Red Bull Salzburg’s recent four-game winning streak and a 4-1 triumph over Austria Vienna set the tone for a home-side advantage that the model flags as the most likely outcome, with a 56% chance of a home win, 24% for a draw and 20% for Rapid Vienna. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively match, yet the model’s most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Salzburg’s home form shows 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against weaker opposition, while Rapid Vienna’s away record boasts 1.0 goal scored and 0.0 conceded against stronger teams.
The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring halves: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7% with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.1% with a 5% edge, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5% with a 7% edge. Other picks include Under 7.5 goals (98.6% edge 2), Under 6.5 (96.2% edge 4), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2% edge 5), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.9% edge 8), Under 6.5 (96.2% edge 4), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (91.9% edge 7).
Results analysis
Red Bull Salzburg’s 5-1 triumph over Rapid Vienna continued a five-game winning streak, cementing the home side’s dominance on the pitch. The model had correctly picked a home win, assigning a 56% probability to that outcome. The final score matched the predicted 5-1 result, confirming the model’s accuracy. The model’s selections largely proved successful: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.2%, Under 6.5 at 96.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.1%. Only Home under 2.5 HT goals missed, falling short of the model’s 95.1% expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg win✓ Hit
55.9%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.79
Dafabet
1.78
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.05
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.24
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Rapid Vienna win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.94
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.13
Bet365
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.10
1.50
1.07
1.94
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.85
1.04
1.54
1.08
2.15
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.13
1.80
0.80
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.54
1.43
1.29
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.75
1.38
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
@ 1.11-1.3%
Under 1.5
17.6%
@ 5.74+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.47
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.42-5.7%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.68+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.4%
@ 2.07-7.7%
Under 3.5
62.6%
@ 1.70+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
@ 1.43-5.6%
No
40.9%
@ 2.62+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
No
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 8.03+5.4%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.09+4.3%
2-0
8.8%@ 10.78+4.6%
1-0
7.9%@ 10.64+3.7%
3-1
6.5%@ 11.33+2.5%
3-0
5.7%@ 15.33+2.8%
1-2
5.7%@ 12.17+2.0%
2-2
5.6%@ 10.67+1.3%
Red Bull Salzburg goals ↓
Rapid Vienna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.9%
11%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.7%
6.5%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.8%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Red Bull Salzburg goals (down), columns = Rapid Vienna goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Red Bull Salzburg is 0.20 points better than Rapid Vienna in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg is 0.20 goals worse than Rapid Vienna in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Red Bull Salzburg is 0.80 goals better than Rapid Vienna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Red Bull Salzburg is 9.4 percentage points better than Rapid Vienna in terms of average possession (66% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg
For 8.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 6.7 · Against 10.0 · Total 16.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rapid Vienna
For 6.4 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Red Bull Salzburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.9
8.8
3.1
3.6
2.7
20.1
19.1
21.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (9)
8.2
11.3
6.7
3.4
3.0
3.7
21.6
20.3
22.2
vs Weaker (40)
9.6
9.6
9.6
3.0
3.6
2.4
19.6
18.7
20.8
% over line
43%
52%
33%
36%
44%
28%
34%
30%
38%
% under line
57%
48%
67%
64%
56%
72%
66%
70%
62%
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.3
3.8
4.1
3.5
24.2
24.4
24.1
vs Stronger (4)
8.2
8.0
8.5
5.2
3.5
7.0
25.5
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (23)
9.3
9.2
9.3
4.1
4.6
3.4
25.5
26.1
24.8
vs Weaker (23)
9.8
10.3
9.4
3.3
3.6
3.1
22.5
22.9
22.2
% over line
47%
52%
41%
56%
54%
58%
69%
65%
73%
% under line
53%
48%
59%
44%
46%
42%
31%
35%
27%
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lask Linz
10.3
Austria Vienna
10.1
WSG Wattens
10.0
Sturm Graz
10.0
TSV Hartberg
9.9
Austria Lustenau
9.8
Wolfsberger AC
9.7
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Red Bull Salzburg
9.3
Grazer AK
9.1
Ried
8.9
SCR Altach
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.8
