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Rēzekne FA vs Progress / AFA Olaine Result & Analysis

Date: 27/05/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 2-0
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Vs
30%
24%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rēzekne FA win✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine win✗ Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-813L04L22D01L05L05L01L18L13L02LH·RIG30/10A·VAL05/11H·RĪG13/11H·JFK08/04H·RIG16/04A·GRO22/04H·VAL29/04A·RĪG05/05H·JDF14/05H·SKA20/05
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.831.382.500.643.21
vs Stronger (10)0.702.801.001.670.254.50
vs Similar (16)1.382.691.752.881.002.50
vs Weaker (4)0.503.501.003.500.003.50
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-706L02L30W04L21W40W02L72W00D11DA·GRO29/10H·SAL05/11A·DIN13/11A·SKA08/04A·JFK15/04H·SMI23/04H·SAL29/04H·TUK06/05A·DIN13/05H·BEI21/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.672.571.812.751.502.36
vs Stronger (4)1.503.002.002.501.003.50
vs Similar (20)1.502.201.402.601.601.80
vs Weaker (6)2.333.502.753.251.504.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5.6%
0-1
5.6%
0-0
4.5%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
Progress / AFA Olaine goals →
01234
04.5%5.6%6.1%3.8%1.8%
14.2%11%9.1%5.6%2.6%
23.9%7.2%6.7%4.2%2.0%
31.9%3.6%3.3%2.1%1.0%
40.7%1.3%1.2%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = Progress / AFA Olaine goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Rēzekne FA is 0.48 points worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Rēzekne FA is 0.78 goals worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Rēzekne FA is 0.77 goals worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals conceded per game (3.12 vs 2.35).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L04L21W01L02L03L01L14L01L01LH·RIG30/10A·VAL05/11H·RĪG13/11H·JFK08/04H·RIG16/04A·GRO22/04H·VAL29/04A·RĪG05/05H·JDF14/05H·SKA20/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.230.751.000.361.50
vs Stronger (10)0.401.500.500.830.252.50
vs Similar (16)0.811.061.121.120.501.00
vs Weaker (4)0.001.250.001.000.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L01L02L11D20W01L20W00D01LH·FS 23/10A·GRO29/10H·SAL05/11A·SKA08/04A·JFK15/04H·SMI23/04H·SAL29/04H·TUK06/05A·DIN13/05H·BEI21/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.370.441.500.501.21
vs Stronger (5)0.401.600.001.500.671.67
vs Similar (19)0.261.210.301.400.221.00
vs Weaker (6)1.171.671.001.751.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D01L00D03L02L00D04L12L01LH·RIG30/10A·VAL05/11H·RĪG13/11H·JFK08/04H·RIG16/04A·GRO22/04H·VAL29/04A·RĪG05/05H·JDF14/05H·SKA20/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.600.621.500.291.71
vs Stronger (10)0.301.300.500.830.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.561.620.621.750.501.50
vs Weaker (4)0.502.251.002.500.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L04L01L02L10W20W01L52W00D10WH·FS 23/10A·GRO29/10H·SAL05/11A·SKA08/04A·JFK15/04H·SMI23/04H·SAL29/04H·TUK06/05A·DIN13/05H·BEI21/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.271.381.250.861.29
vs Stronger (5)1.001.202.001.000.331.33
vs Similar (19)1.161.111.101.201.221.00
vs Weaker (6)1.171.831.751.500.002.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
RF wins
1
Draws
1
P/A wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Rēzekne FA vs Progress / AFA Olaine · H/A from RF
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22HRF Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-4
18/06/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RF1-1

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/23HRF Vs Skanste0-2
14/05/23HRF Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
05/05/23ARīgas FS II Vs RF8-1
29/04/23HRF Vs Valmiera II0-1
22/04/23AGrobiņa Vs RF5-0
16/04/23HRF Vs Riga FC II0-5
08/04/23HRF Vs JFK Ventspils0-1
13/11/22HRF Vs Rīgas FS II2-2
05/11/22AValmiera II Vs RF4-0
30/10/22HRF Vs Riga FC II1-3

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23HP/A Vs Beitar1-1
13/05/23ADinamo Rīga Vs P/A0-0
06/05/23HP/A Vs Tukums II7-2
29/04/23HP/A Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-2
23/04/23HP/A Vs Smiltene4-0
15/04/23AJFK Ventspils Vs P/A1-2
08/04/23ASkanste Vs P/A4-0
13/11/22ADinamo Rīga Vs P/A0-3
05/11/22HP/A Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-2
29/10/22AGrobiņa Vs P/A6-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.64
HomeLLLLL0.89
AwayLLLLL0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%28%7%
AVG goals3.943.834.07
Over 1.5 %85%83%87%
Over 2.5 %67%72%60%
Over 3.5 %64%67%60%
Scored1.061.390.67
Conceded2.882.443.40
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet9%17%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD1.09
HomeLWLWD1.06
AwayLWLWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%31%
AVG goals4.064.473.62
Over 1.5 %94%100%88%
Over 2.5 %70%65%75%
Over 3.5 %48%53%44%
Scored1.581.761.38
Conceded2.482.712.25
BTTS55%59%50%
Clean Sheet15%12%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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