points better than Alaves in terms of average points per game (2.26 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Real Madrid
2.11
Barcelona
1.79
Atletico Madrid
1.71
Villarreal
1.66
Real Betis
1.63
Sevilla
1.39
Levante
1.34
Valencia
1.26
Granada CF
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Celta Vigo
1.13
Real Sociedad
1.05
Espanyol
1.05
Elche
1.05
Rayo Vallecano
1.03
Osasuna
0.97
Mallorca
0.95
Cadiz
0.92
Getafe
0.87
Alaves
0.82
Real Madrid is 1.29 goals better than Alaves in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sevilla
0.79
Real Madrid
0.82
Athletic Club
0.95
Real Sociedad
0.97
Villarreal
0.97
Barcelona
1.00
Real Betis
1.05
Getafe
1.08
Celta Vigo
1.13
Atletico Madrid
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Cadiz
1.34
Osasuna
1.34
Elche
1.37
Espanyol
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Granada CF
1.61
Mallorca
1.66
Alaves
1.71
Levante
2.00
Real Madrid is 0.89 goals better than Alaves in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 6.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 14.7 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
For 3.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 13.5 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.0
3.5
4.6
24.0
23.5
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
9.5
10.0
9.0
5.2
6.5
4.0
29.0
29.0
29.0
vs Weaker (46)
9.5
10.0
9.0
3.9
3.2
4.6
23.5
23.1
24.0
% over line
50%
54%
46%
50%
38%
62%
70%
65%
75%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
50%
62%
38%
30%
35%
25%
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.6
10.2
4.6
5.2
4.0
28.0
27.2
28.8
vs Stronger (18)
10.2
9.1
11.2
3.5
3.6
3.4
26.0
24.7
27.3
vs Similar (30)
9.0
8.3
9.8
5.4
6.4
4.3
29.0
28.7
29.3
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
10.0
7.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
31.0
28.0
34.0
% over line
46%
44%
48%
60%
64%
56%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
40%
36%
44%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Athletic Club
10.4
Espanyol
10.3
Valencia
9.7
Real Betis
9.6
Cadiz
9.6
Real Madrid
9.5
Alaves
9.4
Atletico Madrid
9.4
Villarreal
9.4
Levante
9.0
Granada CF
8.9
Elche
8.8
Rayo Vallecano
8.7
Mallorca
8.7
Real Sociedad
8.6
Barcelona
8.5
Sevilla
8.4
Osasuna
8.3
Getafe
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Valencia
6.1
Getafe
5.9
Mallorca
5.7
Rayo Vallecano
5.5
Granada CF
5.4
Celta Vigo
5.4
Espanyol
5.3
Cadiz
5.0
Atletico Madrid
4.9
Levante
4.8
Sevilla
4.8
Elche
4.8
Real Betis
4.8
Real Sociedad
4.7
Alaves
4.6
Barcelona
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Osasuna
4.1
Real Madrid
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rayo Vallecano
30.7
Mallorca
29.6
Valencia
29.3
Getafe
29.1
Celta Vigo
28.4
Alaves
28.0
Real Sociedad
27.4
Elche
27.0
Barcelona
26.7
Granada CF
26.6
Espanyol
26.5
Real Betis
26.4
Atletico Madrid
26.0
Levante
25.8
Sevilla
25.3
Athletic Club
25.3
Villarreal
25.2
Osasuna
24.6
Cadiz
24.1
Real Madrid
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.0%
Under 3.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
82.6%
Under 21.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.62
0.44
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
0.61
0.39
0.60
0.47
0.62
0.31
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.17
0.17
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.75
0.56
0.89
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.31
0.25
1.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.36
0.43
1.33
0.27
1.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.10
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.75
0.89
0.44
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
78.9%
1.22
-
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Alaves · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariano Díaz67%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Denis Suárez0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mariano Díaz67%
Abderrahman Rebbach67%
Denis Suárez33%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Antonio Sivera33%
Antonio Blanco33%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mariano Díaz33%
Ángel Pérez33%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Martínez67%
Antonio Blanco33%
Mariano Díaz0%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (26)
€48m
CAD (29)
€27m
GC (18)
€17m
Real Madrid's squad is €1388m more valuable than Alaves's (€1456m vs €68m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
CAD (12)
€11m
GC (5)
€6m
Real Madrid's attack is €818m more valuable than Alaves's (€842m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
CAD (5)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
Real Madrid's midfield is €215m more valuable than Alaves's (€238m vs €22m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
CAD (12)
€12m
GC (10)
€9m
Real Madrid's defence is €355m more valuable than Alaves's (€377m vs €22m).
Spain: La Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Real Betis
Real Sociedad
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Valencia
Osasuna
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Espanyol
Getafe
Cadiz
Mallorca
Granada CF
Levante