Ruthin Town’s recent form has slipped after two straight defeats, while Caersws arrive on a two-game winning streak that saw them beat Buckley Town 2-0. The model favours an away win, with a 39% probability, followed by a 36% chance of a home victory and a 25% draw. The expected total is 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11% probability. Ruthin, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. Caersws, on the road, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.2%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.9%), and Away under 3.5 goals (90.7%).
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 2.10 | 1.13 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 2.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.17 | 1.71 | 1.15 | 1.54 | 1.18 | 1.91 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 3.67 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.43 | 2.12 | 0.94 | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.10 | 1.38 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Caersws goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 11% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.97 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.54 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.12 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.44 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.38 | 0.81 | 1.70 | 0.60 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 97.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.2% |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 95.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +5.1% |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +5.7% |
| Under 6.5 | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 94.0% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +6.7% |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 90.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 89.4% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +6.8% |
| Under 5.5 | 88.1% | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.07 | - | - | - | +3.2% |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.3% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | +7.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 85.3% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.11 | - | - | - | +3.9% |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 83.2% | 1.19 | 1.19 | - | - | - | - | +6.1% |
| Away +2 handicap | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 81.7% | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | -1.4% |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 81.6% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +4.0% |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 80.3% | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | -1.7% |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.19 | - | - | - | +5.8% |
| Home +2 handicap | 79.3% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +10.7% |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 77.9% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -3.2% |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +7.1% |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 75.9% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +6.8% |
| Under 4.5 | 75.9% | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | +2.0% |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 75.7% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +8.5% |
| Home or Away | 75.1% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | -0.9% |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 73.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | - | -2.4% |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 5-1 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/08/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/03/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/08/23 | A | 5-1 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |