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SalPa vs Lahti Result & Analysis

Date: 28/06/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-2
SalPa
SalPa
Vs
26%
31%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lahti
Lahti
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SalPa win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lahti win✓ Hit
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SalPaSalPa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L11D11D01L13L12L00D00D13LH·PK-27/04A·LAH03/05A·HJS06/05H·JÄP10/05H·EIF17/05A·KÄP21/05H·TUR25/05H·SJK01/06H·JIP14/06A·PK-18/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.730.881.560.931.93
vs Stronger (2)1.501.00--1.501.00
vs Similar (22)0.821.820.921.460.672.33
vs Weaker (6)1.001.670.672.001.331.33
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W10W13L10W22D53W20W10W21W21WA·KLU28/04H·SAL03/05A·JIP13/05H·SJK17/05A·TUR21/05H·KÄP25/05H·JÄP02/06A·EIF06/06H·PK-14/06H·KLU19/06
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.331.790.791.061.81
vs Stronger (6)0.832.002.001.000.602.20
vs Similar (20)1.351.251.400.701.301.80
vs Weaker (4)2.500.753.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SalPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
11.9%
0-2
9.0%
1-0
8.7%
1-2 ✓
8.5%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
4.7%
SalPa goals ↓
Lahti goals →
01234
012%12%9.0%3.9%1.3%
18.7%14%8.5%3.7%1.2%
24.7%6.1%4.0%1.7%0.6%
31.5%1.9%1.3%0.5%0.2%
40.3%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SalPa goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lahti
2.15
Turku PS
1.96
PK-35
1.56
JIPPO
1.52
EIF
1.52
Klubi-04
1.44
JäPS
1.19
SJK Akatemia
1.07
KäPa
0.90
SalPa
0.56
OLS
0.00
SalPa is 1.59 points worse than Lahti in terms of average points per game (0.56 vs 2.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Turku PS
2.44
Lahti
2.00
Klubi-04
1.81
EIF
1.78
SJK Akatemia
1.70
KäPa
1.66
JäPS
1.52
PK-35
1.44
JIPPO
1.37
OLS
1.00
SalPa
0.81
SalPa is 1.19 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
PK-35
1.11
Lahti
1.11
JIPPO
1.15
EIF
1.59
Klubi-04
1.67
Turku PS
1.67
SJK Akatemia
1.81
JäPS
1.85
SalPa
1.93
KäPa
2.41
OLS
3.50
SalPa is 0.81 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SalPaSalPa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W11D00D10W01L00D00D02LH·PK-27/04A·LAH03/05A·HJS06/05H·JÄP10/05H·EIF17/05A·KÄP21/05H·TUR25/05H·SJK01/06H·JIP14/06A·PK-18/06
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.310.750.430.71
vs Stronger (2)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (22)0.270.860.380.770.111.00
vs Weaker (6)0.500.500.000.671.000.33
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L10W01L21W10W00D21W20WA·KLU28/04H·SAL03/05A·JIP13/05H·SJK17/05A·TUR21/05H·KÄP25/05H·JÄP02/06A·EIF06/06H·PK-14/06H·KLU19/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.531.000.360.440.69
vs Stronger (6)0.331.001.001.000.201.00
vs Similar (20)0.750.450.900.300.600.60
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.330.330.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (SalPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SalPa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SalPa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SalPa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SalPaSalPa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L00D01L03L11D00D00D11DH·PK-27/04A·LAH03/05A·HJS06/05H·JÄP10/05H·EIF17/05A·KÄP21/05H·TUR25/05H·SJK01/06H·JIP14/06A·PK-18/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.560.810.501.21
vs Stronger (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Similar (22)0.550.950.540.690.561.33
vs Weaker (6)0.501.170.671.330.331.00
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W12L00D21W32W10W10W00D01LA·KLU28/04H·SAL03/05A·JIP13/05H·SJK17/05A·TUR21/05H·KÄP25/05H·JÄP02/06A·EIF06/06H·PK-14/06H·KLU19/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.790.430.621.12
vs Stronger (6)0.501.001.000.000.401.20
vs Similar (20)0.600.800.500.400.701.20
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.670.671.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SalPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SalPa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SalPa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SalPa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.0%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Lahti · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
José Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tòfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
Tòfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAH (22)
€3m
TP (22)
€2m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
KLU (17)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SAL wins
0
Draws
1
LAH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

SalPa vs Lahti · H/A from SAL
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25ALahti Vs SAL1-0

SalPaSalPa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/06/25APK-35 Vs SAL3-1
14/06/25HSAL Vs JIPPO0-0
01/06/25HSAL Vs SJK Akatemia0-0
25/05/25HSAL Vs Turku PS1-2
21/05/25AKäPa Vs SAL3-1
17/05/25HSAL Vs EIF0-1
10/05/25HSAL Vs JäPS1-1
06/05/25AHJS Akatemia Vs SAL1-1
03/05/25ALahti Vs SAL1-0
27/04/25HSAL Vs PK-351-2

LahtiLahti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/06/25HLAH Vs Klubi-042-1
14/06/25HLAH Vs PK-352-1
06/06/25AEIF Vs LAH0-1
02/06/25HLAH Vs JäPS2-0
25/05/25HLAH Vs KäPa5-3
21/05/25ATurku PS Vs LAH2-2
17/05/25HLAH Vs SJK Akatemia1-0
13/05/25AJIPPO Vs LAH3-1
03/05/25HLAH Vs SalPa1-0
28/04/25AKlubi-04 Vs LAH0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

SalPa
SalPa
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL0.98
HomeDLLDD0.75
AwayLLDLL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%10%33%
AVG goals2.682.602.76
Over 1.5 %78%70%86%
Over 2.5 %49%50%48%
Over 3.5 %27%30%24%
Scored1.051.051.05
Conceded1.631.551.71
BTTS56%60%52%
Clean Sheet17%20%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Lahti
Lahti
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.34
HomeWWWWW1.96
AwayDWLDW0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%58%12%
AVG goals2.922.962.88
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.401.671.15
Conceded1.521.291.73
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet30%33%27%
Corners14.2014.3314.00
Cards4.404.334.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LahtiLahti2758
63%
2.1
5430+24
3.1
78%
67%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.1
-
2Turku PSTurku PS2753
59%
2.0
6645+21
4.1
93%
81%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.7
-
3PK-35PK-352742
41%
1.6
3930+9
2.6
85%
52%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.1
-
4JIPPOJIPPO2741
37%
1.5
3731+6
2.5
81%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.1
-
5EIFEIF2741
44%
1.5
4843+5
3.4
85%
63%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.6
-
6Klubi-04Klubi-042739
41%
1.4
4945+4
3.5
89%
67%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7JäPSJäPS2732
26%
1.2
4150-9
3.4
89%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.9
-
8SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia2729
30%
1.1
4649-3
3.5
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
9KäPaKäPa2926
21%
0.9
4870-22
4.1
93%
79%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.72.4
-
10SalPaSalPa2715
15%
0.6
2252-30
2.7
70%
59%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
11OLSOLS20
0%
0.0
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →

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