Rodina Moskva face Baltika with the model favouring an away win. The odds show a 49 % chance for the visitors, 27 % for a draw and 24 % for the hosts. The match is expected to see about 2.8 goals, with the most probable total of two goals occurring 25 % of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7 % probability. Rodina, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Baltika, on the road against a similar side, average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3 %), Over 19.5 fouls (96.9 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.9 %) and Under 5.5 (93.7 %).
Results analysis
Rodina Moskva’s recent run of three defeats left them vulnerable, while Baltika entered the match on a win, setting the stage for the model’s prediction of an away victory. The final score was 0-3, confirming the model’s call and the actual result of an away win. The model had given the away side a 49% chance, and the prediction was correct. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 97.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6%, and Under 5.5 at 93.7%. The model’s selections performed flawlessly.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rodina Moskva win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.81
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.04
Pinnacle
3.97
Marathonbet
3.94
Dafabet
3.80
Superbet
3.70
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.59
Pinnacle
3.51
Marathonbet
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Superbet
3.35
Baltika win✓ Hit
49.3%
Avg Implied 47.4% · @ 2.00
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.01
Dafabet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rodina Moskva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.10
1.80
1.07
1.73
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
-
-
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.12
2.00
1.44
2.00
0.71
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
0.73
1.50
0.50
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.87
1.29
0.88
1.08
0.85
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
0.80
0.80
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.50
0.78
1.45
0.82
1.57
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.28+5.1%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 3.39-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.56
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.99+4.1%
Under 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.86-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
SBO
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Under
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
SBO
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.2%
@ 3.35+2.4%
Under 3.5
69.8%
@ 1.29-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.66
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.24
Under
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
@ 1.77+3.0%
No
44.5%
@ 1.95-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
No
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.01+5.4%
1-2
9.6%@ 8.17+4.2%
0-1
9.3%@ 6.74+2.8%
0-2
8.7%@ 8.99+3.8%
0-0
7.4%@ 8.95+2.5%
2-1
6.4%@ 12.35+2.8%
1-0
5.8%@ 10.05+1.4%
1-3
5.3%@ 15.87+2.6%
Rodina Moskva goals ↓
Baltika goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
9.3%
8.7%
4.8%
2.0%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.8%
6.4%
5.3%
3.0%
1.2%
3
1.4%
2.4%
2.0%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rodina Moskva goals (down), columns = Baltika goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Rodina Moskva is 1.00 points worse than Baltika in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Rodina Moskva is 0.33 goals worse than Baltika in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Rodina Moskva is 1.83 goals worse than Baltika in terms of goals conceded per game (2.83 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Rodina Moskva is 8.0 percentage points better than Baltika in terms of average possession (44% vs 36%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rodina Moskva
For 2.4 · Against 8.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.4 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Baltika
For 3.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.3 · Against 10.3 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rodina Moskva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
8.5
12.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
26.6
32.0
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
12.3
-
12.3
3.7
-
3.7
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (28)
8.5
8.5
-
2.3
2.6
1.8
32.0
32.0
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
2.7
2.4
2.9
-
-
-
% over line
60%
50%
67%
36%
40%
32%
80%
100%
67%
% under line
40%
50%
33%
64%
60%
68%
20%
0%
33%
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.9
8.5
4.9
5.1
4.7
30.1
29.7
30.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.2
10.8
9.7
5.8
5.9
5.7
28.7
29.6
28.0
vs Similar (29)
7.4
6.9
7.9
4.5
4.8
4.1
30.0
29.7
30.4
vs Weaker (7)
7.2
6.5
8.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
33.8
30.0
37.5
% over line
36%
39%
33%
70%
72%
68%
94%
94%
94%
% under line
64%
61%
67%
30%
28%
32%
6%
6%
6%
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
10.8
CSKA Moscow
10.2
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
9.7
Zenit
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Akron
9.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
Lokomotiv
8.8
FC Krasnodar
8.6
Rubin
8.5
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.3
Baltika
4.9
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
Zenit
4.1
Fakel
4.1
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.1
Spartak Moscow
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
FC Rostov
28.9
Rubin
28.6
FC Orenburg
28.6
Akhmat
28.5
FC Krasnodar
28.3
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.7
Lokomotiv
27.5
Akron
27.5
Zenit
27.4
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Rodina Moskva
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
36.9%
@ 1.99-9.8%
Under 9.5
63.1%
@ 1.74+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.5%
Under 21.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rodina Moskva or Draw✗ Miss
50.7%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.83
Edge
-1.1%
24%
27%
49%
covers Rodina Moskva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.83
Superbet
1.76
Rodina Moskva or Baltika✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
+0.7%
24%
27%
49%
covers Rodina Moskva + Baltika
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.24
Draw or Baltika✓ Hit
75.9%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.4%
24%
27%
49%
covers Draw + Baltika
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.25
SBO
1.21
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.9%
@ 1.45+2.3%
Under
33.1%
@ 2.65-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.81
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.58
Marathonbet
2.58
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 3.18+0.7%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.34-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.35
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 8.50-0.8%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.04+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.70
Superbet
7.90
Under
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Rodina Moskva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 22.00-1.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Baltika over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.1%
@ 1.21+3.3%
Under
18.9%
@ 4.25-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.46
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Baltika over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.7%
@ 2.04+3.3%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.76-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.74
Baltika over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
23.4%
@ 4.25+1.5%
Under
76.6%
@ 1.19-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Superbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Baltika over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 9.77-0.6%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.02+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
9.40
Superbet
9.40
Under
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rodina Moskva, so a minus line means Rodina Moskva give that many goals of a start and Baltika receive them. At -1, Rodina Moskva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rodina Moskva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: Baltika
Rodina Moskva -2
2.9%
@ 18.00-2.1%
Draw -2
6.8%
@ 9.60-2.7%
Baltika +2
90.3%
@ 1.06+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
18.00
Draw
Superbet
9.60
Away
Superbet
1.06
Handicap -1 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: Baltika
Rodina Moskva -1
9.7%
@ 8.40-1.3%
Draw -1
14.4%
@ 5.45-2.5%
Baltika +1
75.9%
@ 1.28+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
8.40
Draw
Marathonbet
5.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap +1 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: Baltika
Rodina Moskva +1
50.7%
@ 1.82+1.2%
Draw +1
22.3%
@ 3.65-2.4%
Baltika -1
27.0%
@ 3.48+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.78
Draw
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.45
Handicap +2 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: Baltika
Rodina Moskva +2
73.0%
@ 1.25+1.4%
Draw +2
15.4%
@ 5.58-0.6%
Baltika -2
11.6%
@ 7.20-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw
Marathonbet
5.75
Superbet
5.40
Away
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
7.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rodina Moskva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.27
1.00
0.27
1.27
0.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
-
-
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.19
1.00
0.33
1.71
0.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
1.00
0.17
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.47
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.33
0.55
0.45
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.41+5.5%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 2.84-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 2.89+2.5%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.40-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Superbet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 7.03+1.7%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.06-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.70
Under
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.50+6.0%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.49-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Superbet
2.42
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 9.23+2.0%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.70
Superbet
8.30
Under
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 34.00-98.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.0%
@ 1.88+3.3%
Under
47.0%
@ 1.85-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Baltika over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 5.43+6.5%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.12-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.10
Under
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Baltika over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 16.00-2.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rodina Moskva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
-
-
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.94
1.00
1.11
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.33
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.82
0.41
0.46
0.54
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.44
0.91
0.36
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.24+5.4%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 3.77-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.78
Superbet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.7%
@ 2.16+4.0%
Under 1.5
52.3%
@ 1.68-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Under
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.4%
@ 4.63+3.3%
Under 2.5
76.6%
@ 1.16-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.7%
@ 2.04+3.3%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.70-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 6.53+2.5%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.07-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.20
Under
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 21.00-96.8%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.0%
@ 1.61+3.5%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.19-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Baltika over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.4%
@ 3.91+6.9%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.20-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Baltika over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 11.00-1.2%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.7%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.7%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.2%
1.02
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.3%
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.03
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.06
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.2%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.4%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.1%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
76.6%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
-
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.5%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-6.5%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.9%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.25
SBO
1.21
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.9%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.5%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
-
-
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.24
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
73.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-
-
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.41
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rodina Moskva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iker Pozo33%
Artur Gharibyan20%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Dyatlov50%
Andrey Egorychev33%
Dmitriy Tananeev33%
Iker Pozo33%
Ruslan Fishchenko20%
Yordy Reyna17%
Artem Meshchaninov17%
Ivan Timoshenko17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Artem Maksimenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Artur Gharibyan20%
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Iker Pozo17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Iker Pozo0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Baltika
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brayan Gil40%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor33%
Eldar Ćivić25%
Aymane Mourid20%
Andrey Mendel17%
Nikolay Titkov17%
Maksim Petrov17%
Sergey Varatynov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aymane Mourid60%
Mingiyan Beveev33%
Eduardo Anderson33%
Andrey Mendel33%
Nikolay Titkov33%
Maksim Petrov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor0%
Brayan Gil0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Sergey Varatynov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Gassama33%
Aymane Mourid20%
Nikolay Titkov17%
Maksim Petrov17%
Sergey Varatynov17%
Vladislav Pospelov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Andrey Mendel0%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor0%
Brayan Gil0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor50%
Aymane Mourid20%
Maksim Petrov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Andrey Mendel0%
Brayan Gil0%
Nikolay Titkov0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Sergey Varatynov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Rodina Moskva's squad is €13m less valuable than Baltika's (€17m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Rodina Moskva's attack is €3m less valuable than Baltika's (€7m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Rodina Moskva's midfield is €3m less valuable than Baltika's (€3m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Rodina Moskva's defence is €8m less valuable than Baltika's (€7m vs €15m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel