Rotor Volgograd, coming off a defeat, hosts Chelyabinsk, who are coming off a win. The model's most likely scoreline is a 1-0 home win for Rotor Volgograd, with a probability of 18.1%. The expected total number of goals is 2.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. Rotor Volgograd's home form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.8. Chelyabinsk's away form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 0.36 goals and conceding 1.0.
The model's favoured match result is a home win, with a probability of 54%. The probabilities for a draw and an away win are 30% and 15%, respectively. The home win percentage is 54%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 15%. The model's selection is the home win, with a home win percentage of 54%.
The model also suggests selecting Under 9.5 corners (100% probability, 43% edge), Under 21.5 fouls (100% probability), and Under 3.5 (86.5% probability, 8% edge).
The win extends Rotor Volgograd's run, having come off a win and now having beaten Chelyabinsk 4-1. The actual result was a home win, matching the model's call, which was correct. The model had predicted a low-scoring match, but the final score was well clear of the expected 2 goals. The model's selection, a home win, had a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's selection was correct. The model also suggested an under 3.5 total, which had a probability of 86.5%, but this missed, as the actual total was 5 goals.
Rotor Volgograd| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.54 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Chelyabinsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 1.36 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 1.36 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Chelyabinsk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 15% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 18% | 13% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rotor Volgograd
Chelyabinsk
Rotor Volgograd| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 28.5 | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (40) | 11.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 28.5 | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 3.3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 100% | 0% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 0% | 100% | 62% | 61% | 63% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Chelyabinsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (42) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 33% | 38% | 29% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 67% | 62% | 71% | - | - | - |
Rotor Volgograd| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Chelyabinsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Rotor Volgograd| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1.15 | 0.23 | 0.47 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.69 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.25 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Chelyabinsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 86.5% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | +8.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.2% | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | - | - | - | -2.9% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/07/25 | A | 1-0 |
Rotor Volgograd| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 20/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-0 |
Chelyabinsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |