Red Bull Salzburg host TSV Hartberg in the Austria: Bundesliga, looking to bounce back from a recent draw against Wolfsberger AC. Despite this, they've performed well at home against weaker opponents, scoring an average of 1.77 goals and conceding 1.46. TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have struggled on the road against stronger opponents, scoring 1.27 goals and conceding 0.82.
The model predicts a home win with a 48% probability, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 25%. The most likely match result is a home win, with an expected total of 2.6 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, but the model's selection is a home win.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 75.4% probability and Under 3.5 with a 72.6% probability, providing a 14% edge. The model's selection is Over 1.5. Home win percentage is 48%, draw percentage is 28%, and away win percentage is 25%.
Results analysis
Red Bull Salzburg secured a 1-0 win over TSV Hartberg, extending their undefeated run. The model's call, a home win, was correct. The pre-match favourite, the home win, had a 48% probability of occurring.
The model's selection, the home win, came to fruition. The suggested picks, however, did not fare as well. The Over 1.5 selection, with a 75.4% probability, missed its mark. In contrast, the Under 3.5 selection, with a 72.6% probability, hit its target.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg winâ Hit
47.8%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Dafabet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Drawâ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 17.6% · @ 5.27
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.88
Dafabet
5.60
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
TSV Hartberg winâ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 10.7% · @ 8.70
Edge
+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
9.50
Pinnacle
9.34
10Bet
9.00
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.30
1.64
1.36
1.75
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.88
1.17
1.69
1.38
2.09
0.91
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.20
1.53
1.27
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.53
1.14
2.43
1.12
0.75
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
1.25
0.75
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.4%
@ 1.14-6.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
@ 5.12+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Pinnacle
5.22
1xBet
5.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.49-13.1%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 2.47+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.4%
@ 2.25-14.2%
Under 3.5
72.6%
@ 1.60+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.4%
@ 1.80+1.9%
No
46.6%
@ 1.91-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
No
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 9.54+8.4%
1-0 â
10.0%@ 7.93+4.3%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.93+3.7%
2-0
8.8%@ 6.79+2.1%
0-0
8.3%@ 16.57+5.6%
1-2
6.4%@ 23.00+4.5%
0-1
6.4%@ 22.31+4.4%
2-2
5.1%@ 16.97+2.4%
Red Bull Salzburg goals ↓
TSV Hartberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.4%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10.0%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.4%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.6%
4.9%
2.7%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Red Bull Salzburg goals (down), columns = TSV Hartberg goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
SCR Altach
1.31
TSV Hartberg
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Austria Lustenau
1.16
Grazer AK
1.16
Red Bull Salzburg is 0.19 points better than TSV Hartberg in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.31).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
Austria Lustenau
1.15
SCR Altach
1.12
Red Bull Salzburg is 0.50 goals better than TSV Hartberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.25).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
Austria Vienna
1.56
Austria Lustenau
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.62
Red Bull Salzburg is 0.03 goals worse than TSV Hartberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.25).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
Red Bull Salzburg is 20.7 percentage points better than TSV Hartberg in terms of average possession (60% vs 39%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg
For 4.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
TSV Hartberg
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Red Bull Salzburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
8.9
3.4
4.0
2.8
20.4
19.8
21.0
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (11)
7.8
9.5
6.9
4.3
5.0
3.9
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Weaker (38)
9.3
8.9
9.8
3.1
3.8
2.5
19.5
18.9
20.1
% over line
43%
50%
36%
40%
46%
35%
36%
32%
41%
% under line
57%
50%
64%
60%
54%
65%
64%
68%
59%
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.0
10.9
3.9
4.9
3.2
22.0
22.6
21.5
vs Stronger (19)
10.1
7.6
12.4
4.6
6.0
3.4
21.8
21.6
22.0
vs Similar (29)
9.1
8.4
9.7
3.7
4.0
3.5
22.2
23.3
21.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
29%
61%
62%
86%
45%
57%
71%
43%
% under line
55%
71%
39%
38%
14%
55%
43%
29%
57%
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.4
Lask Linz
10.3
Rapid Vienna
9.9
WSG Wattens
9.8
Sturm Graz
9.6
Wolfsberger AC
9.5
TSV Hartberg
9.4
Austria Lustenau
9.3
Red Bull Salzburg
9.1
Grazer AK
8.9
Ried
8.5
SCR Altach
8.5
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.4
Austria Lustenau
5.0
Sturm Graz
4.9
TSV Hartberg
4.8
Grazer AK
4.8
Ried
4.7
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
WSG Wattens
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.5
Rapid Vienna
4.3
Lask Linz
3.9
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
23.9
SCR Altach
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.6
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Wolfsberger AC
22.8
Austria Vienna
22.6
Ried
22.6
WSG Wattens
22.4
TSV Hartberg
22.1
Lask Linz
20.6
Red Bull Salzburg
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.75+0.0%
Under 9.5
47.0%
@ 1.97-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Unibet
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.3%
Under 3.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
43.4%
Under 21.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Red Bull Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
0.86
0.64
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.71
0.85
0.69
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.40
0.71
0.86
0.62
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.36
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Red Bull Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.79
0.71
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.60
vs Weaker (24)
0.92
0.46
0.85
0.69
1.00
0.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.13
0.43
1.57
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.43
0.62
0.25
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-6.4%
â Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.6%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
+14.2%
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
1.36
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+3.3%
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 13. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (36)
€192m
SG (32)
€59m
LL (26)
€48m
RV (37)
€46m
WA (33)
€35m
AV (35)
€30m
TH (30)
€14m
RIE (27)
€12m
SA (30)
€12m
GA (27)
€10m
AL (22)
€5m
Red Bull Salzburg's squad is €178m more valuable than TSV Hartberg's (€192m vs €14m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€93m
SG (10)
€20m
LL (8)
€17m
RV (13)
€17m
WA (11)
€14m
AV (13)
€13m
RIE (7)
€6m
GA (8)
€4m
TH (8)
€4m
SA (12)
€4m
AL (10)
€2m
Red Bull Salzburg's attack is €89m more valuable than TSV Hartberg's (€93m vs €4m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (9)
€40m
SG (5)
€17m
RV (7)
€10m
LL (8)
€8m
AV (6)
€7m
RIE (10)
€4m
WA (7)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
SA (4)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Red Bull Salzburg's midfield is €37m more valuable than TSV Hartberg's (€40m vs €3m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (16)
€59m
LL (10)
€22m
SG (17)
€22m
RV (17)
€19m
WA (15)
€18m
AV (16)
€10m
TH (15)
€7m
SA (14)
€6m
GA (12)
€4m
AL (9)
€2m
RIE (10)
€2m
Red Bull Salzburg's defence is €51m more valuable than TSV Hartberg's (€59m vs €7m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
Austria Lustenau
Wolfsberger AC
Ried
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna
Grazer AK
WSG Wattens