Rizespor vs Beşiktaş Result & Analysis

Rizespor’s home form has been fragile, conceding four goals on average against stronger opposition, while Beşiktaş, on the road, has been a solid scorers’ unit, averaging 1.8 goals and keeping 0.9. The model favours an away win, with a 46% chance, and the draw and home win probabilities sit at 27% each. The expected total is 2.8 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% event. The suggested picks are: Over 19.5 fouls 91.8%; Over 2.5 cards 84.4%; Over 21.5 fouls 83.4%; Over 1.5 78.1%; Under 11.5 corners 74.9%; Over 23.5 fouls 71.2%. Rizespor’s recent five games were LWDLW, ending with a 0-2 loss to Samsunspor, while Beşiktaş’s last five were LWWWW, concluding with a 0-1 defeat to Alanyaspor. The match is likely to see Beşiktaş edge out a win in a tight contest.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Away win, failed to deliver, with the match ending in a 2-2 draw. The model had given the away side a 46 % chance of triumph, yet the result was a stalemate. Rizespor, after a 0-2 loss to Samsunspor, had a shaky home run of LWDLW, while Beşiktaş, fresh from a 0-1 defeat to Alanyaspor, carried a strong LWWWW away streak. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.4 %, Over 1.5 hit at 78.1 %, Under 11.5 corners hit at 74.9 %, while Over 19.5 fouls, Over 21.5 fouls and Over 23.5 fouls all missed despite probabilities of 91.8 %, 83.4 % and 71.2 % respectively.