This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.93
1.00
1.60
1.00
2.27
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
2.18
0.82
1.73
1.09
2.64
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.25
1.50
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.4%
@ 1.78+8.1%
Under 2.5
38.6%
@ 2.03-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
Regensburg goals ↓
Ingolstadt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.5%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.9%
10%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.6%
7.0%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Regensburg goals (down), columns = Ingolstadt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Regensburg is 0.56 points better than Ingolstadt in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Regensburg is 0.59 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Regensburg is 0.41 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
R
Regensburg
For 5.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
R
Regensburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.6
4.2
4.0
4.4
27.6
27.6
27.7
vs Stronger (37)
9.1
8.8
9.4
4.1
3.8
4.5
27.6
27.8
27.4
vs Similar (13)
9.5
9.0
10.0
4.5
4.8
4.3
27.5
26.7
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
36%
52%
66%
60%
72%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
56%
64%
48%
34%
40%
28%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.8
4.1
4.2
4.0
26.8
28.6
25.0
vs Stronger (34)
9.8
9.2
10.4
4.2
4.5
3.9
26.0
27.4
24.6
vs Similar (16)
8.6
8.9
8.4
3.9
3.6
4.1
28.6
31.4
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
40%
52%
56%
60%
52%
78%
92%
64%
% under line
54%
60%
48%
44%
40%
48%
22%
8%
36%
This opponent (Regensburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.3
1. FC Heidenheim
10.9
Hannover 96
10.7
SV Sandhausen
10.3
1. FC Nürnberg
10.3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.1
Holstein Kiel
10.0
FC Schalke 04
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
Karlsruher SC
9.9
Werder Bremen
9.7
SV Darmstadt 98
9.6
Dynamo Dresden
9.6
Ingolstadt
9.4
Hansa Rostock
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Regensburg
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Darmstadt 98
4.5
Hansa Rostock
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Hamburger SV
4.3
Regensburg
4.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.2
Werder Bremen
4.2
1. FC Nürnberg
4.2
Erzgebirge Aue
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.0
Karlsruher SC
4.0
Hannover 96
3.9
FC St. Pauli
3.9
FC Schalke 04
3.9
Holstein Kiel
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
27.6
Ingolstadt
26.8
SV Darmstadt 98
25.3
FC St. Pauli
24.4
Erzgebirge Aue
24.4
Werder Bremen
24.1
Hansa Rostock
24.1
SV Sandhausen
24.0
Karlsruher SC
23.9
Hamburger SV
23.9
Hannover 96
23.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.5
FC Schalke 04
23.4
1. FC Nürnberg
23.2
Dynamo Dresden
22.9
SC Paderborn 07
22.9
Holstein Kiel
21.8
1. FC Heidenheim
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.7%
Under 9.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.5%
Under 3.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.9%
Under 21.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
R
Regensburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (22)
0.77
0.55
0.73
0.55
0.82
0.55
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.60
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
1.05
0.45
0.82
0.27
1.27
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Regensburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
R
Regensburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
1.20
1.00
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (22)
0.64
0.95
1.09
0.91
0.18
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.62
1.50
1.25
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.40
0.93
0.67
1.27
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
1.14
0.36
0.91
0.82
1.36
vs Similar (8)
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Regensburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →