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Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-4
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
Vs
75%
16%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Russia: Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Rodina Moskva are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 75 % chance of a home win and picking that outcome as the most likely result. Their recent home form shows a solid average of 2.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against similarly strong opposition, while FC Orenburg’s away average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded indicates a weaker attack. The expected total goals for the match is 3.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Rodina, with a 10.5 % probability. The probability spread is 75 % for a home win, 16 % for a draw, and 9 % for an away win. The model’s suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8 % miss), Under 10.5 corners (98.2 %), Under 7.5 (97.3 % hit), Home +2 handicap (97.1 % miss), Under 9.5 corners (96.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.3 % miss), and Under 6.5 (93.4 % hit).

Results analysis

Rodina Moskva’s recent form, after two straight defeats, had fans hoping the home side could turn their fortunes, yet the cup clash delivered a shock. The pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 75 % probability, but the match ended 1-4 in favour of FC Orenburg, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 3.5 goals (98.8 %) missed, Under 7.5 (97.3 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (97.1 %) missed, Away under 2.5 goals (94.3 %) missed, and Under 6.5 (93.4 %) hit. The final score of 1-4 confirms the away side’s triumph and the upset that left the predicted outcome on the wrong side of the table.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rodina Moskva win✗ Miss
74.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg win✓ Hit
9.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L10W31W20W41W03L24L50W21W33DA·ROT22/04H·FC 26/04A·CHE02/05H·CHE08/05A·ARS16/05A·SPA25/07H·FC 31/07H·RUB04/08A·ZEN09/08H·AKR15/08← Premier LeagueCup →
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.871.870.801.870.93
vs Stronger (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (14)2.000.932.121.121.830.67
vs Weaker (14)1.860.641.570.432.140.86
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC OrenburgFC Orenburg

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W10W13L10W03L21W03L15L11D11DH·NIZ22/04A·FC 25/04A·FC 03/05H·KRY10/05A·FC 17/05H·FC 26/07H·ZEN02/08A·SPA05/08A·RUB09/08H·LOK14/08← Premier LeagueCup →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.631.081.150.532.00
vs Stronger (20)0.601.950.671.440.552.36
vs Similar (10)1.101.002.000.500.501.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
3-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
5.3%
Rodina Moskva goals ↓
FC Orenburg goals →
01234
03.7%1.9%1.1%0.3%0.1%
17.2%7.5%3.0%0.9%0.2%
210%9.1%3.9%1.1%0.2%
39.2%8.0%3.5%1.0%0.2%
46.1%5.3%2.3%0.7%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rodina Moskva goals (down), columns = FC Orenburg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
Luki-Energiya
2.00
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Lokomotiv
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Tver
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Akron
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Murom
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Rodina Moskva is 1.22 points better than FC Orenburg in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.78).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
Luki-Energiya
2.33
KDV
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Akhmat
1.33
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Akron
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Baltika
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Rodina Moskva is 0.72 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
KDV
1.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Enisey
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
Rodina Moskva is 2.56 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 2.56).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva

For 2.5 · Against 9.2 · Total 11.8

🚩 Corners

16015311294126141116H·AKRA·ZENH·FC A·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.2

🟨 Cards

401111321321121111243330321H·AKRA·ZENH·RUBH·FC A·SPAH·KAMA·ENIA·SPAH·FK A·VOL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.5

⚠️ Fouls

35016131291718141129213525H·AKRA·ZENH·FC A·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC OrenburgFC Orenburg

For 4.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.0

🚩 Corners

1606219523635351153710428810798816101410H·LOKA·RUBH·ZENH·FC A·FC H·KRYA·FC A·FC H·NIZH·LOK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

1002112331463124332333341046335H·LOKA·RUBA·SPAH·ZENH·FC A·FC H·KRYA·FC A·FC H·NIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 14.7 · Total 29.1

