Rotor Volgograd’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.42 goals per game against similarly ranked opposition, while Spartak Kostroma, on the road, has a higher average of 1.0 conceded. The model sees a tight affair, with a 34% chance of a Rotor win, 34% draw, and 33% Spartak win, and it picks a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a low-scoring game, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.2% chance. Rotor’s home scoring average of 1.08 and Spartak’s away scoring of 2.0 suggest the match will stay close. The suggested selections are: Under 3.5 goals at 86.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.8% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 75.0% (miss), and Under 10.5 corners at 70.0%.
Results analysis
Rotor Volgograd’s run of three straight defeats ended in a shock as Spartak Kostroma snatched a 1-2 away victory, overturning the pre-match favourite. The model had selected a home win with a 34% probability, but the result proved wrong. The model’s other picks were all settled: Under 3.5 goals hit at 86.1%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 79.8%, while Over 2.5 cards missed at 75.0%. Rotor’s recent form note highlighted the loss streak, whereas Spartak came off a win, setting the stage for the upset. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rotor Volgograd win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma win✓ Hit
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rotor Volgograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.60
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.57
1.08
0.42
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
1.11
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.45
0.82
1.00
0.60
1.83
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.80
1.00
0.60
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.7%
Under 2.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.9%
Under 3.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
12.4%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
1-2 ✓
6.6%
Rotor Volgograd goals ↓
Spartak Kostroma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.7%
2.2%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
6.9%
6.7%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rotor Volgograd goals (down), columns = Spartak Kostroma goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Fakel
2.00
Ural
1.79
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
Enisey
1.44
KAMAZ
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
Chernomorets
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76
Chayka
0.65
Rotor Volgograd is 0.21 points better than Spartak Kostroma in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rodina Moskva
1.71
Ural
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
KAMAZ
1.35
Fakel
1.29
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Chernomorets
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
Chayka
0.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.47
Rotor Volgograd is 0.03 goals better than Spartak Kostroma in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fakel
0.65
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Rodina Moskva
0.82
Ural
0.91
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
Chernomorets
1.44
Chayka
2.24
Rotor Volgograd is 0.44 goals better than Spartak Kostroma in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Fakel
53%
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rotor Volgograd
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spartak Kostroma
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rotor Volgograd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (41)
-
-
-
3.1
2.9
3.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
2.8
2.8
2.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
3.9
3.2
4.3
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
37%
30%
43%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
63%
70%
57%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
-
-
-
1.8
1.4
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
-
-
-
2.0
1.4
2.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
27%
20%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
73%
80%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
12.5
Chernomorets
11.2
Ural
10.8
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10.6
KAMAZ
10.2
FK Sokol Saratov
10.0
Rodina Moskva
9.4
Fakel
9.2
FC UFA
8.7
FK Neftekhimik
8.0
Enisey
7.0
Torpedo Moskva
6.8
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fakel
5.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.9
KAMAZ
4.5
FC UFA
4.4
Ural
4.1
Rotor Volgograd
3.9
Chernomorets
3.9
Chayka
3.8
Enisey
3.8
Chelyabinsk
3.5
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Rodina Moskva
3.3
Spartak Kostroma
3.3
FK Sokol Saratov
3.3
Arsenal Tula
3.2
FK Neftekhimik
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fakel
27.5
Ural
25.1
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.9%
Under 9.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rotor Volgograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.53
0.33
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.19
0.58
0.25
0.89
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.56
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.36
0.60
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
0.60
0.00
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
64% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rotor Volgograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.53
0.27
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.17
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
0.45
0.40
0.60
1.17
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.50
0.40
0.60
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
55% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Rotor Volgograd and Spartak Kostroma have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Rotor Volgograd and Spartak Kostroma have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Rotor Volgograd and Spartak Kostroma have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Rotor Volgograd and Spartak Kostroma have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Russia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →