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Rubin vs FC Krasnodar Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 1-3
Rubin
Rubin
Vs
27%
32%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
Russia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Rubin a 27% win probability against FC Krasnodar in the Russia: Premier League on 2026-07-26, with 32% for the draw and 41% for FC Krasnodar. The model estimates around 2.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Under 3.5 (83%).

Results analysis

Rubin finished 1-3 against FC Krasnodar (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 27% home win, 32% draw and 41% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (93%). Missed: Under 3.5 (83%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rubin win✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar win✓ Hit
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RubinRubin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D10W00D11D10W00D10W12L22DH·LOK15/03A·KRY22/03A·FC 06/04H·FC 11/04H·AKR18/04A·DYN22/04H·CSK25/04A·BAL02/05A·SPA11/05H·NIZ17/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.001.130.800.801.20
vs Stronger (8)0.751.751.001.250.502.25
vs Similar (8)0.750.751.000.750.500.75
vs Weaker (14)1.210.711.290.571.140.86
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W50W10W11D22D21W21W10W12L30WA·FC 14/03H·NIZ21/03A·AKH04/04A·ZEN12/04H·BAL19/04A·SPA23/04H·DIN26/04A·AKR03/05A·DYN11/05H·FC 17/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.772.400.871.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.501.331.671.671.331.00
vs Weaker (24)2.120.622.580.671.670.58
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.3%
Under 1.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
12.9%
1-0
9.6%
0-2
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.1%
Rubin goals ↓
FC Krasnodar goals →
01234
013%13%8.6%3.5%1.0%
19.6%15%8.0%3.2%1.0%
25.1%6.2%3.7%1.5%0.5%
31.6%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.1%
40.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rubin goals (down), columns = FC Krasnodar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zenit
2.27
FC Krasnodar
2.20
Lokomotiv
1.77
Spartak Moscow
1.73
CSKA Moscow
1.70
Baltika
1.53
Dynamo
1.50
Rubin
1.43
Akhmat
1.23
Rodina Moskva
1.14
FC Rostov
1.10
Fakel
1.10
Krylia Sovetov
1.07
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.97
Akron
0.94
Rubin is 0.77 points worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 2.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Krasnodar
2.00
Lokomotiv
1.80
Zenit
1.77
Dynamo
1.70
Spartak Moscow
1.57
CSKA Moscow
1.47
Baltika
1.27
Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Akhmat
1.17
Akron
1.16
Rodina Moskva
1.02
Fakel
0.98
FC Orenburg
0.97
Rubin
0.97
FC Rostov
0.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.69
Rubin is 1.03 goals worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zenit
0.63
Baltika
0.70
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Rubin
1.00
FC Rostov
1.07
CSKA Moscow
1.10
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.16
Akhmat
1.30
Spartak Moscow
1.30
Lokomotiv
1.30
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.43
FC Orenburg
1.47
Fakel
1.49
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Akron
1.69
Rubin is 0.23 goals worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.77).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Spartak Moscow
62%
FC Krasnodar
60%
Zenit
59%
CSKA Moscow
56%
Dynamo
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
48%
FC Orenburg
47%
Baltika
46%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Dinamo Makhachkala
46%
Akhmat
46%
Akron
45%
Rubin
43%
Rubin is 16.5 percentage points worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of average possession (43% vs 60%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

RubinRubin

For 3.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

150663646547823251617441291091557788H·NIZA·SPAA·BALH·CSKA·DYNH·AKRH·FC A·FC A·KRYH·LOK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

8021522332113513221173755284418H·NIZA·SPAA·BALH·CSKA·DYNH·AKRH·FC A·FC A·KRYH·LOK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 15.3 · Total 28.7

⚠️ Fouls

340151010161220151018141012121818151018142025263225322230332834H·NIZA·SPAA·BALH·CSKA·DYNH·AKRH·FC A·FC A·KRYH·LOK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar

For 5.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

1405362228429325458310488412115591114H·FC A·DYNA·AKRH·DINA·SPAH·BALA·ZENA·AKHH·NIZA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5

🟨 Cards

801313123513523411334438185516H·FC A·DYNA·AKRH·DINA·SPAH·BALA·ZENA·AKHH·NIZA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.1

⚠️ Fouls

360716181611815121014112220161391212111823341927243336222429H·FC A·DYNA·AKRH·DINA·SPAH·BALA·ZENA·AKHH·NIZA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RubinRubin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.18.59.85.05.24.829.028.829.1
vs Stronger (13)8.38.87.95.25.25.129.030.327.9
vs Similar (13)10.28.312.35.56.14.730.230.929.3
vs Weaker (24)9.08.59.64.74.64.828.326.829.8
% over line42%32%52%74%72%76%96%100%92%
% under line58%68%48%26%28%24%4%0%8%
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.69.28.04.75.04.428.527.529.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (10)8.310.07.25.89.03.731.634.529.7
vs Weaker (40)8.79.18.34.54.34.627.826.229.5
% over line35%42%28%66%72%60%88%88%88%
% under line65%58%72%34%28%40%12%12%12%
This opponent (Rubin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
16.0
FC Orenburg
11.1
Dynamo
10.3
CSKA Moscow
10.1
Akhmat
9.7
Akron
9.5
Zenit
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Lokomotiv
9.3
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.1
Rubin
9.1
Fakel
9.0
FC Krasnodar
8.6
FC Rostov
8.5
Baltika
7.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.4
Rubin
5.0
Baltika
4.9
Akhmat
4.8
FC Krasnodar
4.8
FC Rostov
4.8
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Fakel
4.7
FC Orenburg
4.7
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
Dynamo
4.3
Zenit
4.3
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.7
Spartak Moscow
30.4
Akhmat
29.6
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.4
FC Rostov
29.2
Rubin
29.0
Fakel
28.7
FC Krasnodar
28.5
FC Orenburg
27.5
Dynamo
27.1
Lokomotiv
26.9
Zenit
26.9
Akron
26.6
CSKA Moscow
26.1
Krylia Sovetov
25.0
Rodina Moskva
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
31.8%
Under 9.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.9%
Under 21.5
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls92.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.583.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (35)
€204m
CM (35)
€137m
FK (31)
€125m
SM (26)
€119m
LOK (28)
€111m
DYN (33)
€111m
RUB (32)
€53m
FR (33)
€37m
BAL (34)
€36m
KS (32)
€32m
AKH (31)
€32m
AKR (31)
€30m
FO (42)
€25m
DM (30)
€23m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Rubin's squad is €72m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€53m vs €125m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (11)
€109m
FK (15)
€64m
SM (11)
€58m
LOK (9)
€53m
DYN (10)
€46m
CM (16)
€41m
RUB (10)
€18m
FR (14)
€17m
AKH (10)
€16m
KS (13)
€13m
AKR (11)
€11m
FO (15)
€10m
BAL (10)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
DM (11)
€6m
FAK (10)
€5m
Rubin's attack is €46m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€18m vs €64m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (7)
€52m
ZEN (6)
€44m
SM (4)
€29m
DYN (6)
€23m
FK (4)
€20m
LOK (7)
€18m
RUB (9)
€13m
BAL (10)
€13m
KS (6)
€8m
AKR (6)
€8m
FO (10)
€6m
DM (4)
€3m
RM (4)
€3m
AKH (6)
€3m
FR (4)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Rubin's midfield is €7m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€13m vs €20m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (18)
€51m
CM (12)
€44m
DYN (17)
€41m
FK (12)
€41m
LOK (12)
€41m
SM (11)
€32m
RUB (13)
€22m
FR (15)
€17m
BAL (14)
€16m
DM (15)
€13m
AKH (15)
€13m
KS (13)
€11m
AKR (14)
€11m
FO (17)
€9m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Rubin's defence is €20m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€22m vs €41m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Rubin vs FC Krasnodar · H/A from RUB
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26HRUB Vs FC Krasnodar2-1
26/10/25AFC Krasnodar Vs RUB1-0
03/05/25AFC Krasnodar Vs RUB2-1
10/11/24HRUB Vs FC Krasnodar1-1
02/03/24AFC Krasnodar Vs RUB1-1
30/09/23HRUB Vs FC Krasnodar0-2

