Ruthin Town’s recent slump of two straight defeats has left them desperate for a turnaround, while Penrhyncoch, still reeling from a 0-4 loss, will seek to reverse their poor away form. The model favours a home win, with a 56% chance, a 22% draw probability and a 22% chance of a Penrhyncoch victory. The expected total of 3.5 goals suggests a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.7% probability. Ruthin’s home form shows an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Penrhyncoch’s away numbers are 0.75 scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, with an 87% probability. All three outcome percentages are listed: 56% for a home win, 22% for a draw, 22% for an away win. The predicted scoreline, 1-1, stands alone as the most probable.
The updated form shows Ruthin Town’s recent run extending after two straight defeats, while Penrhyncoch were coming off a 0-4 loss. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 56%, proved correct as Ruthin secured a 2-1 victory. The expected total of 3.5 goals fell short, with the actual 3-goal tally matching the most likely score of 2-0 or 2-1. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 87% probability, hit as the match produced three goals. All other suggested picks were settled, confirming the model’s predictions largely came through.
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.45 | 1.59 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.53 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.89 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.11 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 2.18 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.11 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 2.18 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 11% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.68 | 0.91 | 0.80 | 1.10 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.74 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 36% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 1.53 | 0.45 | 1.55 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.37 | 1.53 | 0.45 | 1.55 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 16% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/22 | A | 1-1 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/01/23 | A | 0-4 | |
| 14/01/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 1-6 | |
| 17/12/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/12/22 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/11/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 0-1 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/01/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/01/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 2-5 | |
| 07/12/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/11/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 4-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 3-4 | |
| 29/10/22 | A | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |