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Rogaška vs Mura Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-2
Rogaška
Rogaška
Vs
39%
29%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rogaška win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura win✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-524L10W20W02L05L02L22D03L11D21WA·PRI03/05H·KRK12/05A·KRŠ19/05A·BRA22/07A·OLI29/07A·CEL13/08H·MAR20/08A·KOP26/08H·RAD03/09A·ALU16/09← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.101.861.001.381.19
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.381.561.571.291.221.78
vs Weaker (13)2.000.462.140.711.830.17
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L42W21W23L05L31W02L10W13L11DA·MAR02/05H·GOR13/05A·KOP20/05H·NK 22/07A·CEL30/07A·KOP14/08H·RAD19/08A·ALU25/08H·OLI03/09H·BRA16/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.371.271.471.071.27
vs Stronger (13)1.082.001.201.801.002.12
vs Similar (17)1.240.881.301.301.140.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.6%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
7.0%
0-2 ✓
5.5%
Rogaška goals ↓
Mura goals →
01234
08.6%7.8%5.5%2.3%0.7%
18.9%14%7.7%3.1%1.0%
27.0%8.6%5.3%2.2%0.7%
33.2%4.0%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.1%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rogaška goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Rogaška is 0.11 points worse than Mura in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Rogaška is 0.06 goals worse than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Rogaška is 0.19 goals worse than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

RogaškaRogaška

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MuraMura

For 5.3 · Against 6.7 · Total 12.0

🚩 Corners

21054384845492491254106779111291362191614H·BRAH·OLIA·ALUA·KOPA·CELH·NK A·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

60113123111142323312412452265635H·BRAH·OLIA·ALUA·KOPA·CELH·NK A·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.5

⚠️ Fouls

3508151411111012131015141611142114109111623252125253025351927H·BRAH·OLIA·ALUA·KOPA·CELH·NK A·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RogaškaRogaška

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (37)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (1)---0.0-0.0---
vs Similar (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (16)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (47)10.79.911.52.93.22.526.026.425.7
vs Stronger (19)11.612.011.43.32.73.825.726.425.4
vs Similar (28)10.08.911.72.63.61.526.326.326.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line61%50%71%40%50%30%90%93%87%
% under line39%50%29%60%50%70%10%7%13%
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.7
Aluminij
10.4
Celje
9.9
Koper
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.6
Maribor
9.2
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
5.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Mura
4.4
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.8
Aluminij
27.2
Bravo
26.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.6
Mura
26.0
Maribor
25.5
Koper
24.3
Celje
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.2%
Under 9.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.3%
Under 21.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RogaškaRogaška

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W00D10W01L02L00D01L11D20WH·BIL28/04A·PRI03/05H·KRK12/05A·KRŠ19/05A·BRA22/07A·OLI29/07A·CEL13/08H·MAR20/08H·RAD03/09A·ALU16/09← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.500.930.730.870.27
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (15)0.730.730.711.000.750.50
vs Weaker (14)1.140.291.120.501.170.00
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MuraMura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L12L01L21W02L10W02L10W11D10WA·MAR02/05H·GOR13/05A·KOP20/05H·NK 22/07A·CEL30/07A·KOP14/08H·RAD19/08A·ALU25/08H·OLI03/09H·BRA16/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.730.870.530.60
vs Stronger (13)0.621.001.000.800.381.12
vs Similar (17)0.650.530.600.900.710.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RogaškaRogaška

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L10W10W01L03L02L21W00D01LH·BIL28/04A·PRI03/05H·KRK12/05A·KRŠ19/05A·BRA22/07A·OLI29/07A·CEL13/08H·MAR20/08H·RAD03/09A·ALU16/09← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.531.000.270.600.80
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (15)0.730.730.860.290.621.12
vs Weaker (14)0.930.211.120.250.670.17
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MuraMura

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W20W02L03L21W00D00D02L01LA·MAR02/05H·GOR13/05A·KOP20/05H·NK 22/07A·CEL30/07A·KOP14/08H·RAD19/08A·ALU25/08H·OLI03/09H·BRA16/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.530.600.530.67
vs Stronger (13)0.461.000.201.000.621.00
vs Similar (17)0.590.350.700.400.430.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls88.6%--------
Under 5.5 cards78.7%--------
Over 21.5 fouls78.3%--------
Over 2.5 cards76.0%--------
Over 8.5 corners75.3%--------
Over 1.574.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ROG wins
0
Draws
0
MUR wins

Head-to-head

Rogaška vs Mura · H/A from ROG
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23AAluminij Vs ROG1-2
03/09/23HROG Vs Radomlje1-1
26/08/23AKoper Vs ROG3-0
20/08/23HROG Vs Maribor2-2
13/08/23ACelje Vs ROG2-0
29/07/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs ROG5-0
22/07/23ABravo Vs ROG2-0
19/05/23AKrško Vs ROG0-2
12/05/23HROG Vs Krka1-0
03/05/23APrimorje Vs ROG4-2

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23HMUR Vs Bravo1-1
03/09/23HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-3
25/08/23AAluminij Vs MUR0-1
19/08/23HMUR Vs Radomlje0-2
14/08/23AKoper Vs MUR1-3
30/07/23ACelje Vs MUR5-0
22/07/23HMUR Vs NK Domzale2-3
20/05/23AKoper Vs MUR1-2
13/05/23HMUR Vs Gorica4-2
02/05/23AMaribor Vs MUR3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDW1.97
HomeDWWDD1.88
AwayLLLLW2.05
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %59%53%65%
AVG goals2.593.002.25
Over 1.5 %73%76%70%
Over 2.5 %43%53%35%
Over 3.5 %24%41%10%
Scored1.541.881.25
Conceded1.051.121.00
BTTS38%53%25%
Clean Sheet43%29%55%
Corners---
Cards---
Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.43
HomeWLLLD1.46
AwayLWLWW1.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%30%
AVG goals2.682.962.39
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %53%58%48%
Over 3.5 %32%33%30%
Scored1.341.541.13
Conceded1.341.421.26
BTTS57%62%52%
Clean Sheet28%17%39%
Corners10.739.8811.53
Cards4.354.883.80

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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