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Riga FC II vs Progress / AFA Olaine Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 7-2
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Vs
70%
17%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga FC II win✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine win✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D02L01L13L23L01L10W30WH·TUK07/07A·AUG20/07A·RIG26/07H·SMI01/08A·RĪG11/08H·JDF25/08A·RĒZ31/08A·SKA12/09H·MĀR20/09A·LEE27/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.431.801.201.131.67
vs Stronger (17)1.121.291.331.000.881.62
vs Similar (11)1.361.911.252.251.431.71
vs Weaker (2)5.000.005.000.00--
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-823L30W05L04L18L33D06L32W21W16LA·LEE06/07H·RĒZ19/07A·JFK26/07H·OGR03/08A·TUK08/08H·AUG23/08A·RIG30/08H·SMI13/09A·RĪG20/09H·JDF28/09
Avg total
5.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.871.762.291.313.62
vs Stronger (4)2.251.502.001.502.501.50
vs Similar (15)1.802.732.002.111.503.67
vs Weaker (11)1.003.551.332.830.604.40
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%2%06%115%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.4%
Under 1.5
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.1%
Under 2.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.5%
Under 3.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.3%
1-1
6.8%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
5.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-2
4.8%
Riga FC II goals ↓
Progress / AFA Olaine goals →
01234
02.5%1.6%1.3%0.5%0.2%
14.6%6.8%3.7%1.5%0.4%
27.3%8.7%5.2%2.1%0.6%
36.8%8.1%4.8%1.9%0.6%
44.7%5.6%3.4%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga FC II goals (down), columns = Progress / AFA Olaine goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
Riga FC II is 0.08 points better than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 0.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
Riga FC II is 0.15 goals worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
Riga FC II is 1.73 goals better than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 3.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D01L00D02L21W00D00D10WH·TUK07/07A·AUG20/07A·RIG26/07H·SMI01/08A·RĪG11/08H·JDF25/08A·RĒZ31/08A·SKA12/09H·MĀR20/09A·LEE27/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.600.400.670.80
vs Stronger (17)0.470.530.440.220.500.88
vs Similar (11)0.730.820.501.000.860.71
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.500.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W00D03L01L05L02L02L20W11D13LA·LEE06/07H·RĒZ19/07A·JFK26/07H·OGR03/08A·TUK08/08H·AUG23/08A·RIG30/08H·SMI13/09A·RĪG20/09H·JDF28/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.200.820.760.921.77
vs Stronger (4)1.250.501.000.501.500.50
vs Similar (15)1.001.200.890.561.172.17
vs Weaker (11)0.551.450.671.170.401.80
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D01L01L11D02L01L10W20WH·TUK07/07A·AUG20/07A·RIG26/07H·SMI01/08A·RĪG11/08H·JDF25/08A·RĒZ31/08A·SKA12/09H·MĀR20/09A·LEE27/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.831.200.800.470.87
vs Stronger (17)0.650.760.890.780.380.75
vs Similar (11)0.641.090.751.250.571.00
vs Weaker (2)3.500.003.500.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L30W02L03L13L31W04L12L10W03LA·LEE06/07H·RĒZ19/07A·JFK26/07H·OGR03/08A·TUK08/08H·AUG23/08A·RIG30/08H·SMI13/09A·RĪG20/09H·JDF28/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.670.941.530.381.85
vs Stronger (4)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (15)0.801.531.111.560.331.50
vs Weaker (11)0.452.090.671.670.202.60
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Home win70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
6
RFI wins
1
Draws
0
P/A wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga FC II vs Progress / AFA Olaine · H/A from RFI
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RFI1-1
26/10/24HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine4-0
06/07/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RFI1-4
07/10/23HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine11-2
03/06/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RFI0-1
19/10/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RFI0-8
13/05/22HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-0

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25ALeevon / PPK Vs RFI0-3
20/09/25HRFI Vs Mārupe1-0
12/09/25ASkanste Vs RFI1-0
31/08/25ARēzekne FA Vs RFI3-2
25/08/25HRFI Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
11/08/25ARīgas FS II Vs RFI1-0
01/08/25HRFI Vs Smiltene0-2
26/07/25ARiga Mariners Vs RFI0-0
20/07/25AAugšdaugava Vs RFI2-1
07/07/25HRFI Vs Tukums II1-0

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25HP/A Vs JDFS Alberts1-6
20/09/25ARīgas FS II Vs P/A1-2
13/09/25HP/A Vs Smiltene3-2
30/08/25ARiga Mariners Vs P/A6-0
23/08/25HP/A Vs Augšdaugava3-3
08/08/25ATukums II Vs P/A8-1
03/08/25HP/A Vs Ogre United0-4
26/07/25AJFK Ventspils Vs P/A5-0
19/07/25HP/A Vs Rēzekne FA3-0
06/07/25ALeevon / PPK Vs P/A3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.38
HomeDWLLW1.50
AwayDLLLW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%35%
AVG goals3.083.003.15
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.801.921.69
Conceded1.281.081.46
BTTS46%54%38%
Clean Sheet32%33%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL0.94
HomeWLDWL1.28
AwayLLLLW0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%32%16%
AVG goals4.224.044.40
Over 1.5 %90%84%96%
Over 2.5 %76%72%80%
Over 3.5 %66%68%64%
Scored1.581.881.28
Conceded2.642.163.12
BTTS70%68%72%
Clean Sheet12%20%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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