Ruch Chorzów are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 62% chance of victory, a 23% draw probability and only 15% for Odra Opole. The prediction is driven by Ruch’s solid home form - they average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded against teams of similar strength - while Odra’s away record is weaker, with just 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 11.7% probability. The single most likely total of goals is two, with a 25% chance of that exact figure. Suggested picks include an 77.6% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit in the model’s history. Ruch’s recent run of LWWDL shows they are coming off a defeat, whereas Odra’s WDDWL streak ends with a win, hinting at a potential lift in form. The model’s overall pick remains a home win, backed by Ruch’s defensive solidity and Odra’s struggles on the road.
Results analysis
Ruch Chorzów’s recent form shows a win streak after a defeat, while Odra Opole comes off a win. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct as Ruch triumphed 6-0. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 62%. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 77.6% chance. The most likely score was 2-0, yet the match produced a far more decisive result. All figures are taken directly from the data, and the outcome confirms the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ruch Chorzów win✓ Hit
62.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole win✗ Miss
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ruch Chorzów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.73
0.91
1.21
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.78
1.75
1.50
1.40
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.05
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.07
1.27
1.27
1.67
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.56
0.80
2.20
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.11
1.33
0.89
0.80
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
1-1
11.1%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
4.3%
Ruch Chorzów goals ↓
Odra Opole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
4.2%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
2
12%
9.8%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
3
7.5%
6.3%
2.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
3.6%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ruch Chorzów goals (down), columns = Odra Opole goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arka Gdynia
2.12
Nieciecza
2.09
Wisla Plock
1.94
Wisla Krakow
1.77
Miedz Legnica
1.64
Polonia Warszawa
1.60
Tychy 71
1.56
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
ŁKS Łódź
1.38
Stal Rzeszów
1.03
Chrobry Głogów
0.97
Pogoń Siedlce
0.88
Odra Opole
0.88
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Warta Poznań
0.71
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.68
Ruch Chorzów is 0.53 points better than Odra Opole in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nieciecza
2.06
Arka Gdynia
1.85
Wisla Krakow
1.80
Wisla Plock
1.72
Miedz Legnica
1.58
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.47
Tychy 71
1.38
Polonia Warszawa
1.34
Stal Rzeszów
1.24
Pogoń Siedlce
1.12
Chrobry Głogów
1.09
Odra Opole
0.91
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.79
Warta Poznań
0.65
Ruch Chorzów is 0.56 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arka Gdynia
0.71
Wisla Krakow
0.94
Tychy 71
1.06
Wisla Plock
1.08
Polonia Warszawa
1.11
Nieciecza
1.15
ŁKS Łódź
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.26
Miedz Legnica
1.31
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Pogoń Siedlce
1.56
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.62
Warta Poznań
1.65
Stal Rzeszów
1.74
Chrobry Głogów
1.74
Odra Opole
1.79
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.91
Ruch Chorzów is 0.44 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ruch Chorzów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.73
0.36
0.53
0.58
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.50
0.75
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.42
1.00
0.20
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
0.80
1.40
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.56
0.44
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ruch Chorzów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
1.00
0.55
0.68
0.89
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.63
0.80
0.20
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.44
0.00
0.80
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.58
0.78
0.44
0.10
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ruch Chorzów · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Michał Feliks22%
Tomasz Swędrowski21%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomás Podstawski10%
Robert Dadok10%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Mateusz Bartolewski7%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Kacper Michalski5%
Przemysław Szur5%
Juliusz Letniowski4%
Miłosz Kozak4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maciej Sadlok42%
Tomás Podstawski40%
Remigiusz Szywacz40%
Patryk Stępiński23%
Daniel Szczepan23%
Juliusz Letniowski22%
Michał Feliks22%
Przemysław Szur20%
Paweł Baranowski17%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Miłosz Kozak16%
Tomasz Swędrowski16%
Kacper Michalski15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Dante Stipica14%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk13%
Robert Dadok10%
Szymon Szymański10%
Wiktor Długosz9%
Soma Novothny8%
Dominik Steczyk8%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miłosz Kozak20%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Soma Novothny15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Filip Wilak12%
Łukasz Moneta11%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Tomasz Swędrowski5%
Michał Feliks4%
Filip Starzyński4%
Daniel Szczepan3%
Szymon Szymański3%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Juliusz Letniowski0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Robert Dadok0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robert Dadok30%
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Filip Wilak12%
Miłosz Kozak12%
Juliusz Letniowski9%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Filip Starzyński4%
Mateusz Bartolewski4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Łukasz Moneta0%
Tomasz Swędrowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Michał Feliks0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
WP (0)
€0m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
Wisla Plock
Wisla Krakow
Miedz Legnica
Polonia Warszawa
Tychy 71
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
ŁKS Łódź
Stal Rzeszów
Chrobry Głogów
Pogoń Siedlce
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Warta Poznań
Stal Stalowa Wola