PythiaFootballBETA
The clash between Samsunspor and Göztepe is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The probability of a win for Samsunspor sits at 39 %, a draw at 30 %, and a win for Göztepe at 31 %. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.4 % chance. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, and the model’s favourite total is 2 goals, which carries a 28 % probability.
Samsunspor, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Göztepe, on the road, averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.6 conceded against comparable teams. The match’s balance is reflected in the suggested picks: Over 19.5 fouls (94.6 %), Over 21.5 fouls (88.2 %), Over 2.5 cards (86.9 %), Under 11.5 corners (79.6 %), Under 3.5 (78.6 %), Over 23.5 fouls (78.2 %), and Over 3.5 cards (72.5 %). Each selection stands on its own probability, independent of the result probabilities. The model’s selection points to a tightly contested game, with Samsunspor’s recent win and Göztepe’s recent defeat adding to the intrigue.
Samsunspor’s recent win over Rizespor keeps their momentum alive, while Göztepe’s defeat to Gençlerbirliği shows a dip in form. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved accurate as Samsunspor secured a 3-0 victory. The pre-match probability for a home win was 39 %. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 19.5 fouls (94.6 %) came through, as did Over 21.5 fouls (88.2 %), Over 2.5 cards (86.9 %), Under 11.5 corners (79.6 %), Under 3.5 (78.6 %), Over 23.5 fouls (78.2 %), and Over 3.5 cards (72.5 %). Each of these high-confidence picks performed as expected, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this fixture.
Samsunspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.44 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.87 | 1.80 | 0.75 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.82 | 0.64 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Göztepe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.97 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.29 | 0.67 | 1.64 | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Göztepe goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
SamsunsporGöztepeSamsunspor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 26.2 | 27.1 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.7 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 26.3 | 26.0 | 26.7 |
| vs Similar (25) | 10.4 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 27.1 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 9.2 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 27.1 |
| % over line | 54% | 48% | 61% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 80% | 87% | 74% |
| % under line | 46% | 52% | 39% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 20% | 13% | 26% |
Göztepe| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 26.7 | 26.4 | 27.0 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 26.9 |
| vs Similar (32) | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 26.9 | 27.1 | 26.8 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 9.2 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 25.8 | 22.5 | 28.0 |
| % over line | 44% | 46% | 42% | 64% | 71% | 58% | 90% | 92% | 88% |
| % under line | 56% | 54% | 58% | 36% | 29% | 42% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
Samsunspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Göztepe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Samsunspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.75 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 1.12 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 0.36 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Göztepe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/03/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 4-3 | |
| 07/04/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/11/22 | H | 1-0 |
Samsunspor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Göztepe| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 30 | +47 | 3.1 | 85% | 68% | 41% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.6 | 56% | 23.7 | 71% | 260 | 151 | 43 | 66 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 62% |
| 2 |  Fenerbahçe | 34 | 74 | 62% | 2.2 | 77 | 37 | +40 | 3.4 | 88% | 65% | 53% | 11.1 | 62% | 6.2 | 82% | 26.4 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 3 |  Trabzonspor | 34 | 69 | 59% | 2.0 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 2.9 | 79% | 56% | 26% | 9.8 | 47% | 4.4 | 53% | 26.1 | 76% | 116 | 48 | 23 | 45 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 34 | 60 | 50% | 1.8 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 10.1 | 50% | 5.4 | 76% | 25.6 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 5 |  Başakşehir | 34 | 57 | 47% | 1.7 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 2.7 | 82% | 62% | 24% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.8 | 73% | 26.5 | 88% | 75 | 36 | 13 | 26 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 6 | Göztepe | 34 | 55 | 41% | 1.6 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 2.2 | 71% | 41% | 18% | 9.4 | 47% | 5.4 | 68% | 27.6 | 94% | 80 | 42 | 24 | 15 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 38% |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 51 | 38% | 1.5 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 2.7 | 76% | 56% | 32% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.1 | 91% | 56 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 8 |  Rizespor | 34 | 41 | 29% | 1.2 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 2.9 | 76% | 59% | 35% | 8.8 | 47% | 4.5 | 61% | 26.9 | 85% | 49 | 18 | 10 | 21 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Konyaspor | 34 | 40 | 29% | 1.2 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 2.7 | 91% | 56% | 24% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.9 | 68% | 25.1 | 79% | 37 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 34 | 37 | 21% | 1.1 | 41 | 41 | +0 | 2.4 | 74% | 47% | 29% | 8.4 | 35% | 4.8 | 64% | 27.2 | 82% | 42 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 11 |  Kocaelispor | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 1.9 | 56% | 26% | 12% | 8.1 | 29% | 4.9 | 62% | 28.7 | 94% | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 12 |  Gaziantep FK | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 3.0 | 91% | 68% | 26% | 10.2 | 50% | 5.9 | 85% | 29.7 | 94% | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 13 |  Kasımpaşa | 34 | 35 | 24% | 1.0 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 2.4 | 71% | 44% | 21% | 8.7 | 32% | 5.3 | 71% | 28.8 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 14 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 34 | 26% | 1.0 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 2.4 | 65% | 53% | 21% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 58% | 26.9 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 43% |
| 15 |  Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 24% | 1.0 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 2.4 | 68% | 47% | 18% | 9.3 | 38% | 4.8 | 69% | 27.1 | 79% | 36 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 16 |  Antalyaspor | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.6 | 65% | 50% | 29% | 9.8 | 59% | 5.6 | 70% | 27.3 | 88% | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 30 | 24% | 0.9 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 2.5 | 76% | 47% | 18% | 8.9 | 41% | 4.0 | 62% | 28.1 | 94% | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 18 |  Kayserispor | 34 | 30 | 18% | 0.9 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 32% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.4 | 70% | 26.0 | 82% | 27 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 47% |