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
Ried
4.6
Grazer AK
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.5
Austria Vienna
4.4
WSG Wattens
4.3
Rapid Vienna
4.2
Red Bull Salzburg
3.9
Lask Linz
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
24.0
Sturm Graz
23.8
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
SCR Altach
23.0
Austria Vienna
22.9
Wolfsberger AC
22.6
WSG Wattens
22.5
Ried
22.4
TSV Hartberg
21.7
Lask Linz
21.0
Red Bull Salzburg
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.74+1.4%
Under 9.5
45.1%
@ 2.00-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
@ 1.75-1.8%
Under 3.5
49.5%
@ 1.92+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
Under
Superbet
1.92
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
35.7%
Under 21.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Red Bull Salzburg or Draw✓ Hit
79.6%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
+4.1%
56%
24%
20%
covers Red Bull Salzburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Red Bull Salzburg or Rapid Vienna✓ Hit
76.3%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
-1.1%
56%
24%
20%
covers Red Bull Salzburg + Rapid Vienna
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Draw or Rapid Vienna✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.99
Edge
-3.0%
56%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Rapid Vienna
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.0%
@ 1.09+0.6%
Under
14.0%
@ 6.37-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.5%
@ 1.53-2.6%
Under
41.5%
@ 2.40+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
BetVictor
2.38
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.4%
@ 2.66-3.5%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.43+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Unibet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Under
Marathonbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.7%
@ 5.22-4.1%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.13+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.6%
@ 1.27-5.2%
Under
32.4%
@ 3.41+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.72
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
@ 2.36-8.5%
Under
68.9%
@ 1.54+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 5.33-6.9%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.12+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Rapid Vienna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 13.25-4.4%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Red Bull Salzburg, so a minus line means Red Bull Salzburg give that many goals of a start and Rapid Vienna receive them. At -1, Red Bull Salzburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Red Bull Salzburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Red Bull Salzburg)Actual: Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg -2
16.3%
@ 5.29-0.6%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 5.04-0.4%
Rapid Vienna +2
66.3%
@ 1.37+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Red Bull Salzburg)Actual: Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg -1
33.7%
@ 2.81+2.0%
Draw -1
22.2%
@ 3.79-1.2%
Rapid Vienna +1
44.1%
@ 1.98-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (Red Bull Salzburg)Actual: Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg +1
79.6%
@ 1.24+6.9%
Draw +1
12.3%
@ 5.76-3.3%
Rapid Vienna -1
8.1%
@ 7.71-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (Red Bull Salzburg)Actual: Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg +2
91.9%
@ 1.06+4.2%
Draw +2
5.7%
@ 12.00-2.1%
Rapid Vienna -2
2.4%
@ 20.50-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Red Bull Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.79
0.57
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.65
0.77
0.62
0.92
0.69
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.93
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.1%
@ 1.22-3.8%
Under 0.5
27.9%
@ 3.83+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.0%
@ 2.06-9.1%
Under 1.5
64.0%
@ 1.69+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 4.42-6.7%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.17+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
William Hil
4.40
1xBet
4.35
Betano
4.35
Under
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.7%
@ 1.58-5.3%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.27+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.6%
@ 3.65-6.7%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.24+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Under
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
4.9%
@ 9.30-5.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.20
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 2.06-6.0%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.69+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Under
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 6.30-6.8%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.08+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 19.00-3.8%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Red Bull Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.71
0.50
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (26)
1.00
0.38
0.77
0.46
1.23
0.31
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.87
0.33
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.92
