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Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-2
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Vs
50%
25%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga FC II win✗ Miss
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK win✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W30W21W11D15L22D04L23L01L02LH·PRO26/10A·SMI02/11H·MĀR10/11H·RIG29/03A·SMI06/04H·RĪG14/04A·JDF18/04H·RĒZ27/04H·SKA04/05A·MĀR11/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.432.291.001.691.81
vs Stronger (19)1.581.211.780.781.401.60
vs Similar (9)1.442.221.751.751.202.60
vs Weaker (2)8.000.009.000.007.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D14L00D01L12L11D11D40W12L04LH·TUK28/10A·JFK02/11A·VAL10/11H·OGR28/03A·TUK06/04H·AUG12/04A·RIG19/04A·SMI27/04A·RĪG03/05H·JDF10/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.531.141.641.251.44
vs Stronger (21)1.331.331.301.101.361.55
vs Similar (6)0.502.330.333.330.671.33
vs Weaker (3)1.671.332.002.001.501.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
1-2 ✓
6.5%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
Riga FC II goals ↓
Leevon / PPK goals →
01234
06.0%4.9%3.6%1.5%0.4%
17.8%12%6.5%2.6%0.8%
28.0%9.7%5.9%2.4%0.7%
34.8%5.8%3.5%1.4%0.4%
42.2%2.6%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga FC II goals (down), columns = Leevon / PPK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
Riga FC II is 0.46 points worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
Riga FC II is 0.19 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
Riga FC II is 0.12 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.54).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D00D13L10W02L12L00D01LH·PRO26/10A·SMI02/11H·MĀR10/11H·RIG29/03A·SMI06/04H·RĪG14/04A·JDF18/04H·RĒZ27/04H·SKA04/05A·MĀR11/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.790.360.621.12
vs Stronger (19)0.580.530.560.000.601.00
vs Similar (9)0.671.440.751.250.601.60
vs Weaker (2)2.000.003.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L00D00D11D01L00D20W01L02LH·TUK28/10A·JFK02/11A·VAL10/11H·OGR28/03A·TUK06/04H·AUG12/04A·RIG19/04A·SMI27/04A·RĪG03/05H·JDF10/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.900.361.070.620.75
vs Stronger (21)0.520.860.500.800.550.91
vs Similar (6)0.171.000.001.670.330.33
vs Weaker (3)1.001.000.002.001.500.50
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W21W11D02L12L02L11D01L01LH·PRO26/10A·SMI02/11H·MĀR10/11H·RIG29/03A·SMI06/04H·RĪG14/04A·JDF18/04H·RĒZ27/04H·SKA04/05A·MĀR11/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.671.500.641.060.69
vs Stronger (19)1.000.681.220.780.800.60
vs Similar (9)0.780.781.000.500.601.00
vs Weaker (2)6.000.006.000.006.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L00D01L01L10W11D20W11D02LH·TUK28/10A·JFK02/11A·VAL10/11H·OGR28/03A·TUK06/04H·AUG12/04A·RIG19/04A·SMI27/04A·RĪG03/05H·JDF10/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.790.570.620.69
vs Stronger (21)0.810.480.800.300.820.64
vs Similar (6)0.331.330.331.670.331.00
vs Weaker (3)0.670.332.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
RFI wins
0
Draws
0
L/P wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK · H/A from RFI
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/24ALeevon / PPK Vs RFI1-4
11/05/24HRFI Vs Leevon / PPK2-1

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25AMārupe Vs RFI2-0
04/05/25HRFI Vs Skanste0-1
27/04/25HRFI Vs Rēzekne FA2-3
18/04/25AJDFS Alberts Vs RFI4-0
14/04/25HRFI Vs Rīgas FS II2-2
06/04/25ASmiltene Vs RFI5-1
29/03/25HRFI Vs Riga Mariners1-1
10/11/24HRFI Vs Mārupe2-1
02/11/24ASmiltene Vs RFI0-3
26/10/24HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine4-0

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/25HL/P Vs JDFS Alberts0-4
03/05/25ARīgas FS II Vs L/P2-1
27/04/25ASmiltene Vs L/P0-4
19/04/25ARiga Mariners Vs L/P1-1
12/04/25HL/P Vs Augšdaugava1-1
06/04/25ATukums II Vs L/P2-1
28/03/25HL/P Vs Ogre United0-1
10/11/24AValmiera II Vs L/P0-0
02/11/24AJFK Ventspils Vs L/P4-1
28/10/24HL/P Vs Tukums II2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.84
HomeWDDLL1.96
AwayDWLLL1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%54%50%
AVG goals3.603.923.31
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %68%71%65%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored2.483.002.00
Conceded1.120.921.31
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.09
HomeLDLDL1.19
AwayDLDWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%31%29%
AVG goals2.823.002.65
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %55%56%53%
Over 3.5 %30%38%24%
Scored1.331.381.29
Conceded1.481.621.35
BTTS48%62%35%
Clean Sheet21%6%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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