This highly anticipated matchup between Rizespor and Samsunspor in the Turkey: Süper Lig is finely balanced, with both teams coming off wins in their last outings. Rizespor secured a 1-0 victory over Konyaspor, while Samsunspor thrashed Göztepe 3-0. The model predicts a home win for Rizespor, with a 41% chance of success, closely followed by a 33% chance of an away win and a 26% chance of a draw.
The expected total goals for this match is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%. Rizespor has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.71 goals per game against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.86 goals. Samsunspor, on the other hand, has averaged 1.25 goals when playing away against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.5 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with the following additional selections: Over 21.5 fouls (85.5%), Over 1.5 goals (82.9%), Home or Away (74.5%), and Home or Draw (71.5%).
Results analysis
The upset came as Rizespor, the pre-match favourite with a 41 % chance of victory, fell short, losing 0-2 to Samsunspor. The model’s call was wrong, but the selections it made all hit. Under 7.5 goals, hit with a 98.6 % probability; Away under 2.5 HT goals, hit at 98.0 %; Away under 2.5 2H goals, hit at 96.7 %; Home under 2.5 HT goals, hit at 96.6 %; Under 6.5 goals, hit at 96.2 %; Away under 3.5 goals, hit at 95.2 %; Home under 2.5 2H goals, hit at 94.7 %; and Over 19.5 fouls, hit at 92.8 %. Samsunspor’s win extended their recent form, while Rizespor left the pitch after a defeat. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the unexpected outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rizespor win✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.08
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.30
10Bet
2.28
Dafabet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.36
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
1xBet
3.43
Pinnacle
3.42
Samsunspor win✓ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.47
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.86
1xBet
3.78
Betfair
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Bet365
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rizespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.60
2.20
1.33
1.07
1.87
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.50
1.33
3.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.27
2.42
0.83
1.10
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.33
1.67
1.13
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
1.67
3.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.65
1.30
1.40
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.70
2.00
0.33
1.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
@ 1.25+8.9%
Under 1.5
16.2%
@ 3.73-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.83+10.1%
Under 2.5
38.1%
@ 1.96-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Bet365
2.00
SBO
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.6%
@ 3.01+8.5%
Under 3.5
60.4%
@ 1.36-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.5%
@ 1.65+8.1%
No
35.5%
@ 2.13-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
BetVictor
1.65
888Sport
1.65
No
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.15
10Bet
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Betano
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 6.10+4.1%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.94+3.1%
1-2
7.9%@ 10.88+3.7%
2-2
6.6%@ 11.90+2.8%
1-0
5.9%@ 7.64-0.0%
2-0
5.8%@ 10.13+1.4%
0-0
5.1%@ 10.03+0.6%
0-1
5.1%@ 10.38+0.8%
Rizespor goals ↓
Samsunspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.1%
4.7%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.9%
11%
7.9%
3.9%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.8%
6.6%
3.3%
1.3%
3
3.3%
4.9%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rizespor goals (down), columns = Samsunspor goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Rizespor is 0.29 points worse than Samsunspor in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Rizespor and Samsunspor are level in goals scored per game (both 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Rizespor is 0.21 goals worse than Samsunspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Rizespor is 4.4 percentage points worse than Samsunspor in terms of average possession (50% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rizespor
For 5.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Samsunspor
For 4.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rizespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.1
3.6
3.3
4.0
25.7
26.0
25.4
vs Stronger (13)
9.8
9.6
9.9
4.3
4.0
4.5
23.0
23.4
22.7
vs Similar (36)
9.0
9.2
8.7
3.4
3.2
3.7
27.0
27.4
26.7
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
% over line
50%
55%
45%
50%
44%
56%
80%
82%
77%
% under line
50%
45%
55%
50%
56%
44%
20%
18%
23%
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.5
4.2
4.0
4.3
26.2
27.0
25.3
vs Stronger (6)
8.7
9.3
8.0
5.0
4.7
5.3
26.3
26.0
26.7
vs Similar (28)
9.9
8.8
11.5
4.3
3.9
4.9
25.5
26.9
23.5
vs Weaker (16)
9.9
9.7
10.1
3.6
4.0
3.3
27.4
27.8
27.1
% over line
54%
50%
59%
54%
58%
50%
78%
83%
73%
% under line
46%
50%
41%
46%
42%
50%
22%
17%
27%
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.9
Beşiktaş
10.2
Samsunspor
9.9
Başakşehir
9.7
Konyaspor
9.7
Gaziantep FK
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.5
Trabzonspor
9.5
Rizespor
9.4
Çorum FK
9.2
Göztepe
9.2
Eyüpspor
9.1
Kasımpaşa
9.0
Amed
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Erzurumspor FK
8.4
Kocaelispor
8.2
Alanyaspor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.9
Fenerbahçe
5.7
Konyaspor
5.2
Çorum FK
5.2
Göztepe
5.1
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Alanyaspor
5.0
Beşiktaş
5.0
Amed
5.0
Eyüpspor
5.0
Başakşehir
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Samsunspor
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.6
Rizespor
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
29.0
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Kocaelispor
27.2
Alanyaspor
27.1
Başakşehir
26.8
Göztepe
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.3
Rizespor
26.1
Eyüpspor
26.0
Samsunspor
25.9
Fenerbahçe
25.4
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.3
Konyaspor
25.0
Galatasaray
23.8
Erzurumspor FK
23.6
Çorum FK
22.8
Amed
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.0%
@ 1.92-0.5%
Under 9.5
52.0%
@ 1.81+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.36+3.4%
Under 3.5
30.6%
@ 2.65-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Under
Superbet
2.65
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rizespor or Draw✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.3%
41%
25%
33%
covers Rizespor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.38
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Rizespor or Samsunspor✓ Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
+1.8%
41%
25%
33%
covers Rizespor + Samsunspor
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Draw or Samsunspor✓ Hit
54.0%
Avg Implied 54.5% · @ 1.72
Edge
-0.4%
41%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Samsunspor
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rizespor over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.6%
@ 1.20+5.1%
Under
17.4%
@ 4.13-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.23
Superbet
4.20
Rizespor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.2%
@ 1.99+5.2%
Under
47.8%
@ 1.76-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Rizespor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.6%
@ 4.10+2.8%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.21-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Rizespor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 9.43+0.1%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.10
1xBet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Samsunspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
@ 1.35+5.2%
Under
26.1%
@ 2.96-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Under
10Bet
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Samsunspor over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.75+4.9%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.41-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.00
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Betano
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.48
888Sport
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Samsunspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 6.86+1.7%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.08-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
BetVictor
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Samsunspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 17.38-0.8%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rizespor, so a minus line means Rizespor give that many goals of a start and Samsunspor receive them. At -1, Rizespor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rizespor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rizespor)Actual: Samsunspor
Rizespor -2
11.1%
@ 7.80-0.4%
Draw -2
14.2%
@ 5.83-1.1%
Samsunspor +2
74.7%
@ 1.22+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
10Bet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.60
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Rizespor)Actual: Samsunspor
Rizespor -1
25.3%
@ 3.74+1.3%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.77-3.2%
Samsunspor +1
54.0%
@ 1.72+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Bet365
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.60
Away
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Handicap +1 (Rizespor)Actual: Samsunspor
Rizespor +1
71.5%
@ 1.30+2.3%
Draw +1
15.6%
@ 5.00-2.4%
Samsunspor -1
12.9%
@ 7.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Rizespor)Actual: Draw
Rizespor +2
87.1%
@ 1.08+2.4%
Draw +2
8.4%
@ 9.25-1.5%
Samsunspor -2
4.5%
@ 17.00-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rizespor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
1.07
0.33
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
1.33
0.33
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.59
1.00
0.33
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.76
0.70
0.50
0.29
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.30
0.33
0.00
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.0%
@ 1.36+3.4%
Under 0.5
28.0%
@ 2.97-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.65+1.6%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.43-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 6.53-1.2%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.08+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rizespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 1.86+0.3%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.86-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Rizespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 5.24-0.5%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.12+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Rizespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 13.50-3.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Samsunspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.2%
@ 2.30+1.8%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.56-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Samsunspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 7.72+0.3%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.05-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Samsunspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 20.25-2.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rizespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.13
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.88
0.00
3.00
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.68
1.42
0.50
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.07
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
2.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.88
0.60
0.90
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
Under 0.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.7%
Under 1.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.9%
Under 2.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rizespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samsunspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samsunspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samsunspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.8%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
1.20
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.0%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
1.28
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.18
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.4%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
1.35
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.36
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.5%
1.29
10Bet
1.38
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.5%
1.30
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
+2.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rizespor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ali Sowe33%
Qazim Laci33%
Emrecan Bulut33%
Ahmed Kutucu0%
Attila Mocsi0%
Modibo Sagnan0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Dal Varešanović0%
Mithat Pala0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Attila Mocsi33%
Ali Sowe33%
Modibo Sagnan33%
Qazim Laci33%
Dal Varešanović33%
Mithat Pala33%
Ahmed Kutucu0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Emrecan Bulut0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mithat Pala33%
Emrecan Bulut33%
Ahmed Kutucu0%
Attila Mocsi0%
Ali Sowe0%
Modibo Sagnan0%
Qazim Laci0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Dal Varešanović0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmed Kutucu33%
Modibo Sagnan33%
Attila Mocsi0%
Ali Sowe0%
Qazim Laci0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Dal Varešanović0%
Mithat Pala0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Emrecan Bulut0%
Samsunspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Celil Yüksel33%
Fatih Kaya33%
Emre Kılınç33%
Josafat Mendes33%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Logi Tomasson33%
Toni Borevković33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Fatih Kaya0%
Emre Kılınç0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fatih Kaya33%
Josafat Mendes33%
Saikuba Jarju33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Emre Kılınç0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fatih Kaya33%
Emre Kılınç33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Rizespor's squad is €7m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€44m vs €50m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Rizespor's attack is €7m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€12m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Rizespor's midfield is €6m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€7m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Rizespor's defence is €6m more valuable than Samsunspor's (€25m vs €18m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Amed
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor