Ruthin Town welcomes Denbigh Town to the Wales: FAW Championship, with the home side's recent form a storyline to follow. After 4 straight defeats, Ruthin Town finally secured a win in their last outing, a 1-2 victory over Bala Town. Denbigh Town, meanwhile, are coming off a defeat to Bangor City 1876 FC, losing 1-2.
The model's predictions suggest a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.5 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10%.
In terms of form, Ruthin Town have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home against similar opponents, while Denbigh Town have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 87.7%.
The model favours a home win, with a probability of 41%, followed by a draw at 24% and an away win at 35%. The home side's home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 35%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a probability of 87.7%.
The win extends Ruthin Town's recent run, as they secured a 2-1 victory over Denbigh Town. This outcome was in line with the predicted result, with the final score falling within the model's most likely scores. The model correctly selected the home win, which had a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's call was correct, as the actual result was indeed a home win. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 87.7%. The model's other selections, however, did not come in, with the most likely total goals and most likely scores not materialising. The expected total goals was 3.5, but the actual score was 2-1, resulting in under 3 goals.
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 2.10 | 1.19 | 1.62 | 1.36 | 2.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 1.73 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 3.12 | 0.75 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 2.03 | 1.77 | 1.38 | 1.65 | 2.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.84 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.50 | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.45 | 2.45 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Denbigh Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 10% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 1.45 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 1.17 | 0.62 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 1.88 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.91 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.7% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.08 | - | - | - | +8.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 24/10/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/12/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 01/01/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 26/12/23 | A | 2-1 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 25/02/26 | H | 0-4 |
Denbigh Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |