PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between Ried and Rapid Vienna is finely balanced, with Ried coming off a draw against Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna on a 2-game winning run. The model predicts a home win for Ried, with a 40% chance of a home victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.1%. Ried has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.5 goals and conceding 1.5 goals per match against stronger opponents. Rapid Vienna, on the other hand, has performed well away from home, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 1 goal per match against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, but it also suggests Under 3.5 goals (75.9%) and Over 1.5 goals (72.4%) in this match. Ried has a 40% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing.
The win extends Ried's run of form, having come off a draw and now securing a narrow victory. The final score was 2-1 in their favour, with the actual result being a home win. The model's selection, home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was vindicated, as it was the favoured outcome. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.9%, as the game's total goals stayed under that mark. Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 72.4%, as the home team scored more than once.
Ried| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 1.57 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 1.14 | 1.58 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.50 | 0.87 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.75 | 1.88 | 0.89 | 1.56 | 0.57 | 2.29 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Rapid Vienna goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 14% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
RiedRapid ViennaRied| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 22.8 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 22.1 | 23.0 | 21.2 |
| vs Similar (33) | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 8.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 24.2 | 26.7 | 17.0 |
| % over line | 37% | 41% | 33% | 66% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 59% | 67% |
| % under line | 63% | 59% | 67% | 34% | 32% | 36% | 37% | 41% | 33% |
Rapid Vienna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 24.7 | 24.1 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 21.0 | 30.0 |
| vs Similar (25) | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 25.3 | 25.9 | 24.6 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 23.9 | 22.7 | 25.1 |
| % over line | 57% | 55% | 59% | 56% | 43% | 67% | 73% | 68% | 77% |
| % under line | 43% | 45% | 41% | 44% | 57% | 33% | 27% | 32% | 23% |
Ried| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.50 | 0.32 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.25 | 0.94 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Ried| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 0.82 | 1.08 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/10/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/07/22 | A | 1-0 |
Ried| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-2 |
Rapid Vienna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lask Linz | 32 | 58 | 53% | 1.8 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 3.1 | 78% | 59% | 41% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.8 | 41% | 48 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 2 |  Sturm Graz | 32 | 56 | 50% | 1.8 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 2.7 | 78% | 41% | 28% | 10.0 | 53% | 5.3 | 75% | 22.5 | 62% | 59 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 32 | 48 | 41% | 1.5 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 38% | 9.2 | 44% | 4.2 | 48% | 20.4 | 31% | 192 | 93 | 40 | 59 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 60% |
| 4 | Ried | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 2.5 | 80% | 49% | 20% | 9.2 | 40% | 4.7 | 74% | 23.1 | 63% | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 5 | Rapid Vienna | 34 | 47 | 38% | 1.4 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 2.4 | 82% | 41% | 15% | 9.8 | 56% | 4.2 | 62% | 23.8 | 68% | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 56% |
| 6 |  Austria Vienna | 32 | 47 | 44% | 1.5 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 3.0 | 81% | 59% | 38% | 9.7 | 44% | 4.1 | 61% | 22.4 | 50% | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 7 |  TSV Hartberg | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 40 | 40 | +0 | 2.5 | 62% | 47% | 31% | 9.4 | 44% | 4.4 | 68% | 22.1 | 56% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 39% |
| 8 |  SCR Altach | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 2.3 | 69% | 41% | 28% | 8.3 | 25% | 4.9 | 74% | 23.2 | 56% | 12 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Wolfsberger AC | 33 | 41 | 33% | 1.2 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 2.6 | 79% | 58% | 30% | 8.9 | 39% | 4.6 | 71% | 23.4 | 64% | 35 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 10 |  WSG Wattens | 32 | 40 | 31% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.9 | 81% | 50% | 38% | 9.8 | 44% | 4.2 | 61% | 23.1 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 11 |  Grazer AK | 32 | 37 | 28% | 1.2 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 2.7 | 81% | 59% | 28% | 8.5 | 38% | 4.4 | 61% | 24.4 | 72% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 12 |  FC BW Linz | 32 | 29 | 25% | 0.9 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 2.7 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8.6 | 28% | 4.8 | 70% | 22.3 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 50% |