RubinRubin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HRUB Vs Nizhny Novgorod2-2
11/05/26ASpartak Moscow Vs RUB2-1
02/05/26ABaltika Vs RUB0-1
25/04/26HRUB Vs CSKA Moscow0-0
22/04/26ADynamo Vs RUB0-1
18/04/26HRUB Vs Akron1-1
11/04/26HRUB Vs FC Orenburg0-0
06/04/26AFC Sochi Vs RUB0-1
22/03/26AKrylia Sovetov Vs RUB0-0
15/03/26HRUB Vs Lokomotiv3-0

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HFK Vs FC Orenburg3-0
11/05/26ADynamo Vs FK2-1
03/05/26AAkron Vs FK0-1
26/04/26HFK Vs Dinamo Makhachkala2-1
23/04/26ASpartak Moscow Vs FK1-2
19/04/26HFK Vs Baltika2-2
12/04/26AZenit Vs FK1-1
04/04/26AAkhmat Vs FK0-1
21/03/26HFK Vs Nizhny Novgorod5-0
14/03/26AFC Sochi Vs FK1-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Rubin
Rubin
Russia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLD1.52
HomeWDDDD2.08
AwayDWWWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%60%24%
AVG goals2.382.202.56
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %24%16%32%
Scored1.181.361.00
Conceded1.200.841.56
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet38%52%24%
Corners9.148.529.76
Cards5.005.164.84
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
Russia: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW2.18
HomeWWDWW2.40
AwayWDWWL1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%76%56%
AVG goals2.843.122.56
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %62%72%52%
Over 3.5 %26%36%16%
Scored2.022.361.68
Conceded0.820.760.88
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet44%48%40%
Corners8.639.258.04
Cards4.825.044.58

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar412
100%
3.0
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
8.0
25%
4.5
100%
24.0
50%
125
6420412.21.0
60%
2ZenitZenit49
75%
2.2
122+10
3.5
100%
100%
25%
10.8
50%
3.8
75%
25.0
50%
204
10944513.00.5
59%
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow49
75%
2.2
84+4
3.0
100%
100%
0%
12.0
75%
4.5
75%
27.2
100%
119
5829322.01.0
62%
4Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala49
75%
2.2
96+3
3.8
100%
100%
50%
10.0
75%
4.2
50%
24.0
50%
23
63132.21.5
46%
5CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow48
50%
2.0
42+2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
7.5
25%
3.5
25%
25.5
75%
137
4152441.00.5
56%
6BaltikaBaltika46
50%
1.5
65+1
2.8
100%
75%
0%
9.5
50%
3.0
25%
27.0
100%
36
813161.51.2
46%
7FC RostovFC Rostov45
25%
1.2
65+1
2.8
75%
50%
25%
7.8
25%
4.8
25%
26.0
75%
37
173171.51.2
48%
8RubinRubin45
25%
1.2
56-1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
7.8
25%
3.5
25%
25.8
75%
53
1813221.21.5
43%
9FC OrenburgFC Orenburg45
25%
1.2
46-2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
8.5
25%
5.0
50%
28.8
100%
25
10691.01.5
47%
10DynamoDynamo44
25%
1.0
46-2
2.5
75%
75%
25%
8.0
25%
4.0
67%
28.5
100%
111
4623411.01.5
54%
11Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva44
25%
1.0
711-4
4.5
100%
100%
50%
11.8
75%
2.2
0%
27.5
75%
17
7371.82.8
-
12LokomotivLokomotiv43
0%
0.8
34-1
1.8
75%
25%
0%
8.2
25%
3.5
25%
27.5
75%
111
5318410.81.0
51%
13AkhmatAkhmat42
0%
0.5
24-2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
8.5
25%
3.8
50%
24.0
75%
32
163130.51.0
46%
14Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov42
0%
0.5
27-5
2.2
75%
25%
25%
9.0
25%
3.7
33%
27.0
75%
32
138110.51.8
46%
15AkronAkron42
0%
0.5
410-6
3.5
75%
75%
50%
9.0
25%
3.5
50%
24.8
50%
30
118111.02.5
45%
16FakelFakel41
0%
0.2
36-3
2.2
50%
50%
25%
10.2
75%
3.5
50%
24.5
75%
14
5270.81.5
-
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →

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