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Rhyl vs Guilsfield Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 1-1
Rhyl
Rhyl
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Guilsfield
Guilsfield
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Rhyl and Guilsfield are set to clash in the Wales FAW Championship on August 1. Recent form suggests Rhyl is coming off a defeat, while Guilsfield is buoyed by a win in their last outing. Rhyl has been scoring at a rate of 1.78 goals per match at home, but conceding the same amount, whereas Guilsfield concedes 1.29 goals on average while scoring 1.0 on the road against similar opponents. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a most likely score of 1-1, occurring 11% of the time.

The model's selection is a home win, with a 51% chance of success. Rhyl's home win percentage is 51%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 25%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has a probability of 84.2%.

Results analysis

Rhyl's 1-1 draw with Guilsfield extends their run of inconsistent form, following a defeat in their previous outing. The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 51% probability, but it was not to be.

The model's selection of a home win MISSED, while the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.2%. Guilsfield's recent form, coming off a win, suggested they could cause an upset, and they did just that, securing a draw.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rhyl win✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.46
Edge
+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.57
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Draw✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.46
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Guilsfield win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.36
Edge
-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.38

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RhylRhyl

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W32W10W21W01L16L30W12L10W03LA·MOL21/02H·RUT01/03A·FLI10/03A·BRI17/03A·CAE21/03A·NEW24/03H·DEN27/03H·GUI03/04H·GRE07/04A·PEN18/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.832.071.671.002.00
vs Stronger (26)1.541.542.001.461.081.62
vs Similar (4)1.503.752.503.000.504.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Guilsfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GuilsfieldGuilsfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L01L44D01L03L21W14L41W40WA·BRI03/03A·HOL07/03H·LLA14/03H·HOL21/03A·FLI24/03A·AIR28/03A·RHY03/04A·LLA06/04H·CAE11/04H·GRE18/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.602.271.471.071.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.671.752.331.501.002.00
vs Weaker (18)1.671.502.221.441.111.56
Clean sheet %17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rhyl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.14+6.5%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 3.98-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.30
BetVictor
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.53+3.6%
Under 2.5
37.5%
@ 2.19-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Bet365
2.30
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.3%
@ 2.29+0.9%
Under 3.5
59.7%
@ 1.49-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.1%
@ 1.45+0.5%
No
36.9%
@ 2.42-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Betfair
1.40
No
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
William Hil
2.30

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.0%@ 6.83+4.7%
2-1
9.6%@ 9.00+4.9%
2-0
7.4%@ 13.17+4.1%
1-0
6.7%@ 10.50+2.6%
1-2
6.5%@ 8.92+1.7%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.67+2.2%
3-1
6.1%@ 16.00+3.5%
0-0
5.0%@ 13.33+1.8%
Rhyl goals ↓
Guilsfield goals →
01234
05.0%4.2%3.4%1.5%0.5%
16.7%11%6.5%2.8%0.9%
27.4%9.6%6.2%2.7%0.9%
34.7%6.1%4.0%1.7%0.6%
42.3%2.9%1.9%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rhyl goals (down), columns = Guilsfield goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bala Town
2.59
llanelli AFC
2.42
Caerau (Ely)
1.94
Newtown AFC
1.60
Rhyl
1.53
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Aberystwyth Town
1.47
Guilsfield
1.43
Llanuwchllyn
1.41
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.41
Caerphilly Athletic
1.41
Pontardawe Town
1.41
Porthmadog
1.41
Swansea University
1.41
Mold Alexandra
1.37
Cardiff Draconians
1.33
Denbigh Town
1.33
Newport City
1.23
Llantwit Major
1.23
Brickfield Rangers
1.23
Caersws
1.23
Treowen Stars
1.23
Holyhead Hotspur
1.20
Penrhyncoch
1.17
Pontypridd Town
1.13
Afan Lido
1.00
Buckley Town
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.97
Gresford Athletic
0.93
Baglan Dragons
0.81
Ruthin Town
0.77
Ynyshir Albions
0.77
Rhyl is 0.10 points better than Guilsfield in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.43).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bala Town
3.00
llanelli AFC
2.80
Caerau (Ely)
2.16
Denbigh Town
1.73
Newtown AFC
1.70
Treowen Stars
1.70
Cardiff Draconians
1.67
Guilsfield
1.67
Buckley Town
1.67
Llanuwchllyn
1.63
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.63
Caerphilly Athletic
1.63
Pontardawe Town
1.63
Porthmadog
1.63
Swansea University
1.63
Gresford Athletic
1.57
Caersws
1.53
Rhyl
1.53
Pontypridd Town
1.53
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.47
Holyhead Hotspur
1.47
Brickfield Rangers
1.30
Mold Alexandra
1.27
Newport City
1.20
Ruthin Town
1.20
Aberystwyth Town
1.17
Afan Lido
1.07
Ynyshir Albions
0.90
Baglan Dragons
0.84
Rhyl is 0.13 goals worse than Guilsfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Bala Town
0.89
llanelli AFC
0.95
Caerau (Ely)
1.10
Carmarthen Town
1.27
Aberystwyth Town
1.27
Mold Alexandra
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.57
Cardiff Draconians
1.60
Newport City
1.60
Guilsfield
1.60
Llanuwchllyn
1.63
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.63
Caerphilly Athletic
1.63
Pontardawe Town
1.63
Porthmadog
1.63
Swansea University
1.63
Holyhead Hotspur
1.63
Brickfield Rangers
1.63
Newtown AFC
1.63
Caersws
1.70
Pontypridd Town
1.70
Baglan Dragons
1.71
Penrhyncoch
1.77
Rhyl
1.83
Ynyshir Albions
1.87
Afan Lido
1.90
Denbigh Town
1.97
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.07
Treowen Stars
2.10
Ruthin Town
2.13
Buckley Town
2.57
Gresford Athletic
2.90
Rhyl is 0.23 goals worse than Guilsfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%1.14
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
--+6.5%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (36)
€1m
LA (37)
€1m
AT (39)
€0m
NC (44)
€0m
RHY (39)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Rhyl vs Guilsfield · H/A from RHY
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/26HRHY Vs Guilsfield1-2
09/08/25AGuilsfield Vs RHY2-3

RhylRhyl

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26APenrhyncoch Vs RHY3-0
07/04/26HRHY Vs Gresford Athletic1-0
03/04/26HRHY Vs Guilsfield1-2
27/03/26HRHY Vs Denbigh Town3-0
24/03/26ANewtown AFC Vs RHY6-1
21/03/26ACaersws Vs RHY1-0
17/03/26ABrickfield Rangers Vs RHY1-2
10/03/26AFlint Mountain Vs RHY0-1
01/03/26HRHY Vs Ruthin Town3-2
21/02/26AMold Alexandra Vs RHY0-1

GuilsfieldGuilsfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HGUI Vs Gresford Athletic4-0
11/04/26HGUI Vs Caersws4-1
06/04/26ALlandudno Vs GUI4-1
03/04/26ARhyl Vs GUI1-2
28/03/26AAirbus UK Vs GUI3-0
24/03/26AFlint Mountain Vs GUI1-0
21/03/26HGUI Vs Holywell4-4
14/03/26HGUI Vs Llandudno0-1
07/03/26AHolyhead Hotspur Vs GUI1-0
03/03/26ABrickfield Rangers Vs GUI2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Rhyl
Rhyl
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.53
HomeLWWLW1.87
AwayWWLLL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%60%33%
AVG goals3.373.733.00
Over 1.5 %80%87%73%
Over 2.5 %73%87%60%
Over 3.5 %43%53%33%
Scored1.532.071.00
Conceded1.831.672.00
BTTS60%67%53%
Clean Sheet23%27%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Guilsfield
Guilsfield
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.56
HomeLLDWW2.12
AwayLLLWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%67%27%
AVG goals3.423.922.96
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %68%79%58%
Over 3.5 %44%54%35%
Scored1.842.501.23
Conceded1.581.421.73
BTTS70%75%65%
Clean Sheet14%17%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers39
100%
3.0
122+10
4.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0004.00.7
-
2Swansea UniversitySwansea University39
100%
3.0
90+9
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.0
-
3Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town39
100%
3.0
105+5
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.31.7
-
4Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town39
100%
3.0
95+4
4.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.01.7
-
5Newtown AFCNewtown AFC37
67%
2.3
91+8
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.3
-
6PorthmadogPorthmadog37
67%
2.3
52+3
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.7
-
7Newport CityNewport City36
67%
2.0
93+6
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.01.0
-
8Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC36
67%
2.0
83+5
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.0
-
9Treowen StarsTreowen Stars36
67%
2.0
74+3
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
10Bala TownBala Town26
100%
3.0
42+2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.0
-
11GuilsfieldGuilsfield35
33%
1.7
54+1
3.0
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
12Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)34
33%
1.3
87+1
5.0
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.72.3
-
13RhylRhyl34
33%
1.3
54+1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
14Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions24
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
15Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra34
33%
1.3
55+0
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
16CaerswsCaersws34
33%
1.3
56-1
3.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
17Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons34
33%
1.3
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.0
-
18Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town23
50%
1.5
64+2
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.02.0
-
19Afan LidoAfan Lido33
33%
1.0
88+0
5.3
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.72.7
-
20Denbigh TownDenbigh Town33
33%
1.0
66+0
4.0
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
21Ruthin TownRuthin Town33
33%
1.0
45-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
22Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur33
33%
1.0
34-1
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
23Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town33
33%
1.0
57-2
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.3
-
24LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn33
33%
1.0
311-8
4.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.7
-
25Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds32
0%
0.7
35-2
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
26Buckley TownBuckley Town31
0%
0.3
47-3
3.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
27Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians31
0%
0.3
15-4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
-
28llanelli AFCllanelli AFC31
0%
0.3
28-6
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
29Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic31
0%
0.3
06-6
2.0
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
31Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
32Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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