⚠️ Fouls

33012181413181113161671716131617141116132030272929233329312733H·LOKA·RUBH·ZENH·FC A·FC H·KRYA·FC A·FC H·NIZH·LOK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.88.515.02.42.32.527.532.023.0
vs Stronger (2)15.0-15.02.5-2.523.0-23.0
vs Similar (27)8.58.5-2.12.02.332.032.0-
vs Weaker (21)---2.82.92.7---
% over line75%50%100%34%36%32%75%100%50%
% under line25%50%0%66%64%68%25%0%50%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC OrenburgFC Orenburg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.210.34.65.24.028.330.426.0
vs Stronger (32)10.110.69.54.85.14.529.230.827.3
vs Similar (18)10.59.611.64.35.63.026.929.623.7
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line60%62%58%64%80%48%90%95%84%
% under line40%38%42%36%20%52%10%5%16%
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Rodina Moskva
11.8
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.4
FC Orenburg
10.2
Dynamo
10.1
Zenit
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Akhmat
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Veles
9.0
Ural
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
FC UFA
8.7
Rubin
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.4
Baltika
8.2
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
Tekstilshchik
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Fakel
4.4
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Veles
4.2
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Zenit
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Akron
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Rodina Moskva
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.6
FC Krasnodar
29.2
Akhmat
29.0
FC Rostov
28.9
Rubin
28.8
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Orenburg
28.3
Fakel
27.7
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Akron
27.4
Lokomotiv
27.4
Zenit
27.2
FC Sochi
27.1
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.9%
Under 9.5
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.6%
Under 21.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rodina Moskva or Draw✗ Miss
90.8%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Rodina Moskva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva or FC Orenburg✓ Hit
83.8%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Rodina Moskva + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Orenburg✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Draw + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.9%
Under
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Rodina Moskva, so a minus line means Rodina Moskva give that many goals of a start and FC Orenburg receive them. At -1, Rodina Moskva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rodina Moskva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva -2
33.0%
Draw -2
21.1%
FC Orenburg +2
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva -1
54.1%
Draw -1
20.5%
FC Orenburg +1
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva +1
90.8%
Draw +1
6.2%
FC Orenburg -1
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rodina Moskva)Actual: FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva +2
97.1%
Draw +2
2.3%
FC Orenburg -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D20W10W30W01L11D10W01L20WA·ROT22/04H·FC 26/04A·CHE02/05H·CHE08/05A·ARS16/05A·SPA25/07H·FC 31/07H·RUB04/08A·ZEN09/08H·AKR15/08← Premier LeagueCup →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.171.000.131.400.20
vs Stronger (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (14)1.290.071.000.121.670.00
vs Weaker (14)1.290.141.000.141.570.14
Clean sheet %83% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC OrenburgFC Orenburg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D02L10W01L00D01L02L00D01LH·NIZ22/04A·FC 25/04A·FC 03/05H·KRY10/05A·FC 17/05H·FC 26/07H·ZEN02/08A·SPA05/08A·RUB09/08H·LOK14/08← Premier LeagueCup →
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.670.380.620.120.71
vs Stronger (20)0.100.750.110.670.090.82
vs Similar (10)0.500.501.000.500.170.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W11D10W11D02L13L40W20W13LA·ROT22/04H·FC 26/04A·CHE02/05H·CHE08/05A·ARS16/05A·SPA25/07H·FC 31/07H·RUB04/08A·ZEN09/08H·AKR15/08← Premier LeagueCup →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.870.670.470.73
vs Stronger (2)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (14)0.710.861.121.000.170.67
vs Weaker (14)0.570.500.570.290.570.71
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC OrenburgFC Orenburg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W11D00D02L21W02L13L11D10WH·NIZ22/04A·FC 25/04A·FC 03/05H·KRY10/05A·FC 17/05H·FC 26/07H·ZEN02/08A·SPA05/08A·RUB09/08H·LOK14/08← Premier LeagueCup →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.970.690.540.411.29
vs Stronger (20)0.501.200.560.780.451.55
vs Similar (10)0.600.501.000.000.330.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 11.5 corners99.3%--------
Away under 3.5 goals98.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners98.2%--------
Under 7.597.3%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap97.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 9.5 corners96.1%--------
Away under 2.5 goals94.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 6.593.4%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals92.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 8.5 corners91.8%--------
Home or Draw90.8%-------✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap90.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards87.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.587.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls86.9%--------
Under 5.585.6%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away83.8%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals78.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls75.6%--------
Under 4.5 cards75.0%-------✗ Miss
Home win74.6%-------✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals74.1%-------✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals72.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.572.3%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rodina Moskva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iker Pozo40%
Artur Gharibyan25%
Artem Maksimenko20%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Dyatlov50%
Andrey Egorychev33%
Dmitriy Tananeev33%
Ruslan Fishchenko25%
Iker Pozo20%
Ivan Timoshenko20%
Stanislav Bessmertniy20%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Artem Maksimenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Artur Gharibyan25%
Soltmurad Bakaev20%
Artem Maksimenko20%
Iker Pozo20%
Stanislav Bessmertniy20%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soltmurad Bakaev20%
Artem Maksimenko20%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Iker Pozo0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrey Kasadzhikov40%
Emil Tsenov25%
Ruslan Kul20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Evgeniy Bolotov40%
Aleksey Tataev40%
Jhon Palacios40%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy20%
Ruslan Kul20%
Andrey Kasadzhikov20%
Maxime Sivis0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxime Sivis20%
Ruslan Kul20%
Andrey Kasadzhikov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexandre Jesus25%
Renat Golybin25%
Aleksey Tataev20%
Gedeon Guzina20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Andrey Kasadzhikov0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Rodina Moskva's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Orenburg's (€17m vs €18m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Rodina Moskva's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Orenburg's (€7m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Rodina Moskva and FC Orenburg have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Rodina Moskva and FC Orenburg have a similar defence value (both €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
RM wins
0
Draws
0
FO wins

Head-to-head

Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg · H/A from RM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26HRM Vs Akron3-3
09/08/26AZenit Vs RM1-2
04/08/26HRM Vs Rubin5-0
31/07/26HRM Vs FC Rostov2-4
25/07/26ASpartak Moscow Vs RM3-0
16/05/26AArsenal Tula Vs RM1-4
08/05/26HRM Vs Chelyabinsk2-0
02/05/26AChernomorets Vs RM1-3
26/04/26HRM Vs FC UFA1-0
22/04/26ARotor Volgograd Vs RM2-0

FC OrenburgFC Orenburg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/08/26HFO Vs Lokomotiv1-1
09/08/26ARubin Vs FO1-1
05/08/26ASpartak Moscow Vs FO5-1
02/08/26HFO Vs Zenit0-3
26/07/26HFO Vs FC Rostov2-1
17/05/26AFC Krasnodar Vs FO3-0
10/05/26HFO Vs Krylia Sovetov1-0
03/05/26AFC Sochi Vs FO3-1
25/04/26AFC Rostov Vs FO0-1
22/04/26HFO Vs Nizhny Novgorod2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
Russia: Cup
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD2.00
HomeWWLWD2.12
AwayLWWLW1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%60%56%
AVG goals2.762.962.56
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %50%44%56%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.822.081.56
Conceded0.940.881.00
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet42%52%32%
Corners11.758.5015.00
Cards3.333.223.44
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Russia: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD0.92
HomeWWWLD1.28
AwayWLLLD0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%32%12%
AVG goals2.742.522.96
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored0.961.160.76
Conceded1.781.362.20
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners10.2510.2410.26
Cards4.605.243.96

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar618
100%
3.0
114+7
2.5
50%
50%
33%
8.7
50%
4.5
83%
25.2
67%
114
3435451.80.7
57%
2Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow613
67%
2.2
115+6
2.7
100%
67%
0%
10.5
50%
6.5
83%
30.3
100%
129
5937341.80.8
62%
3ZenitZenit612
67%
2.0
134+9
2.8
83%
67%
17%
9.8
33%
5.0
83%
26.3
67%
182
10031502.20.7
60%
4CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow612
50%
2.0
96+3
2.5
67%
50%
33%
7.3
17%
3.8
33%
26.8
83%
111
3748261.51.0
57%
5BaltikaBaltika610
50%
1.7
106+4
2.7
100%
67%
0%
8.8
33%
3.5
33%
27.3
83%
30
106151.71.0
36%
6DynamoDynamo610
50%
1.7
87+1
2.5
67%
67%
33%
7.0
17%
4.4
80%
27.2
100%
110
4524421.31.2
63%
7RubinRubin69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
100%
50%
33%
7.7
17%
3.7
33%
24.3
67%
45
812251.51.3
47%
8Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala69
50%
1.5
1010+0
3.3
83%
83%
50%
9.5
67%
4.5
50%
23.7
67%
20
9381.71.7
40%
9FC OrenburgFC Orenburg67
17%
1.2
57-2
2.0
83%
33%
0%
8.5
33%
5.7
67%
30.7
100%
18
8370.81.2
39%
10AkhmatAkhmat66
17%
1.0
98+1
2.8
67%
50%
33%
7.8
17%
3.8
50%
25.5
83%
30
17491.51.3
47%
11Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov66
17%
1.0
810-2
3.0
83%
50%
33%
8.5
17%
5.0
60%
27.3
83%
26
96111.31.7
46%
12FC RostovFC Rostov65
17%
0.8
710-3
2.8
67%
50%
33%
7.7
33%
4.5
33%
27.7
83%
32
145131.21.7
49%
13Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva64
17%
0.7
817-9
4.2
100%
100%
50%
10.2
50%
3.8
33%
28.2
83%
17
7371.32.8
44%
14LokomotivLokomotiv63
0%
0.5
58-3
2.2
67%
33%
17%
7.0
17%
3.5
33%
27.2
83%
68
218400.81.3
51%
15AkronAkron63
0%
0.5
615-9
3.5
83%
83%
50%
8.5
17%
4.7
67%
26.7
67%
25
11681.02.5
54%
16FakelFakel62
0%
0.3
37-4
1.7
33%
33%
17%
9.8
67%
3.7
67%
25.3
83%
14
5270.51.2
48%
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →

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