This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.33
1.47
1.33
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.57
1.12
1.38
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.14
1.83
1.33
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.3%
Under 1.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.9%
@ 2.51-7.7%
Under 2.5
70.1%
@ 1.51+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.7%
Under 3.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.1%
No
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.2%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
13.3%
0-1
12.3%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
0-2 ✓
6.3%
1-2
6.2%
Reggiana goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
6.3%
1.9%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
7.2%
6.7%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Reggiana goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Reggiana is 0.03 points better than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Reggiana is 0.05 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Reggiana is 0.05 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Reggiana is 4.7 percentage points better than Cittadella in terms of average possession (52% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Reggiana
For 4.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 14.9 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 5.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 14.4 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reggiana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
5.4
6.0
4.8
30.0
29.0
31.0
vs Stronger (18)
10.1
9.1
10.6
5.3
6.3
4.7
29.0
27.1
30.2
vs Similar (29)
9.3
10.0
8.5
5.4
5.7
5.0
30.8
30.0
31.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
11.0
9.0
5.7
7.0
3.0
28.3
27.5
30.0
% over line
50%
54%
46%
76%
83%
69%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
24%
17%
31%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.1
9.9
3.2
3.2
3.1
30.9
30.8
30.9
vs Stronger (22)
9.8
9.0
10.8
3.0
2.8
3.2
29.5
29.5
29.5
vs Similar (26)
8.3
7.0
9.5
3.1
3.2
2.9
32.1
31.4
32.8
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
6.5
8.0
5.0
31.0
37.0
25.0
% over line
42%
38%
47%
50%
54%
46%
97%
100%
93%
% under line
58%
62%
53%
50%
46%
54%
3%
0%
7%
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Parma
10.6
Venezia
10.4
Ternana
10.3
Palermo
10.1
Bari
10.0
Brescia
9.9
Cremonese
9.9
Modena
9.8
Spezia
9.8
Lecco
9.7
Pisa
9.7
Cosenza
9.6
Reggiana
9.6
Ascoli
9.4
Como
9.3
FeralpiSalo
9.2
Cittadella
9.0
Catanzaro
9.0
Sampdoria
8.7
Sudtirol
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.5
Pisa
6.3
Cittadella
5.8
Modena
5.8
Spezia
5.8
Ascoli
5.7
Sampdoria
5.6
Sudtirol
5.5
Lecco
5.5
Catanzaro
5.5
Bari
5.5
Parma
5.4
Reggiana
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
Palermo
5.2
FeralpiSalo
5.2
Como
5.1
Brescia
5.1
Venezia
5.0
Ternana
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ascoli
32.2
Cittadella
32.1
Reggiana
30.0
Sampdoria
30.0
Sudtirol
29.9
Palermo
29.9
Como
29.6
Bari
29.5
Spezia
29.4
Catanzaro
29.2
Pisa
29.1
Modena
28.7
Brescia
28.0
Cosenza
27.9
Lecco
27.8
Cremonese
27.6
Ternana
27.5
Parma
27.2
FeralpiSalo
27.0
Venezia
25.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.2%
Under 3.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.9%
Under 21.5
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Reggiana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.55
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.19
0.62
0.12
0.62
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.62
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.50
1.33
0.50
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Reggiana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Reggiana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.45
0.40
0.40
0.83
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.62
0.75
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.64
0.50
0.83
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Reggiana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
70.1%
1.51
-
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Reggiana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Vido33%
Natan Girma19%
Cedric Gondo16%
Janis Antiste14%
Manolo Portanova14%
Eric Lanini12%
Edoardo Pieragnolo12%
Stefano Pettinari11%
Alessandro Bianco6%
Luca Cigarini5%
Paolo Rozzio4%
Elvis Kabashi4%
Filippo Melegoni4%
Riccardo Fiamozzi3%
Alessandro Marcandalli3%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Filippo Romagna0%
Filippo Nardi0%
Mario Sampirisi0%
Marko Pajač0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Przemysław Szymiński0%
Álex Blanco0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Lorenzo Libutti0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca0%
Antonio Vergara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Cigarini43%
Alessandro Bianco43%
Elvis Kabashi31%
Natan Girma31%
Paolo Rozzio25%
Edoardo Pieragnolo24%
Manolo Portanova22%
Domen Črnigoj19%
Cedric Gondo16%
Filippo Romagna15%
Przemysław Szymiński14%
Alessandro Marcandalli14%
Antonio Vergara14%
Mario Sampirisi12%
Filippo Melegoni11%
Lorenzo Libutti11%
Filippo Nardi8%
Janis Antiste7%
Riccardo Fiamozzi7%
Francesco Bardi7%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca4%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Stefano Pettinari0%
Marko Pajač0%
Luca Vido0%
Eric Lanini0%
Álex Blanco0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Riccardo Fiamozzi10%
Edoardo Pieragnolo9%
Manolo Portanova8%
Filippo Romagna8%
Mario Sampirisi8%
Elvis Kabashi8%
Domen Črnigoj6%
Stefano Pettinari5%
Luca Cigarini5%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca4%
Natan Girma4%
Filippo Melegoni4%
Janis Antiste4%
Alessandro Marcandalli3%
Alessandro Bianco3%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Filippo Nardi0%
Marko Pajač0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Luca Vido0%
Przemysław Szymiński0%
Eric Lanini0%
Álex Blanco0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Lorenzo Libutti0%
Cedric Gondo0%
Paolo Rozzio0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Antonio Vergara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cedric Gondo13%
Manolo Portanova8%
Elvis Kabashi8%
Janis Antiste7%
Luca Cigarini5%
Paolo Rozzio4%
Natan Girma4%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Filippo Romagna0%
Filippo Nardi0%
Mario Sampirisi0%
Stefano Pettinari0%
Marko Pajač0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Luca Vido0%
Filippo Melegoni0%
Przemysław Szymiński0%
Riccardo Fiamozzi0%
Eric Lanini0%
Álex Blanco0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Lorenzo Libutti0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Edoardo Pieragnolo0%
Antonio Vergara0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Filippo Pittarello14%
Alessio Vita11%
Stefano Negro10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Tommy Maistrello9%
Enrico Baldini9%
Francesco Amatucci7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Simone Branca6%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Nicola Pavan3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Branca47%
Federico Giraudo37%
Stefano Negro35%
Alessandro Salvi34%
Edoardo Sottini29%
Enrico Baldini27%
Lorenzo Carissoni27%
Matteo Angeli25%
Francesco Amatucci18%
Andrea Tessiore17%
Giuseppe Carriero13%
Valerio Mastrantonio12%
Filippo Pittarello11%
Alessio Rizza11%
Domenico Frare10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Nicola Pavan10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Alessio Vita9%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Luca Maniero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Vita11%
Federico Giraudo11%
Alessandro Salvi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Lorenzo Carissoni9%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Filippo Pittarello9%
Simone Branca6%
Stefano Negro5%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Tommy Maistrello3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Pittarello23%
Luca Pandolfi15%
Stefano Negro10%
Alessio Vita9%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Andrea Magrassi3%
Claudio Cassano3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Pisa
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco