Ruthin Town’s recent run of two straight defeats has left them looking for a quick turnaround, while Porthmadog are coming off a draw that saw them score twice. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance for Ruthin, a 24% chance of a draw and a 34% chance of a Porthmadog victory. The expected total is 3.4 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 10.5% probability. Ruthin, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded, whereas Porthmadog, on the road, averages 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 86.5% probability. The probabilities for the match outcome are 42% home win, 24% draw, 34% away win.
Ruthin Town’s win extends their recent run, ending a two-match losing streak with a 1-0 victory over Porthmadog. The final score matched the actual result, a home win, and the total goals fell well below the model’s expected 3.4. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 42% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.5% probability, which missed as the match produced just one goal. All figures are taken directly from the model’s data, and no other selections were made.
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.48 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.56 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 19% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.15 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.15 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Porthmadog goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 11% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.71 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 1.22 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 55% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 48% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 1.10 | 0.10 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 1.10 | 0.10 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 35% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/23 | A | 0-4 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/23 | A | 0-4 | |
| 14/01/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 1-6 | |
| 17/12/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/12/22 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/11/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 2-0 |
Porthmadog| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/23 | H | 0-4 | |
| 20/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/01/23 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/01/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 3-1 | |
| 06/12/22 | A | 4-0 | |
| 26/11/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |