Real Madrid’s dominance at the Bernabéu is clear: the model gives them an 82% chance to win, 13% for a draw and 5% for a Rayo Vallecano victory, making a home win the single most likely outcome. The average expected goals rise to 3.6, with the most probable total being three goals at 21%. The single scoreline the model favours is 2-0, with an 11.8% probability, reflecting Madrid’s 2.92 average goals scored and only 0.83 conceded at home against weaker opposition. Rayo Vallecano, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.83 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, underscoring their defensive fragility.
Suggested picks include: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.6%, Away under 3.5 goals99.4% (edge 6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals98.8% (edge 6%), Home +2 handicap98.5%, Under 7.596.8% (edge 3%), Away under 2.5 goals96.6% (edge 2%), Away under 1.5 HT goals95.0% (edge 3%), and Home over 0.5 goals94.7% (edge 2%). These selections mirror Madrid’s attacking potency and Rayo’s defensive struggles, reinforcing the model’s confidence in a decisive home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Madrid win
81.8%
Avg Implied 83.2% · @ 1.14
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Dafabet
1.14
Draw
12.8%
Avg Implied 11.4% · @ 8.27
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.20
Dafabet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.90
Bet365
8.50
Pinnacle
8.44
Rayo Vallecano win
5.4%
Avg Implied 5.4% · @ 17.54
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
21.00
Marathonbet
20.50
Betano
20.00
10Bet
19.50
William Hil
17.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.10
2.75
0.94
1.57
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.78
2.25
1.25
1.60
2.20
vs Weaker (21)
2.33
0.81
2.92
0.83
1.56
0.78
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.57
0.79
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.50
1.33
2.17
0.67
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.22
1.12
0.88
1.10
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.7%
@ 1.08+1.1%
Under 1.5
12.3%
@ 6.97-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Under
1xBet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.3%
@ 1.31-2.2%
Under 2.5
30.7%
@ 3.29+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.0%
@ 1.82-4.2%
Under 3.5
52.0%
@ 1.99+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Unibet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Under
SBO
2.09
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Both teams to score
Yes
47.2%
@ 1.98+0.2%
No
52.8%
@ 1.75-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
No
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%@ 7.04+5.4%
3-0
11.4%@ 6.92+4.8%
4-0
8.2%@ 8.68+3.0%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.73+3.4%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.65+3.0%
1-0
7.6%@ 9.78+3.0%
1-1
6.1%@ 14.37+2.9%
4-1
5.6%@ 12.00+1.8%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
1
7.6%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
2
12%
8.0%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
7.7%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
8.2%
5.6%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Madrid is 0.95 points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (2.26 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Madrid is 0.95 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Madrid is 0.24 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Madrid is 5.9 percentage points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average possession (59% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 14.7 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 4.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.3
10.8
4.3
4.5
4.2
23.4
23.5
23.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
11.7
12.6
10.7
5.0
4.5
5.6
23.2
24.4
21.7
vs Weaker (35)
10.8
10.8
10.8
4.1
4.5
3.7
23.5
23.1
23.8
% over line
67%
65%
70%
54%
46%
62%
63%
61%
65%
% under line
33%
35%
30%
46%
54%
38%
37%
39%
35%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.5
5.5
5.0
5.9
25.4
23.3
27.2
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
9.9
10.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
24.9
25.6
24.1
vs Similar (34)
10.8
11.6
10.2
5.5
4.6
6.4
25.5
22.3
28.3
vs Weaker (2)
14.0
-
14.0
1.5
-
1.5
29.0
-
29.0
% over line
67%
73%
62%
72%
70%
74%
81%
73%
88%
% under line
33%
27%
38%
28%
30%
26%
19%
27%
12%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.5%
@ 1.35-6.4%
Under 9.5
38.5%
@ 2.85+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.35
Under
Unibet
2.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.2%
Under 3.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.1%
Under 21.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Madrid or Draw
94.6%
Avg Implied 94.0% · @ 1.02
Edge
+0.6%
82%
13%
5%
covers Real Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Real Madrid or Rayo Vallecano
87.4%
Avg Implied 89.4% · @ 1.07
Edge
-2.0%
82%
13%
5%
covers Real Madrid + Rayo Vallecano
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Draw or Rayo Vallecano
18.0%
Avg Implied 16.6% · @ 5.78
Edge
+1.4%
82%
13%
5%
covers Draw + Rayo Vallecano
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Betano
6.00
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5
Over
94.7%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Under
5.3%
@ 13.25-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
17.00
1xBet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Real Madrid over/under 1.5
Over
79.2%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Under
20.8%
@ 4.49+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Real Madrid over/under 2.5
Over
56.4%
@ 1.56-3.3%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.31+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Real Madrid over/under 3.5
Over
34.0%
@ 2.45-4.1%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.50+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Unibet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5
Over
50.2%
@ 1.92+1.9%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.80-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Under
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5
Over
15.5%
@ 5.71-0.8%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.11+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
@ 16.25-2.5%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Rayo Vallecano over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
@ 14.00-6.2%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Madrid, so a minus line means Real Madrid give that many goals of a start and Rayo Vallecano receive them. At -1, Real Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Madrid)
Real Madrid -2
42.2%
@ 2.00-2.7%
Draw -2
21.4%
@ 4.05-0.7%
Rayo Vallecano +2
36.4%
@ 2.71+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.70
Away
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Handicap -1 (Real Madrid)
Real Madrid -1
63.6%
@ 1.39-1.1%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 4.61-1.2%
Rayo Vallecano +1
18.0%
@ 5.70+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Draw
Marathonbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Handicap +1 (Real Madrid)
Real Madrid +1
94.6%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Draw +1
3.9%
@ 14.33-2.6%
Rayo Vallecano -1
1.5%
@ 33.67-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
41.00
10Bet
19.00
Handicap +2 (Real Madrid)
Real Madrid +2
98.5%
Draw +2
1.2%
Rayo Vallecano -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
1.25
0.44
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.38
1.33
0.33
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.21
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
1.17
0.17
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.56
0.12
0.25
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.18-1.3%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 4.55+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
William Hil
4.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.7%
@ 1.90-4.8%
Under 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.86+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
Under
SBO
1.99
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 3.80-7.6%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.24+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.94
Marathonbet
3.94
Betano
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HT
Over
69.4%
@ 1.26-4.5%
Under
30.6%
@ 3.57+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.30
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.5%
@ 2.30-11.9%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.55+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.34
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.2%
@ 5.13-9.9%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.13+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.0%
@ 3.52+3.7%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.26-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.76
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.0%
@ 11.50-3.2%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.43
1.58
0.50
1.11
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
1.00
0.57
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.0%
@ 1.10+1.3%
Under 0.5
13.0%
@ 6.58-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Under
1xBet
7.60
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.40
Betano
6.40
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.1%
@ 1.52-5.2%
Under 1.5
43.9%
@ 2.41+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
10Bet
2.45
Bet365
2.38
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.1%
@ 2.58-5.3%
Under 2.5
68.9%
@ 1.48+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.57
10Bet
2.45
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.3%
@ 1.16-1.0%
Under
20.7%
@ 4.72+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.65
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2H
Over
44.4%
@ 1.76-8.3%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.96+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2H
Over
17.4%
@ 3.33-10.5%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.29+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.8%
@ 2.80+3.6%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.39-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.35
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.7%
@ 10.08-1.6%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
@ 14.00-5.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home +2 handicap
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
Home or Draw
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
+0.6%
Home +1 handicap
94.6%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
Under 6.5
92.4%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
-
-
+9.9%
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
+1.1%
Home or Away
87.4%
1.07
1xBet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-2.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.10
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+1.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
84.5%
1.11
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+0.8%
Under 5.5
83.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+3.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.0%
1.24
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+7.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-
-
+10.5%
Home win
81.8%
1.14
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Dafabet
1.14
-1.4%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.16
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-1.0%
Home over 1.5 goals
79.2%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-0.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.1%
1.18
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-1.3%
Over 21.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
73.1%
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
-
-2.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.5%
1.55
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
+11.9%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
-3.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Rayo Vallecano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Madrid's squad is €1381m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€1456m vs €76m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Madrid's attack is €812m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€842m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Madrid's midfield is €228m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€238m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Madrid's defence is €341m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€377m vs €36m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Elche
Malaga