0.71
0.57
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.50
1.17
0.17
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.12-3.2%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 5.42+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.35
Superbet
5.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.7%
@ 1.65-9.7%
Under 1.5
53.3%
@ 2.13+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 2.94-12.4%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.35+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.89
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.9%
@ 1.36-5.1%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.89+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Under
10Bet
2.95
Betano
2.92
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
25.2%
@ 2.70-9.0%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.40+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.75
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 6.42-8.7%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.08+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.8%
@ 1.73-9.8%
Under
56.2%
@ 2.00+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.7%
@ 4.57-7.6%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.16+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 12.25-5.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.3%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
86.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
+12.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
79.9%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.3%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
+9.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.22
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.4%
1.30
Superbet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Red Bull Salzburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Konaté75%
H. Tabaković50%
Y. Vertessen40%
Frans Krätzig33%
Edmund Baidoo33%
Sota Kitano25%
N. Veratschnig20%
B. Mazurek20%
D. Schmid0%
Abubakr Barry0%
Kévin Boma0%
Damir Redzic0%
Tim Drexler0%
L. Morgalla0%
A. Camara0%
Valentin Zabransky0%
Christian Zawieschitzky0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Schmid25%
A. Camara25%
H. Tabaković0%
Y. Vertessen0%
Abubakr Barry0%
Kévin Boma0%
Frans Krätzig0%
N. Veratschnig0%
Damir Redzic0%
Sota Kitano0%
Tim Drexler0%
L. Morgalla0%
K. Konaté0%
B. Mazurek0%
Valentin Zabransky0%
Christian Zawieschitzky0%
Edmund Baidoo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abubakr Barry40%
Frans Krätzig33%
D. Schmid25%
Kévin Boma25%
Sota Kitano25%
A. Camara25%
Y. Vertessen20%
N. Veratschnig20%
B. Mazurek20%
H. Tabaković0%
Damir Redzic0%
Tim Drexler0%
L. Morgalla0%
K. Konaté0%
Valentin Zabransky0%
Christian Zawieschitzky0%
Edmund Baidoo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
K. Konaté100%
H. Tabaković50%
A. Camara50%
Kévin Boma25%
Sota Kitano25%
Y. Vertessen20%
N. Veratschnig20%
D. Schmid0%
Abubakr Barry0%
Frans Krätzig0%
Damir Redzic0%
Tim Drexler0%
L. Morgalla0%
B. Mazurek0%
Valentin Zabransky0%
Christian Zawieschitzky0%
Edmund Baidoo0%
Rapid Vienna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Petter Nosakhare Dahl33%
Ercan Kara29%
Nenad Cvetković25%
Yusuf Demir25%
Moulaye Haïdara25%
M. Tilio22%
L. Schaub20%
J. Horn14%
Bendegúz Bolla12%
S. Raux-Yao11%
M. Seidl11%
Tonni Adamsen11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
Jonas Auer0%
Niklas Hedl0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Jakob Schöller0%
Romeo Amane0%
Eaden Roka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bendegúz Bolla38%
Romeo Amane33%
Jakob Schöller25%
L. Schaub20%
Nenad Cvetković12%
M. Seidl11%
Nicolas Bajlicz11%
Petter Nosakhare Dahl11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
J. Horn0%
Jonas Auer0%
M. Tilio0%
Ercan Kara0%
S. Raux-Yao0%
Yusuf Demir0%
Niklas Hedl0%
Tonni Adamsen0%
Moulaye Haïdara0%
Eaden Roka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Seidl33%
Tonni Adamsen22%
Nicolas Bajlicz22%
Romeo Amane17%
J. Horn14%
Bendegúz Bolla12%
Yusuf Demir12%
Moulaye Haïdara12%
M. Tilio11%
Niklas Hedl11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
L. Schaub0%
Nenad Cvetković0%
Jonas Auer0%
Ercan Kara0%
S. Raux-Yao0%
Jakob Schöller0%
Petter Nosakhare Dahl0%
Eaden Roka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yusuf Demir62%
Ercan Kara57%
Tonni Adamsen22%
Petter Nosakhare Dahl22%
L. Schaub20%
Moulaye Haïdara12%
M. Tilio11%
M. Seidl11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
J. Horn0%
Bendegúz Bolla0%
Nenad Cvetković0%
Jonas Auer0%
S. Raux-Yao0%
Niklas Hedl0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Jakob Schöller0%
Romeo Amane0%
Eaden Roka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Red Bull Salzburg's squad is €59m more valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€105m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Red Bull Salzburg's attack is €31m more valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€47m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Red Bull Salzburg's midfield is €19m more valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€29m vs €10m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Red Bull Salzburg's defence is €10m more valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€29m vs €19m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna