The model predicts an away win for JFK Ventspils, with a 51% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a Rēzekne FA win. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, and the most probable total is two goals, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% chance. Rēzekne FA, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. JFK Ventspils, on the road against a weaker side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals with an 80.2% probability. The recent form shows Rēzekne FA struggling after five straight defeats, while JFK Ventspils comes off a draw. These figures suggest a tight match, but the odds favour the visitors.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for JFK Ventspils, fell short as the match ended in a 2-2 draw, leaving the model’s call wrong. The upset came after Rēzekne FA’s five-game losing streak, while JFK Ventspils had only one defeat in their last five. The model had given the away side a 51% chance of victory, yet the result was a draw, a 26% probability that had been assigned. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 80.2% probability. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely 1-2 outcome, but the match itself proved a surprise, with both teams scoring twice.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils win✗ Miss
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rēzekne FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
3.13
0.73
2.40
0.47
3.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.83
0.67
1.33
0.67
4.33
vs Similar (14)
0.50
3.36
0.86
2.57
0.14
4.14
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
3.25
0.50
5.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
1.15
0.69
1.08
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.06
0.56
1.11
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.60
Clean sheet %
35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
6.4%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
5.8%
2-2 ✓
5.6%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
8.3%
8.4%
5.0%
2.2%
1
5.1%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.6%
6.3%
5.6%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.4%
2.4%
2.2%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Rēzekne FA is 0.62 points worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (0.54 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Rēzekne FA is 0.54 goals worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (0.69 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Rēzekne FA is 1.81 goals worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (3.23 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.50
0.40
1.27
0.20
1.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.17
2.33
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.50
0.57
1.43
0.14
1.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.54
0.38
0.54
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.47
0.33
0.56
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
58% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.63
0.33
1.13
0.27
2.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.17
0.33
0.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.14
1.86
0.29
1.14
0.00
2.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
2.25
0.50
3.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.62
0.31
0.54
0.46
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.22
0.56
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
54% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Super Nova
Rīgas FS II
JDFS Alberts
Riga FC II
Skanste
Valmiera II
Mārupe
Leevon / PPK
Progress / AFA Olaine
Ogre United
Tukums II
Smiltene