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Rēzekne FA vs Valmiera II Result & Analysis

Date: 26/04/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Vs
22%
22%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rēzekne FA win✓ Hit
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II win✗ Miss
56.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-911D09L00D12L03L07L21W05L22D06LA·JDF17/09A·SKA24/09A·PRO30/09H·SMI07/10A·SAL22/10H·TUK29/10H·BEI12/11A·SUP06/04H·JFK15/04A·RIG20/04
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
3.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.633.230.802.330.474.13
vs Stronger (13)0.772.770.861.430.674.33
vs Similar (13)0.463.690.832.500.144.71
vs Weaker (4)0.753.250.505.001.001.50
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D22D23L21W11D22D01L11D31W30WA·JFK23/09A·RĪG29/09H·JDF08/10A·SKA21/10H·PRO28/10A·SMI04/11H·SAL12/11H·RĪG06/04H·TUK13/04A·JFK21/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.431.131.331.331.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.121.290.751.251.441.33
vs Weaker (13)1.381.621.571.431.171.83
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.5%
Under 2.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.4%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
6.9%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
0-3
5.2%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
Valmiera II goals →
01234
03.8%5.6%7.1%5.2%2.9%
13.0%9.4%9.4%6.9%3.8%
22.6%5.7%6.3%4.6%2.5%
31.1%2.5%2.8%2.0%1.1%
40.4%0.8%0.9%0.7%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = Valmiera II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Rēzekne FA is 0.77 points worse than Valmiera II in terms of average points per game (0.54 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Rēzekne FA is 0.88 goals worse than Valmiera II in terms of goals scored per game (0.69 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Rēzekne FA is 1.73 goals worse than Valmiera II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.23 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L00D02L01L02L01L01L21W01LA·JDF17/09A·SKA24/09A·PRO30/09H·SMI07/10A·SAL22/10H·TUK29/10H·BEI12/11A·SUP06/04H·JFK15/04A·RIG20/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.500.471.200.201.80
vs Stronger (13)0.381.620.571.000.172.33
vs Similar (13)0.311.540.501.330.141.71
vs Weaker (4)0.251.000.001.500.500.50
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L23L10W10W20W01L11D11D00DA·JFK23/09A·RĪG29/09H·JDF08/10A·SKA21/10H·PRO28/10A·SMI04/11H·SAL12/11H·RĪG06/04H·TUK13/04A·JFK21/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.530.730.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.590.410.500.500.670.33
vs Weaker (13)0.690.920.571.000.830.83
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L06L00D10W02L05L20W04L01L05LA·JDF17/09A·SKA24/09A·PRO30/09H·SMI07/10A·SAL22/10H·TUK29/10H·BEI12/11A·SUP06/04H·JFK15/04A·RIG20/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.730.331.130.272.33
vs Stronger (13)0.381.150.290.430.502.00
vs Similar (13)0.152.150.331.170.003.00
vs Weaker (4)0.502.250.503.500.501.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W00D11D01L02L00D00D20W30WA·JFK23/09A·RĪG29/09H·JDF08/10A·SKA21/10H·PRO28/10A·SMI04/11H·SAL12/11H·RĪG06/04H·TUK13/04A·JFK21/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.600.600.601.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.880.250.750.781.00
vs Weaker (13)0.690.691.000.430.331.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
RF wins
0
Draws
3
VI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Rēzekne FA vs Valmiera II · H/A from RF
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/23AValmiera II Vs RF3-1
29/04/23HRF Vs Valmiera II0-1
05/11/22AValmiera II Vs RF4-0
23/07/22HRF Vs Valmiera II4-0

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24ARiga FC II Vs RF6-0
15/04/24HRF Vs JFK Ventspils2-2
06/04/24ASuper Nova Vs RF5-0
12/11/23HRF Vs Beitar2-1
29/10/23HRF Vs Tukums II0-7
22/10/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs RF3-0
07/10/23HRF Vs Smiltene1-2
30/09/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RF0-0
24/09/23ASkanste Vs RF9-0
17/09/23AJDFS Alberts Vs RF1-1

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24AJFK Ventspils Vs VI0-3
13/04/24HVI Vs Tukums II3-1
06/04/24HVI Vs Rīgas FS II1-1
12/11/23HVI Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-1
04/11/23ASmiltene Vs VI2-2
28/10/23HVI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-1
21/10/23ASkanste Vs VI1-2
08/10/23HVI Vs JDFS Alberts2-3
29/09/23ARīgas FS II Vs VI2-2
23/09/23AJFK Ventspils Vs VI0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.52
HomeLLLWD0.71
AwayLDLLL0.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%21%4%
AVG goals3.923.794.04
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %68%75%62%
Over 3.5 %56%58%54%
Scored0.901.250.58
Conceded3.022.543.46
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet8%12%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.44
HomeLDLDW1.58
AwayDDWDW1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals3.783.623.96
Over 1.5 %80%81%79%
Over 2.5 %64%58%71%
Over 3.5 %52%54%50%
Scored2.282.422.12
Conceded1.501.191.83
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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