Rhyl and Caersws face off in the Wales: FAW Championship on August 15, 2026. The recent form of both teams will be crucial, as Rhyl is coming off a defeat to Porthmadog, while Caersws is riding high after a win against Gresford Athletic. Rhyl has been strong at home, scoring an average of 2.21 goals and conceding 1.64, but will face a Caersws side that struggles to score away, averaging just 0.33 goals, but also concedes 2.67.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.4%. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 45%.
The model's selection for the over/under is Over 1.5, with a probability of 86.5%. Rhyl's home form suggests they will be the favourites to win, with a 45% chance of a home win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away win.
Rhyl's win extends their run of mixed results, having come off a win against Caersws in their previous encounter. The 4-2 scoreline mirrors the outcome of their last meeting, a 4-2 win for Rhyl. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 45%. This outcome was as expected, given Rhyl's stronger form at home and Caersws' weaker away record. The model's call was also correct, as Rhyl were the favourites. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 86.5%, while the most likely total goals was 3, with a probability of 22%.
Rhyl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 1.54 | 1.50 | 1.93 | 1.33 | 1.08 | 1.69 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.57 | 2.06 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 2.05 | 1.47 | 2.56 | 1.11 | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.20 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Caersws goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 10% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Rhyl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 0.62 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Rhyl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.90 | 1.31 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.32 | 0.84 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.5% | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.10 | - | - | - | +8.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/08/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 7-4 |
Rhyl| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |