The contest between Ross County and Dunfermline is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Home advantage is modest: Ross County averages 1.78 goals for and 0.56 against at home against similarly-matched opposition, while Dunfermline, on the road, scores 1.09 and concedes 1.18. The expected total is 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. The probabilities for the match result are 39% home win, 31% draw and 30% away win. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 81.8%, Under 3.5 goals at 80.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.5% and Under 11.5 corners at 70.3%. Ross County are on a five-game winning streak, having beaten East Kilbride 4-0, while Dunfermline return from a win over Raith Rovers 1-0. The match promises a tightly contested affair with both sides capable of breaking the deadlock.
Results analysis
Ross County’s 5-game winning streak continued as they edged Dunfermline 2-1, confirming the model’s favourite outcome. The prediction of a home win, assigned a 39% probability, proved accurate. The model’s selection of Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Under 3.5, Under 25.5 fouls, Over 2.5 cards, and Over 19.5 fouls, each with probabilities of 81.8%, 80.1%, 74.8%, 72.8%, and 72.5% respectively. The only miss was Under 11.5 corners, which fell short despite a 70.3% chance. Ross County’s strong home form, averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.56 conceded, contrasted with Dunfermline’s away average of 1.09 scored and 1.18 conceded, underscoring the model’s correct assessment.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ross County win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ross County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.23
1.50
0.93
1.38
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
1.25
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.04
1.78
0.56
1.43
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.07
0.87
1.33
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
1.05
0.64
0.91
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
0.88
2.25
0.75
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.3%
2-1 ✓
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
Ross County goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.8%
8.2%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ross County goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ross County
1.97
Dundee Utd
1.81
Inverness CT
1.56
Ayr
1.50
Morton
1.28
Partick
1.19
Dunfermline
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.06
Ross County is 0.83 points better than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ross County
1.75
Ayr
1.39
Dundee Utd
1.36
Inverness CT
1.33
Partick
1.19
Queen of Sth
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.03
Morton
1.00
Dunfermline
0.92
Ross County is 0.83 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ross County
0.94
Ayr
1.06
Inverness CT
1.11
Dunfermline
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.11
Morton
1.25
Queen of Sth
1.33
Falkirk
1.36
Partick
1.44
Alloa
1.47
Ross County is 0.17 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ross County
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
For 6.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ross County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.5
3.6
3.8
3.4
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Stronger (15)
10.5
11.0
9.7
3.5
3.8
3.2
24.3
24.6
24.0
vs Similar (33)
9.6
9.9
9.3
3.7
4.0
3.4
23.8
23.6
23.9
vs Weaker (2)
11.5
11.0
12.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
28.5
26.0
31.0
% over line
56%
56%
56%
54%
52%
56%
64%
68%
60%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
46%
48%
44%
36%
32%
40%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.9
10.1
3.9
3.6
4.2
22.7
22.0
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.0
10.3
9.7
4.1
3.8
4.5
22.6
21.9
23.4
vs Weaker (14)
9.9
8.9
11.0
3.2
3.1
3.3
22.7
22.3
23.1
% over line
61%
60%
62%
56%
52%
60%
63%
60%
67%
% under line
39%
40%
38%
44%
48%
40%
37%
40%
33%
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
11.1
Dundee Utd
10.6
Inverness CT
10.3
Ayr
10.3
Alloa
10.1
Dunfermline
10.0
Falkirk
10.0
Ross County
9.9
Partick
9.9
Queen of Sth
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
4.3
Inverness CT
4.0
Dunfermline
4.0
Ross County
3.6
Ayr
3.6
Falkirk
3.6
Morton
3.4
Queen of Sth
3.4
Alloa
3.1
Partick
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ross County
24.1
Morton
22.8
Inverness CT
22.7
Dundee Utd
22.7
Dunfermline
22.7
Alloa
22.3
Falkirk
21.6
Queen of Sth
21.5
Ayr
21.4
Partick
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.5%
Under 9.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.5%
Under 21.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ross County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.57
0.36
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.43
0.78
0.11
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.67
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.41
0.36
0.36
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.38
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ross County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.93
0.57
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.61
1.00
0.44
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.64
0.27
0.55
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ross County · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronan Hale31%
Jordan White16%
Kieran Phillips12%
Akil Wright11%
Noah Chilvers10%
Alex Samuel9%
Joshua Nisbet8%
Michee Efete5%
George Harmon4%
Elijah Campbell4%
Connor Randall3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kacper Łopata0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Nohan Kenneh0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Randall30%
Elijah Campbell21%
Kacper Łopata20%
Zachary Ashworth20%
Ryan Leak19%
James Brown19%
Victor Loturi18%
Michee Efete15%
Noah Chilvers13%
Nohan Kenneh13%
Akil Wright13%
Ronan Hale11%
George Harmon9%
Jordan White8%
Jonathan Tomkinson8%
Jack Grieves5%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Noah Chilvers17%
Kieran Phillips12%
Zachary Ashworth10%
Jack Grieves9%
George Harmon9%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Aidan Denholm7%
Joshua Nisbet6%
Alex Samuel5%
Kacper Łopata3%
Akil Wright3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Jordan White0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Michee Efete0%
Connor Randall0%
Ronan Hale0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Hale36%
Noah Chilvers10%
Michee Efete10%
Jordan White8%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Akil Wright0%
Connor Randall0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Kacper Łopata0%
George Harmon0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Ross County's squad is €3m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Ross County's attack is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Ross County and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Ross County's defence is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €2m).
Scotland: Championship 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Dundee Utd
Inverness CT
Morton
Partick
Falkirk