This Russia: Premier League match on August 15th between Rodina Moskva and Akron is finely balanced, with Rodina Moskva coming off a win against Zenit, while Akron drew against Lokomotiv. The model's selection is the away win, with a 37% chance of success. The most likely match result is indeed the away win, with a 37% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability. Rodina Moskva's home form shows they score 1.67 goals and concede 1.67 goals per match against similar opponents. Akron's away form indicates they score 0.8 goals and concede 1.8 goals per match against similar opponents. The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (95.7%), Over 1.5 goals (76%), and Under 3.5 goals (71.9%), with a 5% edge for the latter. Rodina Moskva has a 35% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Akron drew 3-3 at Rodina Moskva, extending their run of consecutive draws to four. The match defied expectations, as the pre-match favourite, Rodina Moskva, failed to deliver, with the model correctly predicting an away win. The model's selection, Akron away, had a 37% chance of winning, while Rodina Moskva had a 35% chance of winning. The model's call was correct, but unfortunately, it did not come through. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks included Over 21.5 fouls, which hit, and Over 1.5, which also hit, both with high probabilities of 90.2% and 76.0% respectively. Under 3.5, however, missed the mark with a probability of 71.8%.
Advertisement
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Rodina Moskva winā Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.50
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.57
Pinnacle
2.52
Marathonbet
2.51
Dafabet
2.50
SBO
2.40
Drawā Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.48
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.62
Pinnacle
3.55
Marathonbet
3.54
Dafabet
3.50
SBO
3.21
Akron winā Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.72
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Dafabet
2.70
SBO
2.49
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Rodina Moskva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.90
1.79
0.64
1.75
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.00
2.00
0.86
1.75
1.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.62
1.57
0.43
2.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Akron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akron
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.97
1.00
2.07
1.00
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
2.33
0.83
2.17
1.33
2.50
vs Similar (18)
0.94
1.72
1.11
2.00
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
@ 1.21-1.1%
Under 1.5
24.0%
@ 4.06+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
1xBet
3.92
Marathonbet
3.92
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.74-5.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 2.15+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
SBO
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.19
SBO
2.16
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.2%
@ 2.68-6.6%
Under 3.5
71.8%
@ 1.42+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
@ 1.56-3.7%
No
44.3%
@ 2.29+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
No
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.21+6.4%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.55+3.8%
0-1
8.1%@ 9.96+3.7%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.02+3.2%
0-0
8.1%@ 13.01+4.7%
1-0
7.8%@ 9.42+3.1%
0-2
6.4%@ 14.48+3.3%
2-0
6.0%@ 13.16+2.6%
Rodina Moskva goals ↓
Akron goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.1%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.8%
14%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.1%
5.5%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.6%
3.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rodina Moskva goals (down), columns = Akron goals (across).
Advertisement
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Rodina Moskva is 0.17 points better than Akron in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.50).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Rodina Moskva is 0.33 goals better than Akron in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Rodina Moskva is 0.33 goals worse than Akron in terms of goals conceded per game (2.83 vs 2.50).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Rodina Moskva is 10.5 percentage points worse than Akron in terms of average possession (44% vs 54%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rodina Moskva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.20
0.93
0.14
1.31
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.13
0.86
0.14
1.50
0.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.15
1.00
0.14
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Akron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akron
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.47
1.20
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.50
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.28
1.00
0.44
1.22
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rodina Moskva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.86
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.87
1.14
0.71
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.46
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Akron) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akron
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.83
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.72
0.67
0.78
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
+5.8%
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
76.0%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-1.1%
ā Hit
Under 3.5
71.8%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
-
-
+6.6%
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Rodina Moskva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iker Pozo33%
Artur Gharibyan20%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Dyatlov50%
Andrey Egorychev33%
Dmitriy Tananeev33%
Iker Pozo33%
Ruslan Fishchenko20%
Yordy Reyna17%
Artem Meshchaninov17%
Ivan Timoshenko17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Artem Maksimenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Artur Gharibyan20%
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Iker Pozo17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Iker Pozo0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Akron
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gilson Tavares33%
Yomar Rocha20%
Kevin Arevalo20%
Stefan LonÄar17%
Arseniy Dmitriev17%
Kristijan BistroviÄ0%
Konstantin Maradishvili0%
Roberto FernƔndez0%
Joao Escoval0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Dudu0%
Nikita Bazilevskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristijan BistroviÄ50%
Joao Escoval40%
Arseniy Dmitriev33%
Dudu25%
Nikita Bazilevskiy25%
Roberto FernƔndez20%
Stefan LonÄar17%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin17%
Gilson Tavares17%
Konstantin Maradishvili0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Yomar Rocha0%
Kevin Arevalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dudu25%
Roberto FernƔndez20%
Konstantin Maradishvili17%
Stefan LonÄar17%
Gilson Tavares17%
Kristijan BistroviÄ0%
Joao Escoval0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Yomar Rocha0%
Arseniy Dmitriev0%
Nikita Bazilevskiy0%
Kevin Arevalo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefan LonÄar33%
Gilson Tavares33%
Kevin Arevalo20%
Kristijan BistroviÄ0%
Konstantin Maradishvili0%
Roberto FernƔndez0%
Joao Escoval0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Yomar Rocha0%
Dudu0%
Arseniy Dmitriev0%
Nikita Bazilevskiy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Rodina Moskva's squad is €8m less valuable than Akron's (€17m vs €25m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Rodina Moskva's attack is €4m less valuable than Akron's (€7m vs €11m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Rodina Moskva's midfield is €2m less valuable than Akron's (€3m vs €6m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Rodina Moskva's defence is €2m less valuable than Akron's (€7m vs €8m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Lokomotiv
Fakel