Sampdoria’s defensive solidity is highlighted by a 1.0 average of goals conceded at home, while they manage 1.14 goals per match against similarly ranked opponents. Juve Stabia, on the road, averages 1.33 goals conceded and 0.87 scored, suggesting a tighter game. The model projects a 45% chance of a home win, 31% for a draw, and 24% for an away win, with the home side the clear favourite. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Recent form adds intrigue: Sampdoria return from a draw, while Juve Stabia come off two defeats. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Over 19.5 fouls (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.1% edge 3), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% edge 4), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Sampdoria, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the predicted home win. The final score was 1-2, giving the away side a win that the model had not anticipated. The model’s pick was Home win with a 45% probability, but it proved wrong. The suggested picks all came to fruition except one: Under 7.5 (99.9% hit), Under 6.5 (99.5% hit), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% hit), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7% hit), Under 5.5 (98.1% hit), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% hit), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% hit) were correct, while Over 19.5 fouls (98.7% miss) was the only miss. Sampdoria’s recent run of LDLWD and Juve Stabia’s WLLDW set the stage, yet the away side’s 2-1 victory over the home team overturned expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sampdoria win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied 50.0% · @ 1.86
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.92
Dafabet
1.92
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.23
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.32
10Bet
3.30
Juve Stabia win✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.39
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.86
Betano
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sampdoria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.17
1.14
1.00
0.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
1.17
1.14
1.00
0.69
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Juve Stabia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juve Stabia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.20
1.47
1.07
0.87
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.20
1.47
1.07
0.87
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.1%
@ 1.41-0.4%
Under 1.5
33.9%
@ 2.79+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.0%
@ 2.29-3.1%
Under 2.5
62.0%
@ 1.60+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.33
Under
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
BetVictor
1.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.3%
@ 4.29-3.6%
Under 3.5
81.7%
@ 1.20+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.5%
@ 2.03-1.3%
No
55.5%
@ 1.71+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
2.06
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.05
No
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.02+6.8%
1-0
13.2%@ 5.46+5.1%
0-0
12.3%@ 7.22+6.1%
2-0
9.6%@ 7.53+3.7%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.12+3.0%
0-1
8.5%@ 9.32+3.7%
1-2 ✓
5.7%@ 13.87+2.5%
0-2
4.3%@ 21.27+2.3%
Sampdoria goals ↓
Juve Stabia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.5%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.6%
8.5%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.2%
3.7%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sampdoria goals (down), columns = Juve Stabia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Sampdoria is 0.18 points worse than Juve Stabia in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Sampdoria is 0.25 goals worse than Juve Stabia in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Sampdoria is 0.07 goals worse than Juve Stabia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Sampdoria is 2.7 percentage points worse than Juve Stabia in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sampdoria
For 6.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 19.5 · Total 32.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juve Stabia
For 3.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 16.3 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sampdoria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.0
4.9
5.2
4.7
32.9
35.0
30.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.2
9.4
9.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
32.7
34.9
30.9
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
-
5.3
8.0
0.0
36.5
36.5
-
% over line
43%
42%
44%
72%
67%
77%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
57%
58%
56%
28%
33%
23%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Juve Stabia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juve Stabia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.9
8.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
30.1
30.7
29.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
9.1
9.9
8.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
30.1
30.7
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
44%
32%
70%
64%
76%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
62%
56%
68%
30%
36%
24%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.3
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
10.0
Palermo
9.5
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.9
Avellino
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Ascoli
32.7
Sampdoria
32.7
Avellino
31.0
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Juve Stabia
30.1
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.9
Modena
28.6
Carrarese
28.4
Benevento
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.3
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.3%
@ 2.05-1.9%
Under 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.69+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.7%
@ 1.59+13.3%
Under 3.5
28.3%
@ 2.23-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
96.5%
Under 21.5
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sampdoria or Draw✗ Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied 78.7% · @ 1.19
Edge
-4.7%
45%
31%
24%
covers Sampdoria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Sampdoria or Juve Stabia✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.30
Edge
-4.2%
45%
31%
24%
covers Sampdoria + Juve Stabia
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Draw or Juve Stabia✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.89
Edge
+8.9%
45%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Juve Stabia
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.5%
@ 1.23-5.9%
Under
30.5%
@ 3.77+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.35
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Sampdoria over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.3%
@ 2.15-10.2%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.65+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Sampdoria over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 4.65-8.2%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.16+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Sampdoria over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 10.66-5.5%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
9.10
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Juve Stabia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.6%
@ 1.63+1.5%
