Rosenborg are the clear favorites, with a 58 % chance of triumph, a 25 % draw probability and a 17 % chance of a Fredrikstad win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the model’s most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.8 % chance. Rosenborg, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, typically scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.38, while Fredrikstad, on the road, averages 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 82.7 %, Under 5.5 cards at 81.5 %, Over 1.5 goals at 77.1 %, Over 8.5 corners at 76.3 %, Over 2.5 cards at 73.2 % (miss), and Under 3.5 at 70.3 % (miss). This game, with Rosenborg on a two-game winning streak after a 2-1 win over Viking, should see the home side prevail.
Results analysis
Rosenborg extended their two-game winning run with a decisive 4-0 victory over Fredrikstad, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of a home win at 58 %. The prediction of a 4-0 scoreline was not among the suggested totals, yet the actual result matched the model’s confidence in a home triumph. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 19.5 fouls at 82.7 % hit, Under 5.5 cards at 81.5 % hit, Over 1.5 goals at 77.1 % hit, and Over 8.5 corners at 76.3 % hit. However, Over 2.5 cards at 73.2 % missed, and Under 3.5 at 70.3 % also missed. Overall, the model’s call and most of its picks proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rosenborg win✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad win✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rosenborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.63
1.93
1.29
1.19
1.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.62
1.50
1.38
0.88
1.88
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
1.50
3.00
1.00
1.83
1.83
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.38
1.15
1.06
1.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.75
0.33
1.00
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.50
1.67
1.11
1.44
1.89
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
2.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-0
10.8%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
4.9%
Rosenborg goals ↓
Fredrikstad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.6%
6.0%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rosenborg goals (down), columns = Fredrikstad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.41
Viking
2.35
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.59
Lillestrom
1.53
Brann
1.47
Rosenborg
1.41
Fredrikstad
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.29
Valerenga
1.24
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Sandefjord
1.06
Aalesund
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Start
0.59
Rosenborg is 0.06 points better than Fredrikstad in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.53
Viking
2.35
Brann
2.12
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.88
Valerenga
1.65
Aalesund
1.59
Rosenborg
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.41
Lillestrom
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.18
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.06
Start
0.94
Sandefjord
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Rosenborg is 0.41 goals better than Fredrikstad in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.71
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.18
Lillestrom
1.24
Rosenborg
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35
Sandefjord
1.35
Molde
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.59
Fredrikstad
1.59
Kristiansund BK
1.59
Brann
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.76
Valerenga
2.00
Start
2.24
Aalesund
2.41
Rosenborg is 0.29 goals better than Fredrikstad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Rosenborg is 4.7 percentage points better than Fredrikstad in terms of average possession (52% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rosenborg
For 5.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 15.2 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fredrikstad
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rosenborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
12.2
9.8
3.2
3.3
3.2
24.4
24.3
24.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.7
10.3
11.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
25.5
23.3
27.7
vs Similar (26)
11.0
13.0
9.1
3.3
3.6
3.1
25.0
25.9
24.1
vs Weaker (18)
11.3
12.0
10.3
2.7
2.8
2.6
23.2
22.6
24.0
% over line
66%
81%
50%
48%
50%
46%
66%
62%
70%
% under line
34%
19%
50%
52%
50%
54%
34%
38%
30%
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.2
10.2
2.8
3.1
2.6
20.9
20.1
21.5
vs Stronger (12)
9.6
8.2
10.5
2.9
3.6
2.4
18.7
19.5
18.2
vs Similar (30)
10.0
9.9
10.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
22.0
19.8
24.2
vs Weaker (8)
9.0
7.3
10.2
2.2
2.7
2.0
20.0
22.3
18.2
% over line
60%
50%
68%
32%
32%
32%
40%
30%
50%
% under line
40%
50%
32%
68%
68%
68%
60%
70%
50%
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
11.8
Viking
11.6
Aalesund
11.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Rosenborg
11.0
Sandefjord
10.9
Brann
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.7
Ham-Kam
10.5
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Lillestrom
10.2
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.6
Tromso
9.2
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Start
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.3
Molde
4.3
Brann
4.1
Valerenga
4.0
Rosenborg
4.0
Lillestrom
3.9
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Start
3.7
Sandefjord
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.3
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
24.9
Viking
24.7
Start
24.3
Brann
24.2
Rosenborg
23.8
Valerenga
23.5
Molde
23.2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.8
Tromso
22.8
Ham-Kam
22.3
Kristiansund BK
22.1
Lillestrom
21.7
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Aalesund
21.4
Fredrikstad
20.8
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.3%
Under 9.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rosenborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.86
0.64
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
1.06
0.75
0.75
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.25
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.77
0.69
0.35
0.76
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.88
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.72
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rosenborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rosenborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.07
0.64
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
1.00
1.75
0.75
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.62
0.46
0.71
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.33
0.67
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.44
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rosenborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (25)
€45m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (24)
€25m
ROS (20)
€18m
S0F (24)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
VAL (19)
€14m
AAL (24)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (22)
€11m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Rosenborg's squad is €2m more valuable than Fredrikstad's (€18m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (9)
€20m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (9)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
ROS (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
AAL (6)
€5m
SAN (7)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Rosenborg's attack is €1m more valuable than Fredrikstad's (€6m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Rosenborg and Fredrikstad have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
MOL (11)
€15m
VIK (11)
€13m
BRA (11)
€9m
ROS (10)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
VAL (6)
€3m
Rosenborg and Fredrikstad have a similar defence value (both €8m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →