Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Result & Analysis

Red Bull Salzburg are favoured to win this encounter, with a 50 % chance of triumph, a 28 % chance of a draw and a 22 % chance of an away win. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 27 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4 % chance. Salzburg, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Hartberg, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 0.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls (82.7 %), Under 5.5 cards (77.6 %), Over 1.5 (71.9 %) and Under 23.5 fouls (70.1 %). The remaining selections - Under 2.5 cards, Under 3.5, Under 11.5 corners, and Over 2.5 cards - are less likely, with probabilities of 77.0 %, 76.4 %, 74.2 % and 77.0 % respectively. The model’s forecast reflects Salzburg’s strong home form, highlighted by a recent two-game winning streak, whereas Hartberg’s recent win suggests they may challenge the favourite.

The pre-match favourite, a home win for Red Bull Salzburg at 50 %, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-3 in favour of TSV Hartberg, ending Hartberg’s win streak. Salzburg’s recent form, a two-game winning run, had suggested a positive trajectory, yet the away side, coming off a win, turned the tide. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections performed as follows: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 82.7 %; Under 5.5 cards hit at 77.6 %; Over 2.5 cards missed at 77.0 %; Under 3.5 missed at 76.4 %; Under 11.5 corners missed at 74.2 %; Over 1.5 hit at 71.9 %; Under 23.5 fouls hit at 70.1 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.