Real Sociedad are the clear favourites, with a 46% chance of victory, 27% for a draw and 28% for a Celta Vigo win. The model expects 2.8 goals on average, but the most probable total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. At home, Real Sociedad normally scores 2.25 goals and concedes 1.75 against teams of similar strength, while Celta Vigo, on the road, averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded versus comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%, edge 5%), Under 6.5 (97.2%, edge 1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.5%, edge 2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.8%, edge 5%), and Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%, edge 4%). The match opens with Real Sociedad on a winning streak after a 2-1 victory over Espanyol, while Celta Vigo returns from two consecutive defeats, having lost 0-2 to Athletic Club.
Results analysis
The unexpected 0-0 draw left Real Sociedad’s home advantage untested, as the match ended in a stalemate after both sides came off recent draws. The pre-match favourite, Home win at 47%, proved wrong, with the model’s call incorrect. Every suggested selection was settled, and each hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.1%. All eight selections were accurate, underscoring the model’s strength in predicting low-scoring outcomes even when the favourite faltered.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Sociedad win✗ Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.88
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.93
SBO
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.63
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Marathonbet
3.74
BetVictor
3.70
Celta Vigo win✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 4.09
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.34
Betfair
4.33
1xBet
4.26
Marathonbet
4.20
Bet365
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.14
1.50
1.31
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
3.25
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.40
2.25
1.75
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
1.43
2.25
1.50
1.83
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.40
1.47
1.60
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.57
1.50
1.67
1.18
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.27+4.6%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 3.68-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.87+3.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.95-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.96
Unibet
1.96
SBO
1.94
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 3.09+1.5%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.36-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Betano
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.74+3.9%
No
42.4%
@ 2.01-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Bet365
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.55+5.5%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.92+3.7%
1-0
8.4%@ 7.10+2.0%
2-0
7.9%@ 8.64+2.6%
0-0 ✓
6.9%@ 11.12+2.8%
1-2
6.8%@ 12.32+3.1%
0-1
5.7%@ 11.42+1.7%
2-2
5.7%@ 13.22+2.2%
Real Sociedad goals ↓
Celta Vigo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.7%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.4%
13%
6.8%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.3%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Sociedad goals (down), columns = Celta Vigo goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Sociedad is 0.21 points worse than Celta Vigo in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Sociedad is 0.16 goals better than Celta Vigo in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Sociedad is 0.34 goals worse than Celta Vigo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Sociedad is 0.8 percentage points better than Celta Vigo in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Sociedad
For 4.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
For 3.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 14.6 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.7
4.9
5.3
4.5
26.7
27.9
25.7
vs Stronger (9)
12.3
14.0
11.5
3.9
5.7
3.0
20.7
23.0
19.5
vs Similar (17)
9.5
9.6
9.3
5.6
5.6
5.7
26.4
26.8
26.1
vs Weaker (24)
9.8
10.7
8.9
4.7
5.0
4.4
29.5
30.1
28.8
% over line
54%
64%
46%
66%
77%
57%
75%
86%
65%
% under line
46%
36%
54%
34%
23%
43%
25%
14%
35%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.9
7.8
4.5
4.6
4.4
24.8
23.7
25.9
vs Stronger (10)
7.9
8.0
7.8
5.7
6.0
5.4
22.7
20.2
25.2
vs Similar (37)
7.6
7.8
7.3
4.1
4.2
4.1
24.9
24.6
25.2
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
-
12.0
4.7
-
4.7
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
24%
25%
24%
60%
62%
58%
67%
67%
68%
% under line
76%
75%
76%
40%
38%
42%
33%
33%
32%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
25.0
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.8%
@ 2.06-0.3%
Under 9.5
55.2%
@ 1.70+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.9%
@ 1.44+8.6%
Under 3.5
27.1%
@ 2.59-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.43
Superbet
1.33
Under
Superbet
2.85
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.37
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.7%
Under 21.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Sociedad or Draw✓ Hit
67.4%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.23
Edge
-9.2%
47%
26%
26%
covers Real Sociedad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.22
Real Sociedad or Celta Vigo✗ Miss
72.9%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.3%
47%
26%
26%
covers Real Sociedad + Celta Vigo
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Draw or Celta Vigo✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.92
Edge
+10.5%
47%
26%
26%
covers Draw + Celta Vigo
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
Unibet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.2%
@ 1.18-1.2%
Under
21.8%
@ 4.53+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Pinnacle
4.58
Unibet
4.50
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.0%
@ 1.86-5.3%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.88+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 3.73-5.3%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.24+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Unibet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Real Sociedad over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 8.59-4.1%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.1%
@ 1.45+9.6%
Under
25.9%
@ 2.62-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
Superbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 3.19+9.8%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.32-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.29
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 8.21+4.1%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.05-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
Celta Vigo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 20.00+0.0%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.01-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Sociedad, so a minus line means Real Sociedad give that many goals of a start and Celta Vigo receive them. At -1, Real Sociedad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Sociedad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad -2
8.0%
@ 6.78-5.2%
Draw -2
12.4%
@ 5.29-4.6%
Celta Vigo +2
79.6%
@ 1.29+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
7.20
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad -1
20.4%
@ 3.29-7.1%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 3.63-5.0%
Celta Vigo +1
59.7%
@ 1.90+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
10Bet
3.20
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
1.96
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Handicap +1 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad +1
67.4%
@ 1.23-6.7%
Draw +1
17.5%
@ 5.72+1.6%
Celta Vigo -1
15.0%
@ 9.13+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad +2
85.0%
@ 1.05-3.0%
Draw +2
9.7%
@ 11.50+1.7%
Celta Vigo -2
5.3%
@ 22.67+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.79
0.71
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.88
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.70
0.67
0.75
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.36+1.9%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.03-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 2.68+0.0%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.44-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Marathonbet
2.77
Superbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Pinnacle
2.74
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 6.83-1.3%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.09+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Under
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.6%
@ 1.78-3.7%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.96+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.93-4.3%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.14+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.88-4.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 2.46+4.3%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.50-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.49
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 8.61+0.6%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.04-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.40
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 24.00-2.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.36
0.79
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
1.75
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.71
1.25
0.62
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.87
0.83
0.92
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
82.0%
@ 1.22+5.3%
Under 0.5
18.0%
@ 4.01-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.0%
@ 2.05+1.2%
Under 1.5
53.0%
@ 1.73-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.6%
@ 4.38-1.8%
Under 2.5
80.4%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
William Hil
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
58.0%
@ 1.57-1.3%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.29+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.37
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.12
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 3.60-6.3%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.25+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 9.00-5.2%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.0%
@ 2.05+7.8%
Under
47.0%
@ 1.70-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 6.30+2.2%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.09-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.10
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 16.38-2.4%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
1.18
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.11
-
-
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.22
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.3%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Unibet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.25
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.45
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
1.44
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.43
Superbet
1.33
-
-
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.9%
1.27
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.28
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
71.7%
1.47
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
+1.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Sociedad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić25%
Barrenetxea25%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Y. Herrera50%
Zubeldia50%
Jon Aramburu50%
Sergio Gómez25%
Luka Sučić25%
Beñat Turrientes25%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Guedes33%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Celta Vigo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Alonso33%
I. Radu25%
Sergio Carreira25%
Javi Rueda25%
Yoel Lago25%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
I. Moriba0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Sociedad's squad is €84m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€247m vs €163m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Sociedad's attack is €53m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€110m vs €57m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Sociedad's midfield is €23m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€58m vs €35m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Sociedad's defence is €8m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€79m vs €71m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga