Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Real Madrid are tipped to win, with a 43% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 29% for a Real Sociedad victory. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Real Sociedad, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged zero goals scored and concede two per game. Real Madrid, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (93.6%), Over 2.5 cards (90.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (86.5%), Over 3.5 cards (78.6%), Over 23.5 fouls (75.7%), Over 1.5 (74.5%), Under 11.5 corners (74.0%) and Under 3.5 (73.6%). The match is set to be a high-intensity affair, with Real Madrid’s recent five-game winning streak and Real Sociedad’s return from a win suggesting a competitive contest.

Real Sociedad’s win over Real Madrid was the shock of the evening, snapping the visitors’ five-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was the model’s pick of an away win, assigned a 43% probability, but the result was a home victory, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score was 3-1, a home win that extended Real Sociedad’s recent form with a win. The model’s other selections all hit: over 19.5 fouls at 93.6%, over 2.5 cards at 90.5%, over 21.5 fouls at 86.5%, over 3.5 cards at 78.6%, over 23.5 fouls at 75.7%, over 1.5 goals at 74.5%, under 11.5 corners at 74.0%, while under 3.5 goals at 73.6% missed. The match delivered more goals than the model’s expected total of 2.6, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13.6% proving irrelevant.