Ruthin Town are tipped to win in a match that is expected to see three goals on average, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 11.9%. The model favours a home victory, giving the home side a 49% chance, a 26% chance for a draw and a 26% chance for Penrhyncoch to win. Ruthin’s home form shows they score 1.15 goals and concede 1.54 against similar opposition, while Penrhyncoch’s away numbers are 0.93 scored and 2.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 5.5 (91.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.7%), Home +2 handicap (89.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.9%). Ruthin have been in a slump with two straight defeats, while Penrhyncoch are also struggling after a 0-4 loss. The overall shape points to a tight contest with Ruthin edging the game.
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 2.10 | 1.13 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 2.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.17 | 1.71 | 1.15 | 1.54 | 1.18 | 1.91 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 3.67 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 2.03 | 2.00 | 1.46 | 0.88 | 2.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.38 | 2.04 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 0.93 | 2.43 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 12% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.97 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.54 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.35 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.23 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.81 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 96.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 89.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 81.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/08/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/10/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 23/08/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/09/22 | A | 1-1 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |