Rotor Volgograd’s defensive record at home, conceding just 0.75 goals on average, contrasts with FK Neftekhimik’s away average of 1.15 conceded, suggesting a tight contest. The model favours a home win, with a 41% chance, followed by a 36% draw and 23% away win. The average goal expectation sits at 1.7, but the most probable total is a single goal, a 29% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 0-0, carrying a 20% probability. Rotor’s home form shows 0.88 goals scored per match against similar opposition, while Neftekhimik’s away form yields 0.69 goals scored. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with 91.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 87.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.9%, Under 2.5 at 76.3%, and Under 4.5 cards at 74.9%. Each selection is presented with its probability, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
Rotor Volgograd’s win extended their recent run, ending a string of two straight defeats with a 1-0 triumph over FK Neftekhimik. The model’s favourite was a home win, given a 41% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The final score of 1-0 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s call. The model’s selections also performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit at 91%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 87.4%, Under 2.5 hit at 76.3%, and Under 4.5 cards hit at 74.9%. All outcomes aligned with the model’s probabilities, underscoring its accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rotor Volgograd win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rotor Volgograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
0.80
0.78
0.67
0.91
0.91
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.87
0.88
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.04
0.92
0.92
0.69
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (29%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.7%
Under 2.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.0%
Under 3.5
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
32.5%
No
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
20.0%
1-0 ✓
17.3%
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.5%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
6.3%
0-2
4.4%
1-2
4.3%
Rotor Volgograd goals ↓
FK Neftekhimik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
20%
12%
4.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
2
9.2%
6.3%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
3
3.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rotor Volgograd goals (down), columns = FK Neftekhimik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Rotor Volgograd is 0.26 points better than FK Neftekhimik in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Rotor Volgograd is 0.03 goals better than FK Neftekhimik in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Rotor Volgograd is 0.32 goals better than FK Neftekhimik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rotor Volgograd
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Neftekhimik
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rotor Volgograd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (20)
-
-
-
1.6
1.9
1.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
-
-
-
1.7
2.1
1.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
1.2
0.0
1.5
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
15%
22%
9%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
85%
78%
91%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
7.8
9.7
2.5
2.0
3.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
8.0
8.0
-
1.6
1.3
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
9.0
7.7
9.7
2.6
2.1
3.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
20%
0%
33%
28%
24%
32%
-
-
-
% under line
80%
100%
67%
72%
76%
68%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11.5
Arsenal Tula
10.7
Ural
10.6
Baltika
10.2
FK Neftekhimik
9.9
Chernomorets
9.9
Enisey
9.7
FC Sochi
9.4
FK Sokol Saratov
9.1
KAMAZ
9.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.8
Rodina Moskva
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
5.2
FC UFA
4.8
Rodina Moskva
4.0
Ural
4.0
Torpedo Moskva
3.9
Enisey
3.9
Tyumen
3.7
FC Sochi
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Baltika
3.6
FK Neftekhimik
3.6
Chernomorets
3.6
Chayka
3.4
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.3
Arsenal Tula
3.1
Rotor Volgograd
2.9
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.9
FK Sokol Saratov
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Ural
23.0
Baltika
22.3
FC Sochi
21.9
Torpedo Moskva
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.7%
Under 9.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rotor Volgograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.35
0.33
0.44
0.64
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.40
0.38
0.50
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
65% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.33
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.42
0.38
0.38
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rotor Volgograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.35
0.45
0.44
0.22
0.27
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.25
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
65% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.07
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.62
0.54
0.54
0.08
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Rotor Volgograd's squad is €4m more valuable than FK Neftekhimik's (€9m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Rotor Volgograd's attack is €1m more valuable than FK Neftekhimik's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Rotor Volgograd's midfield is €2m more valuable than FK Neftekhimik's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Rotor Volgograd's defence is €2m more valuable than FK Neftekhimik's (€4m vs €2m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →