In this match between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall, the home team's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak. This narrative sets the stage for a Sandviken victory.
The model predicts a home win with a 57% probability, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 19%. The most likely match result is indeed a home win, with an expected total of 3 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 11.3% probability.
Sandviken has been scoring 1 goal on average at home and conceding 1.5, while facing weaker opponents. Conversely, GIF Sundsvall scores 1 goal on average when playing away against stronger opponents, and concedes 2 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, and other suggested picks include Under 21.5 fouls (97.6%), Over 1.5 (80.8% with a 3% edge), and no other selections are provided. The home win percentage is 57%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 19%.
The win extends Sandviken's run, having now gone two games unbeaten. The final score was a resounding 5-0 in favour of the home team, confirming the actual result of a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given the 57% probability of success. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, as it was the model's prediction, with an 80.8% probability. The model's call on the most likely total goals, 2, missed, as the actual score was significantly higher.
Sandviken| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.67 | 2.07 | 1.36 | 0.94 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.43 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.23 | 0.87 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
GIF Sundsvall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 2.07 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 0.67 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.57 | 2.29 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.06 | 1.88 | 1.50 | 2.17 | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-19pp vs league) | |||||
| GIF Sundsvall goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Sandviken
GIF Sundsvall
Sandviken| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 22.6 | 21.8 | 23.8 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 10.3 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 22.1 | 20.8 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 16.0 | 16.0 | - | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | - |
| % over line | 42% | 38% | 45% | 16% | 21% | 12% | 63% | 45% | 88% |
| % under line | 58% | 62% | 55% | 84% | 79% | 88% | 37% | 55% | 12% |
GIF Sundsvall| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 20.7 | 18.6 | 22.4 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 10.7 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 18.5 | 17.8 | 19.5 |
| vs Similar (28) | 8.8 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 24.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 45% | 22% | 62% | 10% | 4% | 16% | 39% | 25% | 50% |
| % under line | 55% | 78% | 38% | 90% | 96% | 84% | 61% | 75% | 50% |
Sandviken| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.93 | 1.14 | 0.79 | 0.25 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.64 | 0.93 | 1.08 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
GIF Sundsvall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.23 | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.29 | 1.14 | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.19 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Sandviken| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.79 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
GIF Sundsvall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 1.23 | 0.73 | 1.33 | 0.47 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.29 | 1.14 | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.88 | 1.31 | 1.17 | 1.67 | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 92.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.2% | 1.41 | 1.48 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.32 | - | +7.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 09/08/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/05/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/11/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/05/24 | A | 0-0 |
Sandviken| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 28/06/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 22/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/06/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 09/06/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
GIF Sundsvall| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 21/06/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 15/06/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 10/06/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 20 | 44 | 70% | 2.2 | 38 | 12 | +26 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 20% | 9.4 | 44% | 3.4 | 56% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 55% |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 20 | 35 | 50% | 1.8 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 3.3 | 90% | 70% | 40% | 9.1 | 44% | 1.8 | 11% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 19 | 34 | 53% | 1.8 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 3.1 | 79% | 68% | 42% | 7.8 | 36% | 3.9 | 64% | 30.8 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 20 | 34 | 45% | 1.7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.5 | 75% | 40% | 25% | 8.7 | 44% | 3.3 | 56% | 25.7 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 5 | United Nordic | 20 | 32 | 40% | 1.6 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 2.9 | 85% | 45% | 35% | 9.1 | 57% | 2.7 | 29% | 29.8 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 | Landskrona BoIS | 20 | 30 | 40% | 1.5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 10.1 | 43% | 3.7 | 43% | 28.2 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 58% |
| 7 | Oddevold | 20 | 29 | 35% | 1.4 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 3.0 | 75% | 60% | 45% | 10.1 | 50% | 2.4 | 22% | 25.4 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 8 | Osters IF | 19 | 29 | 47% | 1.5 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 3.1 | 74% | 68% | 42% | 11.8 | 89% | 2.9 | 33% | 24.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 | Sandviken | 20 | 26 | 35% | 1.3 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 3.1 | 75% | 65% | 40% | 9.6 | 33% | 2.4 | 11% | 23.0 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 20 | 25 | 35% | 1.2 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 3.6 | 95% | 70% | 50% | 9.8 | 75% | 5.0 | 80% | 26.0 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 11 | Ljungskile SK | 20 | 24 | 30% | 1.2 | 27 | 27 | +0 | 2.7 | 65% | 50% | 40% | 10.2 | 56% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.6 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 12 | Norrby IF | 20 | 23 | 20% | 1.1 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 2.6 | 80% | 45% | 35% | 7.3 | 33% | 2.3 | 33% | 21.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 13 | IK brage | 20 | 21 | 25% | 1.1 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 3.6 | 80% | 75% | 50% | 8.8 | 38% | 4.2 | 67% | 27.3 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 48% |
| 14 | IFK Varnamo | 20 | 19 | 25% | 0.9 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 3.1 | 75% | 60% | 45% | 8.2 | 22% | 2.9 | 22% | 24.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 19 | 16 | 16% | 0.8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 2.6 | 68% | 47% | 32% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 38% | 23.3 | 67% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 19 | 10 | 16% | 0.5 | 14 | 43 | -29 | 3.0 | 74% | 63% | 37% | 9.8 | 67% | 2.6 | 22% | 20.5 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 41% |