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Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 26/01/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Vs
42%
31%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sabah FA win✓ Hit
42.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-650W10W32W21W20W00D10W11D22D60WH·KAP09/10H·ZIR15/10A·NEF23/10H·QAB30/10A·SƏB06/11H·QAR13/11A·TUR29/11H·ŞAM03/12A·KAP14/12A·SUM23/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.220.721.890.442.561.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)2.001.331.000.333.002.33
vs Weaker (12)2.330.422.330.502.330.33
Clean sheet %56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W23L30W22D20W31W04L10W30WH·TUR08/10A·KAP16/10H·SAB23/10A·ZIR29/10A·SUM05/11H·QAB12/11H·SƏB27/11H·QAR02/12A·TUR15/12H·ŞAM23/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.821.052.271.091.361.00
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.004.001.003.00
vs Similar (10)1.401.001.801.001.001.00
vs Weaker (10)2.500.603.200.601.800.60
Clean sheet %45% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.5%
2-0 ✓
8.4%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.0%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
011%8.7%5.0%1.7%0.4%
112%14%6.6%2.2%0.6%
28.4%8.5%4.3%1.4%0.4%
33.7%3.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
41.2%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Sabah FA is 0.36 points better than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Sabah FA is 0.33 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Sabah FA is 0.39 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W00D20W01L10W00D00D10W11D40WH·KAP09/10H·ZIR15/10A·NEF23/10H·QAB30/10A·SƏB06/11H·QAR13/11A·TUR29/11H·ŞAM03/12A·KAP14/12A·SUM23/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.280.780.221.220.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.830.500.000.331.670.67
vs Weaker (12)1.080.171.170.171.000.17
Clean sheet %72% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W02L10W01L10W10W01L00D10WH·TUR08/10A·KAP16/10H·SAB23/10A·ZIR29/10A·SUM05/11H·QAB12/11H·SƏB27/11H·QAR02/12A·TUR15/12H·ŞAM23/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.230.910.270.360.18
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.500.200.600.400.400.00
vs Weaker (10)0.800.201.400.000.200.40
Clean sheet %82% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W12L20W10W00D10W01L11D20WH·KAP09/10H·ZIR15/10A·NEF23/10H·QAB30/10A·SƏB06/11H·QAR13/11A·TUR29/11H·ŞAM03/12A·KAP14/12A·SUM23/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.220.441.110.221.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.170.831.000.001.331.67
vs Weaker (12)1.250.251.170.331.330.17
Clean sheet %72% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W21W20W21W10W21W03L10W20WH·TUR08/10A·KAP16/10H·SAB23/10A·ZIR29/10A·SUM05/11H·QAB12/11H·SƏB27/11H·QAR02/12A·TUR15/12H·ŞAM23/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.180.821.360.821.000.82
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.003.000.003.00
vs Similar (10)0.900.801.200.600.601.00
vs Weaker (10)1.700.401.800.601.600.20
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.8%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sabah FA's squad is €4m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€17m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku have a similar attack value (both €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €3m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku have a similar defence value (both €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
SF wins
0
Draws
0
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from SF
DateH/AGameScore
23/10/22ANeftchi Baku Vs SF2-3
20/08/22HSF Vs Neftchi Baku2-1

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/12/22ASumqayıt Vs SF0-6
14/12/22AKapaz Vs SF2-2
03/12/22HSF Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
29/11/22ATuran Vs SF0-1
13/11/22HSF Vs Qarabag0-0
06/11/22ASəbail Vs SF0-2
30/10/22HSF Vs Qabala2-1
23/10/22ANeftchi Baku Vs SF2-3
15/10/22HSF Vs Zira1-0
09/10/22HSF Vs Kapaz5-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/12/22HNB Vs Şamaxı FK3-0
15/12/22ATuran Vs NB0-1
02/12/22HNB Vs Qarabag0-4
27/11/22HNB Vs Səbail3-1
12/11/22HNB Vs Qabala2-0
05/11/22ASumqayıt Vs NB2-2
29/10/22AZira Vs NB0-3
23/10/22HNB Vs Sabah FA2-3
16/10/22AKapaz Vs NB0-2
08/10/22HNB Vs Turan0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDW2.39
HomeWWWDD2.33
AwayWWWDW2.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%67%78%
AVG goals2.942.333.56
Over 1.5 %72%67%78%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %39%22%56%
Scored2.221.892.56
Conceded0.720.441.00
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet56%56%56%
Corners---
Cards---
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW2.00
HomeLWWLW2.27
AwayLWWDW1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%73%55%
AVG goals2.863.362.36
Over 1.5 %82%91%73%
Over 2.5 %64%82%45%
Over 3.5 %27%36%18%
Scored1.822.271.36
Conceded1.051.091.00
BTTS41%45%36%
Clean Sheet45%45%45%
Corners11.508.0015.00
Cards5.505.505.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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