Rilski Sportist are tipped to win this home fixture against Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, with a 58% chance of victory, a 24% draw probability and a 18% chance for the visitors. The model expects 2.8 goals, most likely a 1-1 draw with a 11.6% probability. Rilski Sportist, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, away against a stronger opponent, average 0.71 goals scored and 2.86 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Home +2 handicap (93.5%), Under 5.5 (93.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.9%) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.7%). Rilski Sportist have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, while Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are returning from a defeat. The overall shape of the match points to a modestly high-scoring game favouring the home side.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rilski Sportist win
57.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rilski Sportist
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.20
1.33
0.93
2.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
2.17
0.50
1.33
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
1.67
1.33
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
5.1%
Rilski Sportist goals ↓
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.6%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.9%
12%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.0%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rilski Sportist goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Beroe
1.57
Montana
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Rilski Sportist is 0.14 points worse than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Rilski Sportist and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Rilski Sportist is 0.29 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rilski Sportist or Draw
81.9%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
18%
covers Rilski Sportist + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
75.6%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
18%
covers Rilski Sportist + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
42.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 3.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rilski Sportist, so a minus line means Rilski Sportist give that many goals of a start and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa receive them. At -1, Rilski Sportist must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rilski Sportist win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rilski Sportist)
Rilski Sportist -2
16.2%
Draw -2
18.0%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +2
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rilski Sportist)
Rilski Sportist -1
34.3%
Draw -1
23.3%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +1
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rilski Sportist)
Rilski Sportist +1
81.9%
Draw +1
11.5%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -1
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rilski Sportist)
Rilski Sportist +2
93.5%
Draw +2
4.8%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rilski Sportist
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.53
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.33
0.67
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.56
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rilski Sportist
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.92
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.72
0.78
0.78
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
RS wins
0
Draws
0
LGO wins
Head-to-head
Rilski Sportist vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · H/A from RS
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad