Ried's recent form has been a concern, having suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 1-4 loss to Lask Linz. However, they face Grazer AK, who are also coming off a defeat, having lost 0-8 to Rapid Vienna. This match is expected to be a closely contested one, with Ried being the favourite to win, having a 50% chance of taking home the three points. The model predicts a home win, aligning with the market's favourite outcome.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%. Ried has a strong record at home, scoring an average of 1.29 goals and conceding 0.86. Grazer AK, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.9 goals and conceding 2.0.
The model's selection is Home or Draw, with an 81.2% chance of occurring, providing a 15% edge. The model also suggests Over 1.5, with a 78.4% chance, offering a 7% edge. Home or Away is another selection, with a 75.6% chance and a 5% edge. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 50%, 26%, and 24%, respectively.
Results analysis
Ried’s win extends their recent form, ending a sequence of WLLDL with a 1-0 victory over Grazer AK. The model’s favourite was a home win, predicted with a 50 % probability, and the call proved correct. The final score of 1-0 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit at 99 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1 %, Under 6.5 at 97.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6 %, Home +2 handicap at 93.0 %, Under 5.5 at 92.8 %, and Away under 2.5 goals at 91.9 %. Each pick landed, underscoring the model’s accurate assessment of the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ried win✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.95
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.43
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.68
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
Grazer AK win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.73
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.90
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.67
0.93
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
1.60
1.00
0.80
2.60
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.17
1.70
0.90
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grazer AK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.40
1.79
1.07
1.19
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.38
1.00
1.33
0.60
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.10
2.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.28+5.3%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 3.42-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.90+3.6%
Under 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.86-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
SBO
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
888Sport
1.91
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Betfair
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
@ 3.22+1.9%
Under 3.5
69.2%
@ 1.31-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
888Sport
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Betfair
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
@ 1.74+2.4%
No
44.3%
@ 1.99-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.25+5.3%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.89+4.0%
1-0 ✓
9.2%@ 6.85+2.7%
2-0
8.8%@ 8.94+3.8%
0-0
7.2%@ 9.74+2.6%
1-2
6.3%@ 11.45+2.3%
0-1
5.5%@ 10.29+1.2%
3-1
5.5%@ 14.33+2.4%
Ried goals ↓
Grazer AK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.5%
3.7%
1.3%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.3%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.7%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.0%
5.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.1%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ried goals (down), columns = Grazer AK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
SCR Altach
1.31
TSV Hartberg
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Grazer AK
1.16
Austria Lustenau
1.06
Ried is 0.22 points better than Grazer AK in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
WSG Wattens
1.25
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
SCR Altach
1.12
Austria Lustenau
1.04
Ried is 0.11 goals worse than Grazer AK in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
Austria Vienna
1.56
WSG Wattens
1.62
Austria Lustenau
1.76
Ried is 0.06 goals better than Grazer AK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
Ried is 1.6 percentage points better than Grazer AK in terms of average possession (49% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ried
For 4.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grazer AK
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.7
3.9
4.0
3.7
22.8
22.4
23.2
vs Stronger (14)
8.9
10.3
7.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
20.2
20.7
19.8
vs Similar (29)
8.8
8.9
8.8
4.7
4.4
4.9
23.9
22.7
25.5
vs Weaker (7)
9.3
4.0
12.0
1.6
3.0
1.3
22.7
29.0
19.5
% over line
38%
41%
35%
62%
64%
60%
62%
55%
70%
% under line
62%
59%
65%
38%
36%
40%
38%
45%
30%
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grazer AK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
8.9
4.2
5.0
3.3
23.2
23.5
23.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
10.7
10.2
4.4
5.2
3.8
22.6
22.2
22.9
vs Similar (34)
8.4
8.5
8.2
4.3
5.0
3.6
23.5
23.9
23.1
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
33%
46%
60%
79%
42%
67%
71%
62%
% under line
60%
67%
54%
40%
21%
58%
33%
29%
38%
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.3
Lask Linz
10.3
TSV Hartberg
9.9
WSG Wattens
9.8
Sturm Graz
9.7
Wolfsberger AC
9.6
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Austria Lustenau
9.4
Red Bull Salzburg
9.3
Grazer AK
9.0
SCR Altach
8.9
Ried
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.2
Austria Lustenau
4.9
TSV Hartberg
4.7
Sturm Graz
4.7
Grazer AK
4.6
Wolfsberger AC
4.6
Ried
4.5
Austria Vienna
4.4
WSG Wattens
4.4
Rapid Vienna
4.0
Red Bull Salzburg
3.9
Lask Linz
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.8
SCR Altach
23.4
Grazer AK
23.2
Austria Lustenau
23.2
Austria Vienna
22.9
Wolfsberger AC
22.9
WSG Wattens
22.4
Ried
22.3
TSV Hartberg
22.0
Lask Linz
20.7
Red Bull Salzburg
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.0%
@ 2.01-3.1%
Under 9.5
57.0%
@ 1.72+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.9%
@ 1.69+0.7%
Under 3.5
45.1%
@ 2.00-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
Under
Superbet
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.4%
Under 21.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ried or Draw✓ Hit
81.2%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.25
Edge
+6.2%
50%
26%
23%
covers Ried + Draw
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Ried or Grazer AK✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
+2.3%
50%
26%
23%
covers Ried + Grazer AK
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Draw or Grazer AK✗ Miss
43.3%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.80
Edge
-8.5%
50%
26%
23%
covers Draw + Grazer AK
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
1xBet
1.82
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ried over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.7%
@ 1.19+6.9%
Under
15.3%
@ 4.18-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Pinnacle
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Ried over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.0%
@ 1.99+9.1%
Under
44.0%
@ 1.76-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Betfair
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Ried over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.0%
@ 4.13+6.5%
Under
71.0%
@ 1.20-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.40
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Ried over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 9.57+2.3%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.05-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
11.00
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.80
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Grazer AK over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.4%
@ 1.42-1.9%
Under
36.6%
@ 2.67+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.76
888Sport
2.75
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.67
Grazer AK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 3.11-3.2%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.32+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Marathonbet
3.16
Under
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Grazer AK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 8.04-3.5%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Grazer AK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 21.25-2.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ried, so a minus line means Ried give that many goals of a start and Grazer AK receive them. At -1, Ried must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ried win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ried)Actual: Grazer AK
Ried -2
16.0%
@ 7.65+4.2%
Draw -2
17.7%
@ 5.52+1.5%
Grazer AK +2
66.3%
@ 1.24-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.85
Unibet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Ried)Actual: Draw
Ried -1
33.7%
@ 3.53+8.4%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.59-1.9%
Grazer AK +1
43.3%
@ 1.80-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Away
Superbet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Handicap +1 (Ried)Actual: Ried
Ried +1
81.2%
@ 1.24+8.8%
Draw +1
11.8%
@ 5.34-5.0%
Grazer AK -1
7.0%
@ 8.35-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Handicap +2 (Ried)Actual: Ried
Ried +2
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Draw +2
5.1%
@ 12.50-2.4%
Grazer AK -2
1.9%
@ 24.50-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.53
0.20
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.20
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.33
0.50
0.20
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grazer AK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.86
0.50
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.48
0.91
0.27
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.1%
@ 1.36+0.1%
Under 0.5
31.9%
@ 2.90-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.24
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.71-2.4%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.41+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.82
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.6%
@ 6.80-2.0%
Under 2.5
88.4%
@ 1.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.85
William Hil
6.50
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ried over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.1%
@ 1.82-1.9%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.90+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.89
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Ried over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 5.23-4.7%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Ried over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 14.25-3.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Grazer AK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.8%
@ 2.43+0.5%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.51-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Grazer AK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 8.66-1.0%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Grazer AK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 23.83-2.8%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
1.13
0.73
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
1.20
0.70
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grazer AK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.93
0.57
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.33
0.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.62
1.09
0.73
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ried over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.07
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.7%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.5%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.2%
1.25
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.2%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.28
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
1.27
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.8%
1.27
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.4%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.0%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-6.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ried
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Niama Pape Sissoko40%
Jussef Nasrawe25%
Stefan Schwab20%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi20%
Evan Eghosa20%
Ante Bajić0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Malicsek40%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi40%
Niama Pape Sissoko40%
Joris Boguo33%
Tino Kusanović33%
Tobias Lund Jensen25%
Martin Rasner20%
Stefan Schwab0%
Ante Bajić0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Jussef Nasrawe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ante Bajić40%
Jussef Nasrawe25%
Stefan Schwab20%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Niama Pape Sissoko0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi20%
Niama Pape Sissoko20%
Stefan Schwab0%
Ante Bajić0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
Jussef Nasrawe0%
Grazer AK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donovan Pines20%
Alexander Hofleitner20%
Cican Stanković0%
Christian Lichtenberger0%
Peter Michorl0%
Tobias Koch0%
Anderson0%
Leon Klassen0%
Daniel Maderner0%
Mark Große0%
Matthias Gragger0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ismaël Guerti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Peter Michorl60%
Donovan Pines60%
Leon Klassen40%
Yannick Oberleitner33%
Tobias Koch25%
Anderson25%
Daniel Maderner20%
Beres Owusu20%
Alexander Hofleitner20%
Cican Stanković0%
Christian Lichtenberger0%
Mark Große0%
Matthias Gragger0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ismaël Guerti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Lichtenberger25%
Peter Michorl20%
Cican Stanković0%
Tobias Koch0%
Anderson0%
Leon Klassen0%
Donovan Pines0%
Daniel Maderner0%
Mark Große0%
Matthias Gragger0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ismaël Guerti0%
Alexander Hofleitner0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ismaël Guerti33%
Anderson25%
Matthias Gragger25%
Peter Michorl20%
Leon Klassen20%
Alexander Hofleitner20%
Cican Stanković0%
Christian Lichtenberger0%
Tobias Koch0%
Donovan Pines0%
Daniel Maderner0%
Mark Große0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Ried's squad is €2m less valuable than Grazer AK's (€7m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Ried and Grazer AK have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Ried's midfield is €1m more valuable than Grazer AK's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Ried's defence is €3m less valuable than Grazer AK's (€3m vs €6m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
WSG Wattens
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna