The model favours a home win, with Ruch Chorzów expected to edge Odra Opole. The odds are 45% for a home victory, 28% for a draw and 26% for an away win. A modest 2.6 goals are projected, centring on a 2-goal total that is 27% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% chance. Ruch, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.93 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Odra, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.09 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 74.4% and Over 1.5 goals at 73.8%. The final result of the last match was a 2-0 home win, a win that followed a defeat for Ruch and a win for Odra.
Results analysis
Ruch Chorzów’s recent form, with a win after a defeat, set the stage for a home advantage that the model predicted correctly. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 45 percent, and the final score of 2-0 confirmed the model’s pick. The model’s selections also proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.4 percent probability, hit, and Over 1.5 goals, at 73.8 percent, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, 1-0 or 2-1 was eclipsed by the 2-0 result, but the overall prediction of a home victory and a low-scoring affair was spot on.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ruch Chorzów win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ruch Chorzów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.75
1.31
1.14
1.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.32
1.93
1.29
1.27
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.87
1.07
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.17
1.33
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.13
0.75
1.17
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-0 ✓
8.5%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
4.9%
Ruch Chorzów goals ↓
Odra Opole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
7.1%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.5%
9.1%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.5%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ruch Chorzów goals (down), columns = Odra Opole goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Ruch Chorzów is 0.26 points better than Odra Opole in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Tychy 71
1.18
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Ruch Chorzów is 0.59 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Stal Mielec
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Ruch Chorzów is 0.18 goals worse than Odra Opole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ruch Chorzów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.00
0.62
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.64
1.07
0.57
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.37
0.33
0.40
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.26
0.39
0.33
0.42
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ruch Chorzów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.75
0.69
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.68
0.86
0.71
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.67
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.74
0.42
0.75
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ruch Chorzów · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Michał Feliks22%
Tomasz Swędrowski21%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomás Podstawski10%
Robert Dadok10%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Mateusz Bartolewski7%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Kacper Michalski5%
Przemysław Szur5%
Juliusz Letniowski4%
Miłosz Kozak4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maciej Sadlok42%
Tomás Podstawski40%
Remigiusz Szywacz40%
Patryk Stępiński23%
Daniel Szczepan23%
Juliusz Letniowski22%
Michał Feliks22%
Przemysław Szur20%
Paweł Baranowski17%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Miłosz Kozak16%
Tomasz Swędrowski16%
Kacper Michalski15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Dante Stipica14%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk13%
Robert Dadok10%
Szymon Szymański10%
Wiktor Długosz9%
Soma Novothny8%
Dominik Steczyk8%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miłosz Kozak20%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Soma Novothny15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Filip Wilak12%
Łukasz Moneta11%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Tomasz Swędrowski5%
Michał Feliks4%
Filip Starzyński4%
Daniel Szczepan3%
Szymon Szymański3%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Juliusz Letniowski0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Robert Dadok0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robert Dadok30%
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Filip Wilak12%
Miłosz Kozak12%
Juliusz Letniowski9%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Filip Starzyński4%
Mateusz Bartolewski4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Łukasz Moneta0%
Tomasz Swędrowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Michał Feliks0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Ruch Chorzów and Odra Opole have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Wisla Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Chrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Stal Rzeszów
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Mielec
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71