Under
41.4%
@ 2.17-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Juve Stabia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
22.1%
@ 4.18-0.2%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.20+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.59
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Juve Stabia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 11.60-2.2%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Juve Stabia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 40.50-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sampdoria, so a minus line means Sampdoria give that many goals of a start and Juve Stabia receive them. At -1, Sampdoria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sampdoria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sampdoria)Actual: Juve Stabia
Sampdoria -2
6.2%
@ 7.65-5.5%
Draw -2
12.4%
@ 5.17-4.8%
Juve Stabia +2
81.4%
@ 1.26+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Draw
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Sampdoria)Actual: Juve Stabia
Sampdoria -1
18.6%
@ 3.41-7.4%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.36-3.4%
Juve Stabia +1
58.3%
@ 1.87+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Superbet
3.45
Betfair
3.30
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Handicap +1 (Sampdoria)Actual: Draw
Sampdoria +1
74.0%
@ 1.19-0.9%
Draw +1
16.8%
@ 5.45+0.4%
Juve Stabia -1
9.2%
@ 10.23+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.55
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Sampdoria)Actual: Sampdoria
Sampdoria +2
90.8%
@ 1.03-0.7%
Draw +2
6.9%
@ 15.00+0.6%
Juve Stabia -2
2.3%
@ 42.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sampdoria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.12
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.27
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.12
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Juve Stabia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juve Stabia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.33
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.33
0.47
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.0%
@ 1.48+2.1%
Under 0.5
35.0%
@ 2.51-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.64
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.6%
@ 3.26+1.0%
Under 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.31-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Under
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.9%
@ 8.62-1.9%
Under 2.5
91.1%
@ 1.05+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.3%
@ 1.93-5.8%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.79+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.66-4.7%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.10+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.50-3.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Juve Stabia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 2.90+5.2%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.36-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.20
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Juve Stabia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 10.74-0.7%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Juve Stabia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 50.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sampdoria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.56
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Juve Stabia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juve Stabia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.93
0.73
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.73
0.93
0.73
0.40
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.6%
@ 1.31+7.3%
Under 0.5
21.4%
@ 3.26-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.8%
@ 2.43+0.4%
Under 1.5
61.2%
@ 1.51-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 5.60-2.1%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Betano
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.3%
@ 1.67-3.4%
Under
47.7%
@ 2.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.15
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 4.17-5.2%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.19+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.96
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.33-5.1%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Juve Stabia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.0%
@ 2.32-0.8%
Under
61.0%
@ 1.54+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Juve Stabia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.8%
@ 7.92+0.1%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.05-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
8.20
1xBet
8.20
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Juve Stabia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 33.00-97.7%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
94.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
10Bet
1.05
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.03
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.7%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
1.23
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-4.7%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.7%
1.59
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.53
-
+13.3%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-1.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sampdoria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Henderson33%
Gennaro Tutino33%
Danel Sinani0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Cicconi67%
Liam Henderson33%
Danel Sinani0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Mattia Viti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Gartenmann33%
Danel Sinani0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Liam Henderson0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danel Sinani33%
Liam Henderson33%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
Juve Stabia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marco Bellich33%
Leonardo Candellone33%
Thomas Battistella0%
Kevin Piscopo0%
Davide Buglio0%
Manuel Ricciardi0%
Christian Pierobon0%
Pietro Boer0%
Nicola Patanè0%
Saná Fernandes0%
Giulio Scuderi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Piscopo33%
Davide Buglio33%
Giulio Scuderi33%
Marco Bellich0%
Thomas Battistella0%
Leonardo Candellone0%
Manuel Ricciardi0%
Christian Pierobon0%
Pietro Boer0%
Nicola Patanè0%
Saná Fernandes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Battistella33%
Nicola Patanè33%
Marco Bellich0%
Leonardo Candellone0%
Kevin Piscopo0%
Davide Buglio0%
Manuel Ricciardi0%
Christian Pierobon0%
Pietro Boer0%
Saná Fernandes0%
Giulio Scuderi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leonardo Candellone33%
Kevin Piscopo33%
Marco Bellich0%
Thomas Battistella0%
Davide Buglio0%
Manuel Ricciardi0%
Christian Pierobon0%
Pietro Boer0%
Nicola Patanè0%
Saná Fernandes0%
Giulio Scuderi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Sampdoria's squad is €24m more valuable than Juve Stabia's (€37m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Sampdoria's attack is €11m more valuable than Juve Stabia's (€14m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Sampdoria's midfield is €2m more valuable than Juve Stabia's (€7m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Sampdoria's defence is €11m more valuable than Juve Stabia's (€17m vs €6m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese