Hibernian are tipped to win this encounter, with a 54% chance of victory versus Ross County’s 21% home win probability and a 25% draw likelihood. The model expects a modest 2.9-goal affair, most likely producing a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12% chance. Ross County, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Hibernian, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 80.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.4% (miss), and Over 8.5 corners at 73.1%. The match is set for a 1-1 outcome, with Hibernian’s recent win and Ross County’s five-game winning streak adding intrigue.
Results analysis
Ross County finished 1-1 against Hibernian (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 21% home win, 25% draw and 54% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%), Under 5.5 cards (78%), Over 8.5 corners (73%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (81%), Over 2.5 cards (76%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ross County win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✗ Miss
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ross County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.77
1.40
1.67
0.87
1.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.08
0.86
2.00
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.53
1.88
1.38
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.03
1.60
1.13
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.60
1.50
2.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.89
1.50
0.67
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.94
1.71
1.29
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
9.3%
0-0
6.8%
1-3
6.0%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.7%
Ross County goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
9.3%
9.4%
5.7%
2.6%
1
4.9%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.7%
2
3.1%
5.7%
5.1%
3.1%
1.4%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ross County goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Aberdeen
1.92
Rangers
1.84
Hibernian
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.55
Heart Of Midlothian
1.29
Motherwell
1.26
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee
1.03
Partick
0.87
Hamilton
0.87
Ross County
0.76
Ross County is 1.00 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Hibernian
1.63
Aberdeen
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.29
Hamilton
1.24
Motherwell
1.13
ST Johnstone
1.11
Ross County
1.05
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Dundee
0.95
Partick
0.82
Ross County is 0.58 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.66
Aberdeen
0.97
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hibernian
1.21
Kilmarnock
1.24
Motherwell
1.29
Rangers
1.32
ST Johnstone
1.39
Dundee
1.50
Partick
1.61
Ross County
1.63
Hamilton
1.79
Ross County is 0.42 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ross County
For 4.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 5.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.9 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ross County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
3.7
4.0
3.4
24.1
24.8
23.4
vs Stronger (18)
9.8
10.1
9.6
3.7
4.2
3.2
25.5
25.6
25.4
vs Similar (29)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.7
3.9
3.6
23.1
24.4
22.1
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
12.5
11.0
3.0
3.5
2.0
25.0
24.5
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
50%
54%
46%
68%
79%
58%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
50%
46%
54%
32%
21%
42%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.1
11.8
2.9
3.0
2.8
25.1
27.2
22.9
vs Stronger (6)
8.0
6.5
8.8
5.7
4.0
6.5
26.0
29.0
24.5
vs Similar (15)
8.7
8.7
8.7
2.2
3.0
1.0
26.2
27.3
24.0
vs Weaker (29)
13.1
12.0
14.1
2.6
2.8
2.5
24.2
26.8
21.9
% over line
56%
38%
75%
44%
48%
40%
78%
88%
69%
% under line
44%
62%
25%
56%
52%
60%
22%
12%
31%
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.4
Hamilton
11.1
Hibernian
10.9
Rangers
10.9
Kilmarnock
10.7
Motherwell
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.3
Ross County
10.0
Aberdeen
9.9
Heart Of Midlothian
9.7
Celtic
9.6
Partick
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hibernian
4.5
Rangers
4.2
Hamilton
4.1
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Dundee
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.8
Aberdeen
3.7
Ross County
3.7
Celtic
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
Partick
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.6
Motherwell
25.3
Hibernian
25.1
Hamilton
25.1
Rangers
25.0
Dundee
24.5
Ross County
24.1
Aberdeen
24.0
Kilmarnock
23.9
ST Johnstone
22.7
Celtic
22.1
Partick
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.5%
Under 9.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.9%
Under 3.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
66.8%
Under 21.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ross County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.14
1.14
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.53
1.00
0.38
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.17
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.31
0.57
0.57
0.78
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ross County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.80
0.93
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.08
0.71
0.86
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.00
0.88
1.00
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.07
0.67
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.62
1.14
0.71
0.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ross County · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronan Hale31%
Jordan White16%
Kieran Phillips12%
Akil Wright11%
Noah Chilvers10%
Alex Samuel9%
Joshua Nisbet8%
Michee Efete5%
George Harmon4%
Elijah Campbell4%
Connor Randall3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kacper Łopata0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Nohan Kenneh0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Randall30%
Elijah Campbell21%
Kacper Łopata20%
Zachary Ashworth20%
Ryan Leak19%
James Brown19%
Victor Loturi18%
Michee Efete15%
Noah Chilvers13%
Nohan Kenneh13%
Akil Wright13%
Ronan Hale11%
George Harmon9%
Jordan White8%
Jonathan Tomkinson8%
Jack Grieves5%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Noah Chilvers17%
Kieran Phillips12%
Zachary Ashworth10%
Jack Grieves9%
George Harmon9%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Aidan Denholm7%
Joshua Nisbet6%
Alex Samuel5%
Kacper Łopata3%
Akil Wright3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Jordan White0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Michee Efete0%
Connor Randall0%
Ronan Hale0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Hale36%
Noah Chilvers10%
Michee Efete10%
Jordan White8%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Akil Wright0%
Connor Randall0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Kacper Łopata0%
George Harmon0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
Ross County's squad is €19m less valuable than Hibernian's (€1m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Ross County's attack is €7m less valuable than Hibernian's (€0m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Ross County's midfield is €7m less valuable than Hibernian's (€0m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Ross County's defence is €4m less valuable than Hibernian's (€1m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Aberdeen
Rangers
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
ST Johnstone
Dundee
Partick