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Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 28/11/2022
Time: 10:00
Final 1-1
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Vs
51%
26%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D12L01L01L11D00D04L31W42WH·TUR03/09A·SUM11/09A·KAP18/09H·SAB02/10A·ZIR07/10H·QAB14/10A·SƏB23/10H·QAR30/10A·TUR04/11H·SUM11/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.861.640.861.570.861.71
vs Stronger (5)0.002.200.002.000.002.50
vs Similar (9)1.331.331.501.251.201.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L02L21W00D05L02L11D30W13L00DH·QAR01/09A·TUR09/09H·ŞAM18/09A·SUM02/10A·SAB09/10H·NEF16/10A·QAB22/10H·SƏB29/10A·QAR06/11H·TUR13/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.792.070.861.290.712.86
vs Stronger (8)0.502.500.251.250.753.75
vs Similar (6)1.171.501.671.330.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
Şamaxı FK goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
06.7%5.3%3.6%1.4%0.4%
18.7%12%6.3%2.4%0.7%
28.6%9.7%5.5%2.1%0.6%
35.0%5.7%3.2%1.2%0.3%
42.2%2.5%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şamaxı FK goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Şamaxı FK is 0.17 points worse than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Şamaxı FK is 0.22 goals worse than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (0.72 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Şamaxı FK is 0.28 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.72).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W00D00D00D00D00D21W21WH·TUR03/09A·SUM11/09A·KAP18/09H·SAB02/10A·ZIR07/10H·QAB14/10A·SƏB23/10H·QAR30/10A·TUR04/11H·SUM11/11
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.290.290.570.86
vs Stronger (5)0.000.200.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (9)0.670.780.500.500.801.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L00D03L01L01L10W01L00DH·QAR01/09A·TUR09/09H·ŞAM18/09A·SUM02/10A·SAB09/10H·NEF16/10A·QAB22/10H·SƏB29/10A·QAR06/11H·TUR13/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.211.070.290.860.141.29
vs Stronger (8)0.121.380.250.750.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.331.000.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D02L01L01L11D00D04L10W21WH·TUR03/09A·SUM11/09A·KAP18/09H·SAB02/10A·ZIR07/10H·QAB14/10A·SƏB23/10H·QAR30/10A·TUR04/11H·SUM11/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.070.571.290.290.86
vs Stronger (5)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.561.000.750.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W00D02L01L10W20W12L00DH·QAR01/09A·TUR09/09H·ŞAM18/09A·SUM02/10A·SAB09/10H·NEF16/10A·QAB22/10H·SƏB29/10A·QAR06/11H·TUR13/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.000.570.430.571.57
vs Stronger (8)0.381.120.000.500.751.75
vs Similar (6)0.830.831.330.330.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Şamaxı FK's squad is €1m less valuable than Kapaz's (€4m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK and Kapaz have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Şamaxı FK and Kapaz have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Şamaxı FK's defence is €1m less valuable than Kapaz's (€2m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ŞF wins
0
Draws
1
KAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz · H/A from ŞF
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/22AKapaz Vs ŞF2-1

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/22HŞF Vs Sumqayıt4-2
04/11/22ATuran Vs ŞF1-3
30/10/22HŞF Vs Qarabag0-4
23/10/22ASəbail Vs ŞF0-0
14/10/22HŞF Vs Qabala1-1
07/10/22AZira Vs ŞF1-0
02/10/22HŞF Vs Sabah FA0-1
18/09/22AKapaz Vs ŞF2-1
11/09/22ASumqayıt Vs ŞF1-1
03/09/22HŞF Vs Turan0-1

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/22HKAP Vs Turan0-0
06/11/22AQarabag Vs KAP3-1
29/10/22HKAP Vs Səbail3-0
22/10/22AQabala Vs KAP1-1
16/10/22HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
09/10/22ASabah FA Vs KAP5-0
02/10/22ASumqayıt Vs KAP0-0
18/09/22HKAP Vs Şamaxı FK2-1
09/09/22ATuran Vs KAP2-0
01/09/22HKAP Vs Qarabag0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW0.71
HomeLLDLW0.71
AwayDLLDW0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%14%14%
AVG goals2.502.432.57
Over 1.5 %64%57%71%
Over 2.5 %43%29%57%
Over 3.5 %36%29%43%
Scored0.860.860.86
Conceded1.641.571.71
BTTS50%43%57%
Clean Sheet7%0%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLD0.64
HomeLWLWD1.00
AwayLDLDL0.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%29%0%
AVG goals2.862.143.57
Over 1.5 %79%71%86%
Over 2.5 %57%57%57%
Over 3.5 %29%0%57%
Scored0.790.860.71
Conceded2.071.292.86
BTTS43%29%57%
Clean Sheet21%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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