This highly anticipated match between Ried and Wolfsberger AC in the Austria: Bundesliga promises to be a closely contested affair. Wolfsberger AC's recent 3-0 win over Austria Vienna has set them up for a strong performance, but Ried's draw against Austria Lustenau suggests they're not to be underestimated. The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of Ried taking the three points.
The expected total goals stand at 2.7, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring 13.5% of the time. In terms of form, Ried's home scoring and conceding averages are 0.88 goals per game, while Wolfsberger AC's away scoring and conceding averages are 0.67 and 1.67 goals per game, respectively, against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 76% chance of success and Under 3.5 with a 71.8% chance. The home win percentage stands at 38%, the draw at 28%, and the away win at 34%.
Results analysis
Ried's win extends their run of inconsistent form, having drawn their previous match. The 2-1 scoreline saw the home team secure a narrow victory, with the actual result aligning with the model's call for a home win. The model's selection was correct, given the pre-match probability of 38% for a home win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 76%, while Under 3.5 goals also came in, as predicted with a 71.8% chance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ried win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC win✗ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.38
0.94
0.93
1.57
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.57
1.25
1.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.27
0.88
0.88
1.14
1.71
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.88
2.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.33
1.14
0.86
1.69
1.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.40
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.35
1.00
0.88
0.89
1.78
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
1.25
1.00
0.33
3.00
1.80
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-0
8.3%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
5.7%
Ried goals ↓
Wolfsberger AC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.6%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.3%
14%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.5%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.0%
3.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ried goals (down), columns = Wolfsberger AC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
TSV Hartberg
1.31
SCR Altach
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Grazer AK
1.16
FC BW Linz
0.91
Ried is 0.13 points better than Wolfsberger AC in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
FC BW Linz
1.16
SCR Altach
1.12
Ried is 0.07 goals worse than Wolfsberger AC in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
FC BW Linz
1.53
Austria Vienna
1.56
WSG Wattens
1.62
Ried is 0.01 goals worse than Wolfsberger AC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
FC BW Linz
50%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
Ried is 1.4 percentage points worse than Wolfsberger AC in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ried
For 4.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.0 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wolfsberger AC
For 5.4 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.9
8.7
4.1
4.1
4.1
23.1
23.5
22.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.2
11.5
7.0
3.9
3.8
4.0
22.1
23.0
21.2
vs Similar (23)
8.6
8.4
8.9
4.5
3.8
5.3
22.7
22.8
22.5
vs Weaker (17)
8.8
8.3
9.3
3.8
5.0
2.9
24.5
24.7
24.2
% over line
37%
41%
33%
64%
64%
64%
65%
64%
67%
% under line
63%
59%
67%
36%
36%
36%
35%
36%
33%
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.8
3.9
3.8
4.1
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Stronger (10)
8.7
5.7
11.0
4.7
4.6
4.8
20.4
23.0
18.5
vs Similar (29)
9.8
9.9
9.6
4.3
3.6
5.1
23.4
23.1
23.8
vs Weaker (11)
9.5
9.8
9.2
2.3
3.2
1.7
23.2
21.8
24.8
% over line
51%
48%
55%
60%
54%
65%
60%
62%
59%
% under line
49%
52%
45%
40%
46%
35%
40%
38%
41%
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.3
Lask Linz
10.3
Rapid Vienna
9.8
WSG Wattens
9.8
Wolfsberger AC
9.5
Sturm Graz
9.5
TSV Hartberg
9.4
Red Bull Salzburg
9.1
Grazer AK
9.0
FC BW Linz
8.8
Ried
8.6
SCR Altach
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.4
Grazer AK
5.0
Sturm Graz
5.0
Ried
4.9
TSV Hartberg
4.8
Wolfsberger AC
4.6
FC BW Linz
4.6
WSG Wattens
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.5
Rapid Vienna
4.4
Lask Linz
4.0
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
24.4
SCR Altach
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.7
Grazer AK
23.3
Wolfsberger AC
22.9
Ried
22.8
Austria Vienna
22.7
FC BW Linz
22.5
WSG Wattens
22.4
TSV Hartberg
22.1
Lask Linz
20.6
Red Bull Salzburg
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.6%
Under 9.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.0%
Under 3.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
61.5%
Under 21.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.40
0.38
0.25
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.64
0.29
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.47
0.50
0.25
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ried over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.88
0.62
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.50
0.62
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.75
0.50
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.50
0.57
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.50
0.62
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.33
0.00
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ried over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (36)
€192m
SG (32)
€59m
LL (26)
€48m
RV (37)
€46m
WA (33)
€35m
AV (35)
€30m
TH (30)
€14m
RIE (27)
€12m
SA (30)
€12m
GA (27)
€10m
Ried's squad is €23m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€12m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€93m
SG (10)
€20m
LL (8)
€17m
RV (13)
€17m
WA (11)
€14m
AV (13)
€13m
RIE (7)
€6m
GA (8)
€4m
TH (8)
€4m
SA (12)
€4m
Ried's attack is €8m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€6m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (9)
€40m
SG (5)
€17m
RV (7)
€10m
LL (8)
€8m
AV (6)
€7m
RIE (10)
€4m
WA (7)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
SA (4)
€1m
Ried's midfield is €1m more valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (16)
€59m
LL (10)
€22m
SG (17)
€22m
RV (17)
€19m
WA (15)
€18m
AV (16)
€10m
TH (15)
€7m
SA (14)
€6m
GA (12)
€4m
RIE (10)
€2m
Ried's defence is €16m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€2m vs €18m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
TSV Hartberg
SCR Altach
WSG Wattens
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz