Roda’s recent five matches show a 2-game winning streak, yet they only average 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents. NAC Breda, on the other hand, has returned from a win but has struggled away, scoring only 0.6 goals and conceding 1.7 against comparable teams. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 40% probability, followed by a 32% chance of a home win and a 28% draw. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.4% chance. The model’s biggest divergence from the market is the 8% edge on the “Under 5.5” pick, which stands at 95% probability. Other suggested picks include “Under 7.5” at 99.5%, “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 98.4%, “Under 6.5” at 98.3%, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 98.0%, “Home under 3.5 goals” at 97.2%, “Home under 2.5 2H goals” at 97.1%, and “Away under 2.5 2H goals” at 95.5%.
Results analysis
Roda and NAC Breda both entered the match on a draw, their recent form reflecting a balanced struggle. The final score was 2-2, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick of an away win with a 41% probability - wrong. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. The model’s other picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Under 5.5 at 95.0%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.7%. All eight selections proved accurate, underscoring the model’s strength in low-scoring predictions even when the outcome itself surprised.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Roda win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.01
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.14
Dafabet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.52
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
1xBet
3.62
Marathonbet
3.62
Dafabet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
NAC Breda win✗ Miss
41.2%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.16
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Dafabet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Roda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.40
1.07
1.57
1.50
1.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.30
1.08
1.42
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.70
1.19
1.50
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
2.17
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.50
1.00
1.10
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
@ 1.19-2.1%
Under 1.5
23.7%
@ 4.31+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.44
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.64-6.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 2.19+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Under
Unibet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 2.57-7.6%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.46+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Under
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
@ 1.53-4.7%
No
44.3%
@ 2.34+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
No
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.38
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.61+6.7%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.20+3.5%
0-1
8.6%@ 9.10+3.8%
0-0
8.0%@ 12.37+4.4%
2-1
7.5%@ 9.87+3.0%
0-2
7.2%@ 11.35+3.3%
1-0
7.1%@ 10.94+3.0%
2-2 ✓
5.5%@ 10.96+1.4%
Roda goals ↓
NAC Breda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.6%
7.2%
3.5%
1.3%
1
7.1%
13%
8.9%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.1%
7.5%
5.5%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.1%
3.1%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Roda goals (down), columns = NAC Breda goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Roda is 0.08 points worse than NAC Breda in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Roda is 0.18 goals worse than NAC Breda in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Roda is 0.07 goals better than NAC Breda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Roda
For 4.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 16.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NAC Breda
For 7.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 13.7 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Roda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.0
9.0
2.9
3.4
2.4
24.9
24.3
25.6
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
10.0
14.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
21.2
20.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.8
11.0
8.5
2.8
3.4
2.3
25.3
24.7
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
67%
43%
36%
40%
32%
74%
67%
83%
% under line
45%
33%
57%
64%
60%
68%
26%
33%
17%
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.7
4.1
3.2
23.2
23.0
23.3
vs Stronger (18)
9.8
10.3
9.5
3.8
3.7
3.9
23.7
21.6
25.0
vs Similar (31)
9.8
9.6
10.2
3.7
4.3
2.8
22.9
23.6
21.8
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
52%
62%
42%
48%
62%
33%
64%
62%
67%
% under line
48%
38%
58%
52%
38%
67%
36%
38%
33%
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.9
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.8%
@ 1.58+3.4%
Under 9.5
38.2%
@ 2.22-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
76.2%
Under 21.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Roda or Draw✓ Hit
56.1%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
-0.9%
31%
28%
41%
covers Roda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Roda or NAC Breda✗ Miss
71.7%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.5%
31%
28%
41%
covers Roda + NAC Breda
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Draw or NAC Breda✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.35
Edge
+3.4%
31%
28%
41%
covers Draw + NAC Breda
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Roda over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
@ 1.26-5.6%
Under
32.3%
@ 3.47+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.59
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Roda over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.3%
@ 2.33-8.8%
Under
68.7%
@ 1.55+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Roda over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 5.28-6.9%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.12+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Roda over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 11.88-5.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
NAC Breda over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.2%
@ 1.17-2.0%
Under
22.8%
@ 4.44+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Under
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
NAC Breda over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.5%
@ 1.90-5.5%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.82+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Under
Unibet
1.93
Betfair
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
NAC Breda over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.6%
@ 3.86-5.5%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.22+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.01
BetVictor
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.98
Under
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
NAC Breda over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.20-5.1%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.06+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Betano
7.80
1xBet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Roda, so a minus line means Roda give that many goals of a start and NAC Breda receive them. At -1, Roda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Roda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Roda)Actual: NAC Breda
Roda -2
3.5%
@ 14.00-3.0%
Draw -2
8.0%
@ 8.93-2.2%
NAC Breda +2
88.5%
@ 1.09+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
7.80
Away
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Roda)Actual: NAC Breda
Roda -1
11.5%
@ 6.15-3.2%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 4.78-2.5%
NAC Breda +1
72.2%
@ 1.35+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Handicap +1 (Roda)Actual: Roda
Roda +1
56.1%
@ 1.65+1.7%
Draw +1
21.7%
@ 4.02-0.6%
NAC Breda -1
22.2%
@ 3.84-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Handicap +2 (Roda)Actual: Roda
Roda +2
77.8%
@ 1.21+3.4%
Draw +2
13.6%
@ 6.15-1.1%
NAC Breda -2
8.7%
@ 8.18-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Roda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.50
0.71
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.70
0.58
0.67
0.67
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.50
0.88
0.21
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.33
0.83
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.20
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.1%
@ 1.30-0.7%
Under 0.5
28.9%
@ 3.31+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.40-6.1%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.52+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.51
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 5.69-1.6%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Roda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.4%
@ 2.04-1.1%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.70+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Roda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.56-3.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.08+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Roda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.00-3.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.8%
@ 1.80-5.8%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.91+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.21-6.8%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.13+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 13.67-5.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Roda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.57
0.86
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.59
0.50
0.75
0.93
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.69
0.62
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.89
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.0%
@ 1.17+2.8%
Under 0.5
18.0%
@ 4.46-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Under
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.5%
@ 1.84-1.9%
Under 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.87+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.2%
@ 3.67-7.1%
Under 2.5
81.8%
@ 1.24+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Roda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.2%
@ 1.73-5.5%
Under
51.8%
@ 2.00+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Roda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 4.60-4.5%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.16+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Roda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.92-5.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.7%
@ 1.56-1.8%
Under
42.3%
@ 2.29+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.25
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 3.67-6.4%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.24+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 9.26-3.6%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.06
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.13
10Bet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.6%
1.17
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.21
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.4%
1.22
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.8%
1.21
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.2%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.3%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
1.33
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.2%
1.35
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
72.2%
1.35
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.46
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-0.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Roda
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marco Tol50%
Joshua Nisbet25%
Anthony van den Hurk25%
Lucas Beerten25%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Jerome Deom0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anthony van den Hurk50%
Jeremiah Mensah33%
Lucas Beerten25%
Koen Jansen25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mitchell Paulissen50%
Dyon Dorenbosch25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Anthony van den Hurk0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Lucas Beerten0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony van den Hurk50%
Joey Sleegers33%
Lucas Beerten25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
NAC Breda
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Gladon50%
Moussa Soumano50%
Pepijn Reulen50%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan Van den Bergh50%
Fredrik Jensen50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Maximilien Balard33%
Michael Verrips25%
Paul Gladon25%
Mohamed Nassoh25%
Pepijn Reulen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Rio Hillen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Seuntjens33%
Jannes Van Hecke33%
Boyd Lucassen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Paul Gladon0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Gladon50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Leo Greiml25%
Rio Hillen25%
Charles-Andreas Brym25%
Moussa Soumano25%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Roda's squad is €2m less valuable than NAC Breda's (€8m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Roda and NAC Breda have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Roda and NAC Breda have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Roda's defence is €2m less valuable than NAC Breda's (€2m vs €4m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht