Ruthin Town are expected to secure a home win, with a 44% chance of success. However, their recent form has been a concern, having suffered four consecutive defeats before a narrow win. Holyhead Hotspur, on the other hand, are coming off a defeat but have shown resilience in their away form, scoring an average of 1.31 goals against stronger opponents.
The expected total goals stand at 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.6%. Ruthin Town's home form has seen them concede an average of 1 goal, while scoring none themselves against weaker opponents. Holyhead Hotspur's away form has seen them score an average of 1.31 goals against stronger opponents, while conceding 2.38.
The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a 79.6% probability of success. The model's selections also include a Home win, with a 44% probability, and a Draw, with a 27% probability. The model's selections for the match outcome are: Home win (44%), Draw (27%), and Away win (30%). The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a 79.6% probability of success.
The upset of the day came when Holyhead Hotspur defeated Ruthin Town 2-1, extending their recent form woes. The win marks Holyhead's first victory after four straight defeats, following a 1-2 loss to Bala Town. In contrast, Ruthin Town was coming off a win, but their recent form note suggests a reversal in fortunes. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, as it had a 44% chance of happening. The model's call was wrong, with Holyhead Hotspur's away win being the actual result. The model's selection of Home win had a 44% probability. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with a probability of 79.6%.
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 2.13 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.35 | 1.83 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.27 | 2.27 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 3.14 | 0.33 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.94 | 1.24 | 1.31 | 2.15 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.63 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Holyhead Hotspur goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 13% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 1.29 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.36 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.83 | 1.06 | 0.35 | 0.69 | 1.46 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.74 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.44 | 1.78 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/10/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 17/12/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 2-0 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 25/02/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/01/26 | H | 0-1 |
Holyhead Hotspur| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |