Real Sociedad face Atletico Madrid in a La Liga clash that the model favours as an away win, with a 44% chance of Atletico taking the points. The match is expected to see an average of three goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.2% probability. Real Sociedad’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger opponents, while Atletico Madrid’s away record against weaker teams yields 1.5 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The home win probability sits at 30%, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 44%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4% with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.2% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.1% with a 2% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.7% with a 1% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.4% with a 4% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 91.8% with a 2% edge. The recent form shows Real Sociedad coming off a draw, while Atletico Madrid arrive after a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Sociedad win
30.2%
Avg Implied 30.7% · @ 3.06
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.18
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
Dafabet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.59
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.76
Betfair
3.70
Marathonbet
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.64
Atletico Madrid win
43.6%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.18
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.23
Dafabet
2.21
Betano
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.60
2.00
1.40
1.33
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
3.25
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.27
1.80
1.40
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
1.46
2.25
1.50
2.00
1.40
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.12
1.25
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.75
2.67
1.33
1.50
2.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
1.50
1.80
1.20
1.50
1.88
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.20+3.0%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 4.31-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.67+1.1%
Under 2.5
42.2%
@ 2.20-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.4%
@ 2.64-0.0%
Under 3.5
64.6%
@ 1.45+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
61.1%
@ 1.56+1.5%
No
38.9%
@ 2.30-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
No
10Bet
2.38
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.60+5.4%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.34+3.8%
2-1
7.5%@ 9.90+2.9%
0-1
7.1%@ 8.86+2.0%
0-2
6.8%@ 11.14+2.8%
2-2
6.2%@ 11.00+2.1%
0-0
6.0%@ 12.97+2.6%
1-0
5.6%@ 10.79+1.4%
Real Sociedad goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
7.1%
6.8%
3.7%
1.6%
1
5.6%
12%
9.2%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.5%
7.5%
6.2%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.0%
3.4%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Sociedad goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Sociedad is 0.61 points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Sociedad is 0.08 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Sociedad is 0.45 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Sociedad is 2.1 percentage points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Sociedad
For 5.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.9
9.2
4.9
5.3
4.6
27.3
27.8
26.7
vs Stronger (8)
12.0
14.0
10.8
4.4
5.7
3.6
21.8
23.0
21.0
vs Similar (17)
9.4
10.1
8.6
5.8
5.6
6.0
27.0
26.7
27.4
vs Weaker (25)
9.8
10.7
8.9
4.5
5.0
4.1
29.5
30.1
28.8
% over line
53%
65%
42%
68%
78%
59%
79%
87%
71%
% under line
47%
35%
58%
32%
22%
41%
21%
13%
29%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.1
10.7
3.6
3.4
3.9
21.4
21.1
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.6
8.5
10.3
4.2
3.8
4.5
21.1
22.0
20.6
vs Weaker (32)
10.8
10.7
10.9
3.3
3.2
3.5
21.5
20.7
22.2
% over line
61%
55%
67%
50%
43%
56%
52%
50%
54%
% under line
39%
45%
33%
50%
57%
44%
48%
50%
46%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.61+1.6%
Under 9.5
41.6%
@ 2.12-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Sociedad or Draw
59.8%
Avg Implied 57.1% · @ 1.64
Edge
+2.7%
30%
26%
44%
covers Real Sociedad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid
74.1%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.2%
30%
26%
44%
covers Real Sociedad + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Atletico Madrid
66.2%
Avg Implied 69.1% · @ 1.36
Edge
-2.9%
30%
26%
44%
covers Draw + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
@ 1.28+4.5%
Under
22.9%
@ 3.40-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
@ 2.37+4.0%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.54-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Marathonbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.37
Under
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
@ 5.63+2.0%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.12-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Real Sociedad over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
@ 13.38-0.9%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
@ 1.18+1.5%
Under
19.7%
@ 4.36-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.30
1xBet
4.20
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5
Over
48.3%
@ 1.92-0.4%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.82+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.80
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
@ 3.90-1.6%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.22+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.07
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
@ 9.10-2.1%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Sociedad, so a minus line means Real Sociedad give that many goals of a start and Atletico Madrid receive them. At -1, Real Sociedad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Sociedad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Sociedad)
Real Sociedad -2
6.2%
@ 14.00-0.3%
Draw -2
10.2%
@ 8.50-0.4%
Atletico Madrid +2
83.6%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Real Sociedad)
Real Sociedad -1
16.4%
@ 6.20+1.9%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 4.69-1.8%
Atletico Madrid +1
66.2%
@ 1.36-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Handicap +1 (Real Sociedad)
Real Sociedad +1
59.8%
@ 1.65+5.3%
Draw +1
19.3%
@ 4.03-3.1%
Atletico Madrid -1
20.9%
@ 3.90-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Handicap +2 (Real Sociedad)
Real Sociedad +2
79.1%
@ 1.20+4.3%
Draw +2
12.4%
@ 6.19-2.1%
Atletico Madrid -2
8.6%
@ 8.32-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.55
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.88
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.83
1.83
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.89
0.50
0.60
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.6%
@ 1.32+2.2%
Under 0.5
26.4%
@ 3.29-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.44-0.5%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.52+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Under
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.83-3.1%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.11+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.8%
@ 2.06-2.2%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.69+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.07
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
@ 6.79-2.3%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.08+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 12.00-6.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.6%
@ 1.79-1.1%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.93+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Unibet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Under
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.1%
@ 5.05-2.3%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.14+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 10.75-5.5%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.27
0.73
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.73
1.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.69
1.25
0.62
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.12
0.50
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.33
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.61
1.30
0.60
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.2%
@ 1.18+0.9%
Under 0.5
19.8%
@ 4.53-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.1%
@ 1.87-0.9%
Under 1.5
50.9%
@ 1.87+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.6%
@ 3.75-4.4%
Under 2.5
79.4%
@ 1.25+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.84
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
@ 1.75-0.4%
Under
47.2%
@ 1.99+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.0%
@ 4.67-2.8%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.16+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
@ 10.00-5.6%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.2%
@ 1.54-2.2%
Under
41.8%
@ 2.35+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.34
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.4%
@ 3.64-5.1%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.24+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.6%
@ 8.80-3.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.1%
Under 5.5
90.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+0.9%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
+2.3%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.09
+3.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.14
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+2.3%
Away +2 handicap
83.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+0.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
+2.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
-2.0%
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+3.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+1.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+0.9%
Under 4.5
79.8%
1.15
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
-1.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.24
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-
+5.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+4.4%
Home +2 handicap
79.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+4.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+1.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
1.28
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+4.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
1.27
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
+0.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+2.2%
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
1.37
Unibet
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Sociedad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić25%
Barrenetxea25%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Y. Herrera50%
Zubeldia50%
Jon Aramburu50%
Sergio Gómez25%
Luka Sučić25%
Beñat Turrientes25%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Guedes33%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Sociedad's squad is €406m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€247m vs €653m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Sociedad's attack is €181m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€110m vs €290m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Sociedad's midfield is €97m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€58m vs €155m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Sociedad's defence is €128m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€79m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga